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Brexit

Westministenders: May dug a deep stinky hole and UK politics has tumbled in

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 16/01/2019 15:17

May almost certainly won't resign even after this huge defeat.

She's survived umpteen other humiliating defeats.
Her record strongly suggests she'll cling on to office with broken fingernails until Brexit (or Revoke) happens

After the ERG failed to topple her last month, she can legally stay as Tory party leader at least until December.
Besides, would any of her likely successors as Tory Party leader - Leadsome, Boris, JRM, Gove - be any better ... or bring even worse horrors ?

Corbyn has called a No Confidence vote
NC debate to be held at 7pm today.

He'll lose, because the DUP and the ERG - who voted down her WA - have genuine Confidence in her, of course 🤔

The Labour Party conference agreed their policy would be to get a GE, but failing that to go for a PV.
However, Corbyns latest statement is still against a PV
Will he finally give in, or try to out-stubborn May ?

The HoC doesn't want No Deal - but can't yet agree what they do want.
if they and / or May don't specifically choose something else, then No Deal is what automatically happens

May had told the cabinet she'd just keep pushing the WA, but it's now a dead parrot of a WA.

So she's "reaching out" to the other parties whom she's rudely rejected for the last 2.5 years
Maybe ongoing cross-party talks will ignore her and succeed on agreeing a new approach
BUT
The EU have said they will only renegotiate if the UK drops some of its red lines
Otherwise it's either this unchange WA or No Deal

Many analysts think this impasse means that May will have to ask the EU for an A50 extension.
She keeps saying she won't delay Brexit - but after she became PM she kept denying she'd hold a GE, right up until she announced it.

EU officials have hinted they would extend until the end of June.
However, an extension would have to be unanimously approved.
Would any of the 27 countries veto, in exasperation with the UK's ridiculous performance the last 2 years ?

I know on Westministenders we're all exasperated with it !

OP posts:
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1tisILeClerc · 17/01/2019 14:28

{Otherwise we're just refloating the Titanic.}
Fix the hole and it would be fine in the Med.

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 17/01/2019 14:30

David Allen Green
‏*@davidallengreen*

  1. This account is not about party politics. Other accounts are available for political commentary. There is good and bad in all mainstream parties.

But I cannot understand Labour policy on Brexit. It is not so much that I disagree with it, I just cannot comprehend it.

  1. Making "ruling out a No Deal Brexit" as a pre-condition for talks with May makes no sense in and of itself.

A "No Deal" Brexit cannot exist in a vacuum. Avoiding a No Deal Brexit is the result of one of two other things happening.

  1. The first is that there is a Deal. there is one Deal on offer, which the Labour Party has just voted against.

The second is revoking Article 50, but the Labour Party is committed to respecting the "mandate".

  1. The only way May can - today - rule out a no Deal Brexit is to accept the Deal on offer (which the Labour Party is against) or to commit to revoking Article 50 (which the Labour Party) is also against.

Nothing else can constitute "ruling out" No Deal in a meaningful way.

  1. Anything else leaves open the possibility of No Deal, and so it is not "ruled out" in any meaningful sense.

One fears Corbyn is not clear in his mind what he is demanding as a pre-condition.

/ends

To "rule out a No-Deal Brexit" without committing to either the Deal or revocation is to rule out smashing to the ground if you jump off a tall building

Yes, something may well stop the fall (like that spaceship in Life of Brian), but you really cannot count on it.

lonelyplanetmum · 17/01/2019 14:30

Why is it always the Leavers whose dicks need sucking ?

This is something I really have never understood. I just have this feeling that if there's a PV and for argument's sake say the %s are switched, it would then be the 48% who are pandered to.

Whether they held 70, 30 , 20, 48 or 52 % that's where the balance of power lies.

Yoksha · 17/01/2019 14:30

I've dropped off the radar, but been lurking continuously on this Brexit area. Thank you all for helping me understand . I've posted because I'm so upset and lost.

I've copied and pasted the jist of both posts and emailed this to my MP Ben Wallace. Both Dh and I have continually been fobbed off. I hope it's OK?

RTB @ 12:49 & QueenMabby @ 13:31

I've also appealed to him to consider his position for the benefit of the whole UK!.

