Westminstenders: At the point of collapse?

[RedToothBrush]

May is in trouble. The Tory Party are in trouble.

Brexit is not in trouble, but we certainly are.

May's problem is she has no way forward.

One the one hand, the ERG will not accept anything to soften Brexit. That's an extension or Norway. Or a second ref. The story tonight emerging of Rees-Mogg as 'peacemaker' is quite the opposite. Its a thinly veiled threat saying if you do not please the ERG we will split and no longer support the PM. They will quiet simply threaten to collapse the government if May decides on that course. Their gamble will be that with the Tories ahead in the polls, they can get enough seats to enable no deal or cause enough chaos to cause accidental no deal. Thus forcing out One Nation Tories from the party.

One the other hand if May does not soften Brexit, rumour has it that 20 ministers including several cabinet, will walk. There is talk of cabinet ministers supporting a second ref and of others supporting Nick Boles proposals and demanding a free vote on the matter.

May on the other hand seemed determined to pursue plan A which is now plan B, in the form of the WA. In order to do this her plan was go for cross party talks and a compromise. The trouble is May doesn't understand what the word compromise means, because... Well see above about the two factions within the Tory Party presenting a bit of an issue to that. She felt the WA was the only way to stop the party split / stop the government collasping.

In addition to this we have Labour trying to avoid a split. Corbyn had his ridiculous starting point to cross party talks being completely impossible for May. You can't take no deal off the table if it is the table. Corbyn was essentially asking directly for a revocation or extension to A50 clause. May could not agree to that because... Well see above.

Corbyn is now talking about whipping against Grieve's amendment which sort to create a cross party consensus. Bizarrely grieves suggestion seemed to be for a minority rather than majority which rather undermined it, by Corbyn's real motivation is about his power, preventing a centre consensus and possible splits in the Labour Party.

Corbyn merely wants to be obstructive, and block everything now as he thinks May and the Conservative Party are doomed to fail and the government will fail. And arguably this is a good and sensible calculation as things stand.

May's next Meaningful vote is due on the 29th Jan. But 28th Feb is pencilled in for a general election. Meaning it would have to be called by Thursday this week.

Will it happen?

We find out, not on this thread, but the next one... Or maybe even the one after that!

PS there was a bomb in Londonderry. And there's talk of a bilateral treaty with Ireland (a euphemisms for renegotiating the GFA).

Brexit was always ultimately about NI.

Yep, everyone can just drop everything and move. If people voting remain gives them rights to remain in your eyes then that applies equally to everyone.

I know, I know, you'll tell me it's all tongue in cheek and I'm being too serious but you know what? It is ducking serious for some people.

People are worried for their jobs, their health, their kids, their homes, violence on the streets, staying fed.

Yes, I am bloody sensitive about it. Stop mocking people's fears.

I shouldn't have returned to this thread. I'm hiding it this time.

Very true, lonely
Why prioritise the once-only voters over the regulars

Just seen your most recent post. "Leave them to it". Yep, sums up your attitude (and le Clerc).

Sorry, Thegirl but other than a very small chance of Revoke, I see no good ending.
just trying to keep up my spirits and think frantically for something other than this rejected WA

@Sostenueto I was hoping for something new too. Not just to talk about but to move on from this awful limbo giving us nightmares. I ho back and forth between we'll revoke, and some kind of deal that doesn't screw us into the next few decades. I'm an eternal optimist. A slightly pessimistic one though

Talk1npeace, suggests that it is easy to manipulate the threads that appear on "active" by spurious reporting.

Not that I'm suggesting anyone try this.

Seriously, I'm at the stage of thinking how to save at least a few million people - and not screw up Ireland yet again, as we have done for 800 years.

I can't see any way to save English Remainers other than the faint chance of Revoke.

What do you want to see happen - I'd love any better ideas

What I took from her speech is that if it comes down to one or the other (which it does) TM would rather betray the GFA than the 2016 advisory referendum.

Which is pretty stark. Especially for the people of NI.

I can't change the English percentages - and the fact that there are ten times more English than Scots is exactly why there is a push for Scottish independence: because what England wants, England gets (although at the moment, the tables have been turned a bit, as "What the DUP wants, England gets" some might say it is karma )

It's up to the English to sort out their Middle England problem. Scotland can't do anything to help (except perhaps be a thriving example within EU/EFTA to show the English what they are missing out on and perhaps that way, positively influence a future vote )

Remember, Scotland voted 62% to Remain - so we did our bit. I think a third "second" vote, if there were a PV, would result in an even higher Remain percentage in Scotland, as there were some EU supporting Unionist Scots who voted Leave "to stick one on that bitch Sturgeon" (as one was heard to say ), assuming Remain would win worked out well for them

There may be hope yet. Revoke was mentioned twice ( I think) in TM speech so maybe its in her mind. She definitely ruled out a PV and not taking no deal off the table so just maybe.........(sigh)

Reading the Sky report and the original DoT earlier, they seem to be assuming after No Deal that food / farming / agriculture exports would still be allowed from D1ND

i.e. that we won't get taken off the EU databases and then go through the 6 months or so being put on as a new 3rd country.

BUT
I don't remember seeing in the EU contingency plans that they would let us stay on their database for the first 912 months
or is this disguised in elliptical / flowery language somewhere ?

@red Have you spotted a yes / no re staying on EU databases, for good exports especially ?

Agree perverse.

That Faisal Islam leak is insane, we'd literally starve and die.

ffs, food exports

Hello everyone.

Just to mention, the bombs and hijackings in L/Derry may have something to do with the fact that the Anniversary of the first Independent Parliament in Ireland happened this weekend.

But however, they have a weird way of blowing out some candles on a cake in celebration.

Hopefully that is all it is, bad as it could have been. Cool heads are required now.

Well, as I posted, it's based on the Dept of Transport estimate we saw several days ago

iirc, we import 30% of our food from the EU
so that's worst case about 26% of food lost

Can we eat the cuts of meat we normally don't like and export
Ditto the types of fish ?
Import more from RoW
Grow more
Ration fairly and reduce waste ?

Probably some of those .... but not by April, especially the "grow more" !
Maybe that's why we keep hearing rumours about requesting a 9 month extension

Some of those changes will sure as hell be unpopular ... even if they actually worked on time

She definitely ruled out a PV and not taking no deal off the table so just maybe.........(sigh)

I remember when she ruled out a GE...

Though I do agree that PV is now looking less and less likely. I honestly think we are going to no deal now. As I live in a small city surrounded by a sea of leave voters I'm starting to think we should rebuild our city walls and declare independence. We could become part of Scotland.

Tony Connelly@tconnellyRTE

Mr Coveney also held a bilateral meeting with the British foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt.
He said he had received assurances that, contrary to newspaper reports, the UK was not seeking to change the Good Friday Agreement.

< I suspect some in govt - e.g. Gove - are indeed trying to change the GFA.
Also, what about May's attempts to water down the backstop - shows she at least wants to keep the border checks option open >

I've posted on that Active Threads/Censorship thread. I suspect I might get my first ever MN deletion - as I accused the moderation of "not being in the spirit of MN guidelines" (and I have kept a record of what I posted )

We need to think out of the box ...
and we are lumbered with the least creative, most box-bound PM in a long while

prettybird
Guess which thread is suddenly at the top of the list
I suspect that MNHQ will have to have a rethink

I saw silverysufer bragging on another thread about getting threads moved to Brexit from the big boards ....

These threads show up on my active feed.

I expect ships from the US will come bearing hormone fed beef and gm veg to replace the lost food from the EU. And we will be given no choice in the matter as there will be nothing else to eat.