Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

[RedToothBrush]

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

Can a freedom of information request be put forward that asks how many NDAs are in place and with who?

No idea what the parameters of FOI requests are

FOI is only on public sector bodies

and Businesses are keeping a lower profile because of what BoJo said last year

I find it difficult to believe that a WA defeated by a record 230 votes can be approved before 29 March

If someone held a gun to your head how long would it take for you change your mind?

I don't rule it out on this basis although it seems unlikely. Its about how worried MPs genuinely are about no deal and how stubborn they think May is.

So what are the penalties for breaking an NDA? Swingeing fines? Consignment to the oubliette? A tea party and small talk with Theresa May?
At the point where businesses are set to lose billions, and millions of people might lose their jobs, why so quiet? (And I approve of quiet, naturally.)

Just idle musing, but how come the threat of violence (dressed up as a threat to "social cohesion") any different than the threat from "terrorism" ? Which of course is something the government will never bow to ?

Because it suits their agenda of course.

borntobe
I suspect Nissan are VERY tempted to release the letter they were given by TM just after she became leader
and
YYY you could end up in court
but if all the big companies did it at once
for the common good
could be interesting

Born, I suggested a couple of reasons a few posts back. As a business you never reveal anything you don't have to otherwise competitors can take advantage.

It's not just the WA though is it? They need to get a whole lot of legislation through both houses. I find it hard to believe that even if parliament coalesces rapidly around the WA that everything can be in place for 29/3.

This is utterly depressing.

I have a question - how can I find out the text of questions that were asked in the HoC today?

{but if all the big companies did it at once
for the common good
could be interesting}
I suggested this a few weeks back but it would take careful planning and like the 'pairing' in government some might not play ball properly. Remember apart from Brexit, they are also thinking on the world stage.
The Tories might be contemplating the fluff in their navel but business is way ahead of them (usually).

Beth Rigby@bethrigby
NEW: @YvetteCooperMP bill just out. Gives PM until Feb 26 to get her deal through. If she fails, Parliament will be able to direct next steps. Bill will give Parliament a vote to prevent No Deal & vote on whether to extend A50 and for how long. Backed by Boles, Letwin, Morgan

And... NEW: Labour tables own amendment, ruling out No Deal and with two options: 1) A Norway style arrangement with ‘comprehensive customs union’ anstrong single market deal’ 2) Option of a public vote > Corbyn wants option 1....

But... suspect many Labour MPs will see this as important step forward. Frontbench clear there are only two options now - close ec relationship or public vote. This first time frontbench will vote for an amendment with an explicit #peoplesvote option.

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
And the next one ... amendments coming thick and fast tonight - remember it will be up to Speaker to decide which gets debated, and those who put them forward can withdraw them too so none or all could be voted on ...

Hilary Benn @hilarybennmp
Just tabled an amendment for next week’s Brexit debate calling for the House of Commons to hold a series of indicative votes on a way forward. These should cover the four options identified in the @CommonsEUexit report published last Wednesday (attached).

Benn's amendment reflects the recommendation of the Brexit Select Committee whilst Cooper's is cross party and officially backed by the opposition. Hard to see Bercow ignoring them...

have a question - how can I find out the text of questions that were asked in the HoC today?
They are on Handsard.

The EU

This is this afternoon's debate.

Ok that's better. Something that isnt a cliff edge is on the horizon...c'mon Bercow.

Look who's reared his ugly head again.

'Theresa May's former aide handed plum role helping to put on 2022 Commonwealth Games'

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-mays-former-aide-handed-13889144?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

A Norway style arrangement with ‘comprehensive customs union’ anstrong single market deal’

As Norway is in the SM but not in the CU it would be nothing like a Norway arrangement...

Labour calls for vote in Commons on holding second referendum Proposed amendment is significant shift in policy towards people’s vote on Brexit

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/21/labour-calls-for-vote-in-commons-on-holding-second-referendum

Great thread, thanks.

red The problem is that MPs don't see No DEal as a gun against their own heads ....
and our heads are far less important

For Tory MPs, the gun is splitting the party and / or a Corbyn govt

and of course, many MPs are still woefully / wilfully ignorant about how bad Nob Deal would be

Misti If the WA were passed, it would be a no-brainer, a formality, for the EU to grant sufficient extension for the HoC to pass all the additional legislation required.

red The problem is that MPs don't see No Deal as a gun against their own heads ....
and our heads are far less important

For Tory MPs, the gun is splitting the party and / or a Corbyn govt

and of course, many MPs are still woefully / wilfully ignorant about how bad No Deal would be

I need a flow chart to follow these amendments.

Oybbk, you aren't the only one! I'm struggling to keep up with this thread and all the developments!

Newspaper time.

From the Guardian article about Labour's proposal for a second referendum it seems some of the leading figures for a People's Vote are not happy. I think they are in danger of losing support from Corbyn supporters who also want a PV.

The I above talking about 40 minister quitting

And the FT reporting that Barnier is standing firm with the backstop.

The Indy proper. And the Metro.