Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

[RedToothBrush]

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

Maybe we need to start reporting posts like that from surfer and others of his/her ilk as "not being in the spirit of MN". They are evidence that they are trying to censor the discussion.

Well, as we have a new thread every 1-2 days, Westministenders really should be near the top of the active list.
permanently

Have MN deliberately chosen to remove Westministender / Brexit threads from Active, or to handicap them ?
If so, who decided and why ?

I see this thread in active conversations, but then I've blocked AIBU threads from there.

In one of his superb speeches,
Ivan Rogers:

"No developed country has left a trade bloc before, let alone in disorderly fashion,
and let alone one which has become a lot more than a trade bloc.

But I do fully understand the legal realities.
And because so-called “WTO rules” deliver precisely no continuity in multiple key sectors of the economy,

we could expect disruption on a scale and of a length that no-one has experienced in the developed world in the last couple of generations.

{ Thegirlinthefireplace Mon 21-Jan-19 19:24:05
Just seen your most recent post. "Leave them to it". Yep, sums up your attitude (and le Clerc).}

What the hell are you on?
I have made a couple of suggestions for practical things the UK could do once it leaves, which is two more than ANY of the 17 Million 'leavers' can manage.
I don't want anyone to suffer as a result of the ridiculous Brexit posturing and the inability to organise anything, which is more than can be said of the 'no deal' brigade who deliberately or by accident will cause a significant number of deaths.

We can eat lamb, plans to reduce the flock by one third have been discussed.

And Mars bars, Boris promised us Mars bars.

I'm sure someone said "There will be sufficient calories"

Pesty We'd have to eat all the cuts of lamb we currently export because we don't like them

Don't forget the jam Pesty. We will always have jam.

North West Tonight have just reported that they have heard that Jaguar Land Rover in Halewood would close completely if there was No Deal.

That fits with something I’ve read somewhere else (or possibly here tbh) Allegedly the ‘temporary’ shutdown that a number of U.K. car manufacturers are doing from the end of March is quite likely not to be temporary in the event of no Deal.

Just read Swedish's comments on TiPs censoring thread

Boris will probably give us Mars Bars with the horrid US chocolate that tastes of vomit

At least Sky are reporting the 87% - maybe my friend will be better informed tomorrow? She has selective viewing habits though...

Yes I thought same 're the 3mil non-voters! As if they'll vote for her/tories in the next election if she "honours" them!

Robert Peston...

I find him fairly spot on hence why I keep posting his updates to the thread...

"The prime minister’s plans B, C , D and E are all the same: run down the clock as close as possible to 29 March, Brexit Day, so that enough of the critics to her Brexit plan blink at the risk of either crashing out with no deal or seeing Brexit cancelled such that it passes at the last.

In two words, the Brexit strategy is "Tick Tock".

Yesterday’s conference-call cabinet meeting was a masterclass in Theresa May as bulldozer and ministers “sitting back”, according to one of them.

She outlined as her preferred course the only approach that stands a chance of keeping her party together, which I’ve been reporting on for days – namely putting all her effort into persuading the EU to amend the widely hated backstop so that it could become less toxic to her Tory Brexiter critics and Northern Ireland’s 10 DUP MPs, her bulwark against total incapacity to govern.

The attraction of this approach to her is that – unlike adopting a Brexit that could woo Labour MPs to vote for her Brexit plan – it would not cleave her party in two.

The flaws are equally obvious.

First there is little prospect right now that the EU and the Republic of Ireland will move enough – as my contacts with representatives of EU27 governments make crystal clear.

Their view is that if the UK could commit to staying in the customs union forever, then the backstop could more easily be cast as a temporary bridge. But of course the PM cannot commit to such, because the moment she would do that would be the moment 100 odd of her MPs would resign from the party.

Second it is by no means clear that the PM has the votes even if all the DUP and each of the backstop sceptics were to vote with her, because there are both Brexiter and Remainer Tory MPs who hate her deal for reasons other than the backstop – most importantly that £39bn is being handed over in a divorce payment for an uncertain long-term trading and security relationship with the EU.

