Westminsterenders: Don't Panic. Really Don't Panic. Honestly Don't Panic.

[RedToothBrush]

Brexit invoked the spirit of WWII's Churchill. Instead its shaping up to be more like Gallipolli...

...if Gallipolli had been instigated by Captain Mainwaring not Churchill.

The point has come where the exit button is being hit by businesses. Everywhere. In the absence of certainity they have no alternative. Its costing them a fortune already. Ford reported today that fortune was $800 billion. And amongst all the other problems widewide it was facing, which mean it is looking to cut costs, it looks grim for their 14,000 workers in the UK if we end up with no deal.

And still Esther does a video about how we should love WTO terms and a Tory MEP says Airbus's latest warnings are just Project Fear II. Its easy to say that if its not your job on the line I guess. Or your life.

And now the narrative of the prefect brexit has moved on. Again. At the start it was 'all the benefits of the EU minus migration, then 'a Norway style deal', then we went to 'Canada Plus is best, then 'lets no deal and go to WTO'. The latest is 'oh well we can ignore WTO rules at the start because they won't catch up with us for 18 months'. The absence of a plan and the hatred for the EU is growing in a worrying fashion, and there shouldn't be any doubt of where it seeks to go.

Jacob Rees-Mogg yesterday stated that May should prerogue parliament to ensure Brexit. Even though he is fully aware that the legislation even to enable WTO in the event of no deal is not in place. This is about as far removed from democracy as you can go, before you actively start openly advocating for its removal. This desire to close parliament had previously been expressed by one Tory MP and has since been repeated by David Jones MP and is liable to become the next big Brexiteer trope. Indeed reading twitter BEFORE JRM declaration, this view to shut down parliament was already being widely expressed.

Indeed one anonymous senior Tory MP has remarked this week; “If you knock on a door and they have books on their shelves, you can be pretty sure these days they’re not voting Tory”.

So people are stockpiling quietly. They are hoarding what medication they can. They are ridiculed in the media for it. And yet with government advice to business and the increasing awareness of supply chain problems, visa issues and the effect of Brexit on the GFA people are getting more and more concerned and nervous. Its almost as if government doesn't understand the mechanics of how the country functions.

People understand what is happening. They are the people who keep the production lines running and they are the people who ensure that people are fed and healthy and are kept safe. They aren't 'experts' just experts in their own lives and reality.

We move into next week with attempt two of May trying to get the WA through parliament. It still seems inconceivable she can at this stage. But who knows?

Parliament is moving to try and remove no deal from the table. The Cooper- Boles Amendment is the one to watch. Despite this stopping no deal is still beyond their control under certain circumstances. No deal happens on 29th March regardless of whether we are ready. Unless we extend or revoke, and extending is beyond the scope of our parliament alone. And extending still fails to remove the threat of no deal at a later stage. It merely prolongs the agony and uncertainty. We are in desparate need of a resolution which formerly ties us closely to the EU in whatever form that comes.

On the other hand, there are moves tonight for a Murrison II amendment to end the backstop that is being backed by both Graham Brady and close May ally and deal supporter Damien Green. This is in contrast to the EU who today have doubled down in saying the backstop is none negogiable and the WA will not be ratified by the EU if there are changes to the backstop. So it looks like we may be headed for a collision course on this, which could result in No Deal.

We are now also told from a senior government source, that Theresa May has had, in the last few days, "a lightbulb moment as to the impact of no-deal on British manufacturing." as if this is supposed to reassure us. This is 2 and a half years after she became Prime Minister.

Its only a matter of time before national anxieties across the country progress into full on outright panic. We are getting very close to that moment.

For our sanity and for all our futures we need this government to take back control from the ERG and their ilk who are leading us down a path to destruction. Before its too late.

Announced today - Full story on the bbc ......
Pregnant women and parents returning to work will receive greater protection from redundancy under new plans.
The government proposes extending legal protection against redundancy for pregnant women for six months after they return to work.
The protections could also be extended to others, including men, who return from adoption or shared parental leave.
Theresa May said: "It's unacceptable that too many parents still encounter difficulties when returning to work."

Gosh - I thought we only had workers rights because of the blessed, wonderment that is the EU???

I'll help:

The ones that ds came up with (all contestable, but that's the point of tutorials )

1. Ability to strike customised trade deals countered with the fact that the larger population of the EU can get better ones and has Most Favoured Nation clauses so the UK can't get better deals than the EU already has. Plus Germany already manages to do massively more external business than the UK does, so it's not the trade deals that are the problem, it's what the UK has to trade/how it does it that is the problem

1. The UK can stop paying the c£170 million/week into the EU it's late, I can't remember what the net figure was Countered with this was only 0.7% of GDP, which has already been more than balanced/lost in the growth of GDP that we have lost already during this Brexit process, with worse to come

1. We can allow more Commomwealth immigrants to come in instead of EU immigrants No real counter for this but not exactly what many Leavers voted for (also doesn't really address the fact that the EU immigrants are net contributors and that the UK didn't use the controls it did have)

An unofficial 4th that ds chose not to use as it's not really a benefit for the UK but more one that he saw as a potential benefit:

1. Will bring about Scottish independence quicker (I know Louise will just love that one )

The benefits for the EU that he came up with were:

1. The EU no longer has to thole obstructive UKIP MEPs

1. The EU can get the trade deal with India closed off.

1. E27 countries will benefit from the relocation of not just EU institutions such as the EMA and EBA, but businesses relocating in whole or in part to ensure that they can continue to operate in the EU.

People asked for 3 benefits....I gave 3 benefits.

Brexit means brexit so I delivered brexit.