DGRossetti · 17/01/2019 14:31

This reply has been deleted

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

QueenMabby · 17/01/2019 14:33

My husband’s just announced he’s going to Plovdiv for the weekend. He’s leaving on 29th March.
Will I see him again after that??!! Confused Grin

QueenMabby · 17/01/2019 14:35

@Yoksha
Totally ok. Grin
Let’s just hope it does some good!

Motheroffourdragons · 17/01/2019 14:36

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

DGRossetti · 17/01/2019 14:37

Er, no idea ?

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2019 14:39

In AV you don't have to put a number for all options... just the ones you like.

Thus if you were a remainer or a hard brexiteer, why would you put more than 1?

And if you think that this wouldn't be widely shared as being ok, then you are kidding yourself.

You could end up with an even bigger almight mess if you try and game that one...

icannotremember · 17/01/2019 14:40

I learnt from my hairdresser that some people believe that if a government puts an option on a ballot paper - it’s a legitimate, workable option that could benefit the country, or wouldn’t be on there in the first place.

Probably because that should be the case!

DGRossetti · 17/01/2019 14:40

Ah, yes, I remember now ...

It was a musing on cosmic coincidences, and how they should play out.

Out of respect for the rules, I won't repeat it. But I have seen a lot worse on AIBU, so someone is a bit prickly.

Unless (stops and thinks) oh, my God !!!! Maybe it was in bad taste because something has happened to Farage, Johnson or Gove (goes off to check breaking news ....)

SwedishEdith · 17/01/2019 14:40

BBC Politics
@BBCPolitics

“No-one I have met in Brussels who does not think there is going to be an extension. They very much doubt that even a no deal can be delivered on March 29th” @alexebarker of the FT in Brussels

twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1085890629182283776

Yoksha · 17/01/2019 14:41

@QueenMabby. Sad. I use this emoji because my 21yr old Dgd has today broken up for good with her Polish boyfriend and moving out. He's become very uncomfortable and is possibly returning to Poland.

MarmotMorning · 17/01/2019 14:42

PainInTheEar thank you, that's explained in a much more coherent way what I was thinking about with ruling out no deal. I like the plane analogy

1tisILeClerc · 17/01/2019 14:42

I think it had something to do with careless driving.
A new poster with a 'prejudiced' view was deleted very quickly yesterday on another thread. New moderators I think.

TatianaLarina · 17/01/2019 14:43

To "rule out a No-Deal Brexit" without committing to either the Deal or revocation is to rule out smashing to the ground if you jump off a tall building

I think it kickstarts the process of blocking the jump.

If HoC decide against No Deal - and it may come to a straight vote on it - they then have to determine precisely how they will avoid No Deal.

They have already also voted against WA. So the only real options are: another Deal acceptable to EU that might get through Parliament - ie some version of soft Brexit - or Remain.

Does Parliament decide or the people.

prettybird · 17/01/2019 14:48

Someone must have been very snowflake-ish if DGR's post was deleted within 5 minutes Hmm

1tisILeClerc · 17/01/2019 14:48

{If HoC decide against No Deal - and it may come to a straight vote on it - they then have to determine precisely how they will avoid No Deal.}
I am glad that after 2 1/2 years they are beginning to think about it, I feel very reassured.

bellinisurge · 17/01/2019 14:52

Car crash Fuck Wank. Was it something like that? Daily Fail special.

DGRossetti · 17/01/2019 14:54

Someone must have been very snowflake-ish if DGR's post was deleted within 5 minutes

Apparently it "wasn't in the spirit".

Next time I'll post in French. Or Italian.

1tisILeClerc · 17/01/2019 14:55

No Bellini you have to EMPHASISE one of the words, preferably one that is RANDOM to be in that esteemed rag.

DGRossetti · 17/01/2019 14:55

Someone must have been very snowflake-ish if DGR's post was deleted within 5 minutes

MNHQ must know one of: Farage, Fox, Davies, Gove or Johnson must be reading this thread.

Motheroffourdragons · 17/01/2019 14:56

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

1tisILeClerc · 17/01/2019 14:57

But allowing people who tell lies constantly which are in the process of actually making the lives of 500 Million people poorer is fine.