So we are in a place which is profoundly unsettling to business, trade unions, many British people, and even members of the PMs own government – namely there will be another government led Brexit-negotiating process that could get us nowhere nearer settling our Brexit future.

This new leg of potentially pointless process starts this afternoon, when the PM will spell out her revised route to a deal in the form of a motion, that will then be amended by backbenchers.

There will then be votes on the amendments – the important ones probably having the effect of coercing the PM to endeavour to rule out a no-deal Brexit – on Tuesday week, 29 January.

An acceleration of talks with the EU will follow, and another “meaningful” (or potentially “meaningless”) vote on a tweaked version of the PMs Brexit plan in mid February.

By which point we will be a month from the due date for exiting the EU, and if parliament were to reject her deal we may be no nearer knowing how and even whether we are actually leaving the EU.

“The world is laughing at us” a minister said to me. “And for some reason the PM doesn’t seem bothered”."

I've got a very depressing vision of our entire supermarket looking like the American food bit in the world foods aisle. All e numbers and marshmallow fluff.

Disclaimer: I have an intense dislike for marshmallows and have never been to the US so may be both biased and unreasonable.

Bigly - you forgot, it needs to be innovative jam to qualify for export opportunities

Leclerc Problem is, it's easy to promise unicorns to everyone, or give out fine words about not letting people suffer,
but as soon as we get into cold hard options, "what precisely do we do next ?"

then all the Brexit options have a lot of losers who will be badly affected.
May did her best to get the WA, but it is an ugly offspring that only its parent likes

Unless Parliament votes to ask the EU to amend the PD to SM+CU+financial passporting +agency memberships ...
So basically EU minus the voting

JLR:
{That fits with something I’ve read somewhere else (or possibly here tbh) Allegedly the ‘temporary’ shutdown that a number of U.K. car manufacturers are doing from the end of March is quite likely not to be temporary in the event of no Deal.
I suggested ages ago that the 'temporary' shut down is a period to take stock of what is actually happening and that once the NDAs are 'released' the company bosses will be making their plans final. They no doubt will have prepared several scenarios and need to see what happens on 30 March before picking one.

So there will be jam, mars bars, lamb and Raab promised bacon sandwiches...

Where's the crisps? You know Americans don't do the variety of flavours like we do.

I want a promise of crisps from our government. All kinds, ridged, baked, popped, classic, hoops, squares. All flavours.

If anyone says twiglets are promised but not crisps I won't be happy.

I find it difficult to believe that a WA defeated by a record 230 votes can be approved before 29 March
or ever
However, a few commentators think it will be, simply because it is the only existing alternative to No Deal or Revoke.

Maybe that's why there is the talk of a long extension - to give more time for May to wear the MPs down

@red what do you think ?

So why aren’t trades unions and business talking to each other and applying pressure to politicians? Or are they, but just not saying? Where will the real resistance/coup come from?

{So why aren’t trades unions and business talking to each other and applying pressure to politicians? Or are they, but just not saying?}

Businesses probably won't because they would fear takeover moves if they show any real sign of nervousness. It would only be the 'biggies' that are perhaps niche who could do that and even then it would leave them exposed 'post Brexit'.
Unions might, but I suspect are gagged anyway.

I ho back and forth

Just to clarify: I don't "ho" at all

Well, it was interesting speculating, perverse
especially with your user name

Born to be the government is rumoured to have used lots of NDAs across the whole time frame of Brexit discussions.
It is very difficult for anyone to know what is going on. Just like in a dysfunction family scenario.

One managing director said the chair of their manufacturing industry
group had signed an NDA prior to discussions with the environment and business departments.

“The chair of the group meets with government officials but is not permitted to discuss what was said, in any form, with the companies who make up the membership,” the director said.

“He returns confirming he’s been to meetings but forbidden to say anything about how or if industry questions were answered, what form future trading may take or any other aspect they discussed. So Brexit planning and strategy, if there is any, remains hidden.”
www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/15/uk-defends-asking-firms-in-border-consultations-to-sign-secrecy-deals