@ Bigchoc, that’s my point “would cost” Reds summary reads that it has already cost $800 billion. That’s why I called out this inaccuracy

1. is just the status quo
2. is the case anyway unless you’re on about widgets, bananas or dodgy contracts
3. let’s leave the Solar System to avoid possible future nasty policy decisions by other planets that might affect us adversely

And yes, I think I’m funny.

@prettybird. I prefer mine, thanks. Oh and so far as I’m concerned if Scotland votes democratically to become independent at some future point, then that’s what should happen. I’m a unionist, no question about it but self-determination is vital.

Marking a place.

Massive damage to UK trade, job losses, brain drain, businesses fleeing abroad, Sterling crash, price rises,
savage slashing of the defence budget btw except for troops ....

Would ordinary people really think those 3 abstract benefits are worth the economic damage?
Only if you are really rich and / or plan to flee abroad

iirc, Veteran leaver RNorth tried to estimate No Deal costs on one blog and came up with 300-400 billion, yes billion not million.
The sort of damage that one would normally only think to accept in a war of survival against Russia, say.

Louise. I agree with your benefits.

Singing. That is interesting and heartening about Allen and Field. Is this the birth of the new Centrist Party?

I take your point Louise but I don’t think those things outweigh the negatives.

I have a case at the moment (lawyer) which would be resolved better and quicker with the ECJ out of the equation. The ruling could be more nuanced and more tuned into the culture of this country.

For me that’s just not a good enough reason to leave the UK

Hmm. I remember that parliament taking back control was a big thing. And yet we have the government being held in contempt of parliament and JRM blithely suggesting if it tries to exert control on Brexit the government should shut it down.
I'm not really getting the sense that parliament taking back control if high on the Brexit agenda after all.

Noname Look at the promises of the ERG and the Tory right for a "Bonfire of Workers Rights"
May's fancy words have the political lifespan of a mayfly
She'll be gone before workers can actually benefit from those fancy words.

After the economy crashes, it doesn't matter even if those high ideals - from those who gave us UC - are sincere
there will be no money

Business will be struggling to survive with their current costs, never mind taking on new commitments

Or even the EU.!

borntobequiet, you made me laugh so I'm officially declaring you funny.

I thought we only had workers rights because of the blessed, wonderment that is the EU

Nah, the EU was only ever there to suggest (politely) to governments that maybe they should, perhaps, consider that workers rights were a good thing. But then I'm in a profession which apparently "opted out" of the EU Working Time Directive, so I've never had a lot of faith in the ability of the EU to protect workers' rights.

The EU put in some minimum standards - which the UK usually fought against all the way and secured some optouts

So because Britain is so special, UK workers have the privilege of being able to opt out of working more than 48 hours
Of course, many British workers would be refused their job at interview, if they aren't prepared to sign the optout.

That's true British grit

First, the elected politicians we put in the House of Commons will vote on what our laws will be, and if we don’t like what they do we can vote to remove them.

Except that's not really working out too well at the moment for a huge variety of reasons.

Plus if our MEPs got off their arses and did some work we'd be making the laws in the EU and opposing things that didnt suit us so well better. The attendance of MEPs and their involvement in EU law is a scandal, yet they are not held to account for it, and instead the mere existence of the institution is blamed for their laziness.

Second, the UK Supreme Court, with judges we appoint will become the highest legal authority in the country if we ensure there is no recourse to the ECJ

I don't particularly have an issue with the ECJ. Quite the opposite. Very few cases are referred to the ECJ in any case. The Supreme Court is sufficient in most cases anyway and often is in alignment with the ECJ anyway.

Third, outside the EU we are far less likely to be negatively affected by future EU policy decisions we don’t like. If we stay in, we might object to these but cannot prevent because of reduced veto powers and more use of Qualified Majority Voting.

But we will have even less influence outside the EU and will be at the mercy of other countries minus the power and influence of EU nations to back us up, when it does suit us. See Gibraltar or Falklands for good examples of where it works OK for us.

On balance those things all are not anywhere as bad as you make out and the alternative really isn't much better anyway.

borntobequiet I think you’re funny too and we definitely need a bit of funny atm...

Where the UK has fought against EU policy decisions is usually in the social chapter,

which MrsT and every rightwing Tory since have hated
because it gives basic rights to workers and the Uk only managed to opt out of a few of them
No Uk govt can slash the ones we couldn't opt out of

They want the "Bonfire of Workers Rights" which Priti Patel promised them after Brexit
No Deal will deliver up British workers on a plate

The TUC has written of how workers have used EU law - usually decided at UK court level without reference to the ECJ - to defend their rights

Fair enough Red if that’s your view. I’ve argued the case for these at length on previous threads, I was asked to state “incontestable” benefits and I think I have done so.

“Second, the UK Supreme Court, with judges we appoint will become the highest legal authority in the country if we ensure there is no recourse to the ECJ

I don't particularly have an issue with the ECJ. Quite the opposite. Very few cases are referred to the ECJ in any case. The Supreme Court is sufficient in most cases anyway and often is in alignment with the ECJ anyway. “

My field is rife with referrals to the ECJ. But I think the benefits outweigh the bureaucracy

“2) is the case anyway unless you’re on about widgets, bananas or dodgy contracts”

‘Tisnt.

Those benefits are certainly contestable if they come at the price of destroying the economy

Before Brexit, it was the leftwing revolutionaries whom I regarded as dangerous for being so impractical,
for wanting their ideals at the price of ruining the lives of ordinary people by making htem much poorer.

Now it's the rightwing revolutionaries.

Ivan Rogers in his lectures has described Brexit as a revolution and how the revolutionaries are following classic patterns

If we have No Deal Brexit, then in a few years people will be shaking their heads over the destruction of a once powerful economy, just like we are shaking our heads now over Venezuela.

You don't solve people's problems and improve their lives by forcing them to become poorer
(unashamed capitalist speaking here)