Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

[RedToothBrush]

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

Oybbk it seems the Guardian are listening to our confused queries

Here's a summary of amendments and possible amendments

amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/21/from-backstop-tweaks-to-no-no-deal-possible-amendments-to-mays-next-brexit-motion?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other&__twitter_impression=true
From backstop tweaks to no no-deal: possible amendments to May's next Brexit motion
Several MPs are likely to put forward amendments to PM’s motion on next Brexit steps

{ wilfully ignorant about how bad No Deal would be}
Attempting to explain on another thread that leaving doesn't mean the UK can do 'handshake' deals because French farmers will still want to sell apples. It does actually need regulation (of course).

Misti If the WA were passed, it would be a no-brainer, a formality, for the EU to grant sufficient extension for the HoC to pass all the additional legislation required.

Yes, absolutely, but the government will have to ask for it and it will have to be unilaterally agreed. IMO this means that May can't take this right to the wire.

I think the end game is getting underway now.

unilaterally should read unanimously - need to go to bed lol

French farmers will still want to sell apples.

I know we are not allowed to say the S word but ... apples won't be coming from France in April.

John Rentoul @johnrentoul
Long, counter-intuitive from @pietercleppe of @OpenEurope: EU could renegotiate the backstop

capx.co/renegotiation-is-the-eus-worst-option-except-for-all-the-others/
Renegotiation is the EU’s worst option except for all the others

Liam Young @ liamyoung
Telegraph reporting that CCHQ has been put on an election footing and told to get their resources together. BUT... they can’t get the big donors to back another Theresa May led campaign.

Oh happy days 😃

Steven Swinford @steven_swinford
EXCLUSIVE

Theresa May's chief Brexit negotiator allegedly cast doubt on her ability to renegotiate backstop as part of Brexit "plan B" Telegraph told

Source says Olly Robbins texted Philip Hammond DURING Cabinet conference call on Sun raising concerns

One source told Telegraph that Robbins said in text to Hammond that NI Protocol was not up for renegotiation

Most ministers on call on Sunday were not even aware Robbins was on the line.

Govt source confirmed text exchange but said Robbins' message was 'misrepresented'

Re-opening the EU withdrawal agreement to remove/renegotiate the backstop remains a red line for many Tory Eurosceptics and the DUP.

Robbins text - as PM was spelling out renewed focus on backstop - suggests that other solutions to issue may be needed

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/21/theresa-mays-chief-brexit-negotiator-cast-doubt-plan-b-textto/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Theresa May's chief Brexit negotiator cast doubt over her 'Plan B' in text to Philip Hammond

Guardian and Express going with the same subject of a 2nd ref causing civil unrest

William Hague has a column in the telegraph in which he says he thinks a 2nd ref is inevitable which he doesn't like.

@Steven_Swinford

EXCLUSIVE

CCHQ put on election footing and told it needs to have the 'resources in place' in event PM is defeated

Sir Mick Davies, chief exec of the Tory Party, briefed officials this morning

BUT I'm told Tories struggling to get donors to back another Theresa May campaign...

Paul Brand @paulbranditv
NEW: Understand Tory MPs unlikely to back Labour front bench amendment. One rebel campaigning for a People's Vote says they want Labour to stick to conference motion and get on with campaigning for one rather than this multifaceted amendment. Unlikely to pass in that case.

Another Tory MP texts to say they won't support it. Seems like a non-starter in that case. Tory rebels sticking with Grieve/Cooper.

LATEST: Soubry, Allen, Wollaston won't back Labour amendment. So that's that then.

The donor story just means Tory members (MPs) will have to stick their hands into their own pockets for once.

But it is a big deal if they are having issues like that. Having deep pockets for election campaigns is how the Tory Election Machine works.

www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/no-deal-brexit-flight-cancellations-iata-travel-eu-uk-airports-cancelled-a8738911.html?amp&utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true
NO-DEAL BREXIT COULD FORCE THE CANCELLATIONS OF UP TO 5 MILLION FLIGHTS
Iata said that airlines 'do not know' what type of Brexit they are planning for

They won't quit. Its all mouth and no trousers!

Thanks for that link, Red. I missed some of what the DUP MPs said in the NI security questions (I was reading this thread and I find some accents difficult if I'm not concentrating) but from the Secretary's answers I guessed the questions were attempting to cast aspersions on Ireland's commitment to security.

It's hard to understand the DUP's position on the backstop - position of alignment between NI and UK I understand, so they should be quite happy to vote for the WA that way, they get their no border (important for the NI economy, and apparently a lot of their vote is from the business community) and their alignment, so I'm not sure what the problem is. Do they not trust Westminster governments to stay aligned with them once the deals are all done? Is it NI having any kind of special status within the UK?

Wales, England and Scotland should all apply for special status. Then you could all remain.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3486036-Westminstenders-Red-Squirrels-are-British-Groundhogs-are-not?watched=1
New Thread cos I'm off to bed, and have a busy morning tomorrow.

Fuck's sake. I have never been so pessimistic about the future. I had to send a ranty email to BBC Berkshire's breakfast show this morning - they had John Redwood on, and allowed him to spout at least four bald faced lies. No challenge. None. We are never going to get out of this unholy mess until the home truths are spelt out and the lies are called out, repeatedly, unrelentingly.

I want to be planning my summer holiday, not holding fire because I'm anticipating fucking civil unrest, troops on the streets and empty supermarkets. I want to be spending my money on nice things, not sodding chest freezers and 25kg sodding bags of flour. I want to feel like we have someone in charge of the country that cares about the country, not someone who is driving us apparently remorselessly to economic armageddon. I want to know that I'll have a job in a year's time, not losing million pound deals to 'market uncertainty'. I want my Mum to be able to fight her cancer, not worrying that in seven weeks time her chemo drugs won't be able to get in the sodding country. FUCKERS.

Sleep well, Red.

/May/ have got a little ranty there, sorry.

And yes, thank you Red. I would being going even more mad without these threads.

Chickens, that's an excellent post. There's a Brexit for posterity thread, I think you should post the very same on there. It sums things up very well.

Good idea - I will!

Lucky holidays are an option couldn't fit a freezer in my tiny bungalow. Haven't any spare cupboards to stockpile much. Haven't got money to do Amy of the aforementioned. But I suppose it could be worse..........

P.s sorry about your mum whereareyourchickens I have same worry too

Leona O'Neill @leonaoneill1
Police have evacuated families from homes in the Northland and Glen Road areas in #Deery after a hijacked Asda delivery van was abandoned in the middle of the road. Most of the homes are pensioner’s bungalows

3rd security issue today.

Anyway. Bed.

Sorry I meant wherearemychickens

I'm sorry Sostenueto too - and I realise that we are in many ways lucky in our position. I can afford to stock up; we have the space to store it and the money to buy it. I know that not everybody is in that position, and it makes me so, so angry that people are having to worry about basic food and medicine supplies without the resources to do much about it. I want to live in a society that looks after all of its people.