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Brexit

Westministenders: May dug a deep stinky hole and UK politics has tumbled in

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 16/01/2019 15:17

May almost certainly won't resign even after this huge defeat.

She's survived umpteen other humiliating defeats.
Her record strongly suggests she'll cling on to office with broken fingernails until Brexit (or Revoke) happens

After the ERG failed to topple her last month, she can legally stay as Tory party leader at least until December.
Besides, would any of her likely successors as Tory Party leader - Leadsome, Boris, JRM, Gove - be any better ... or bring even worse horrors ?

Corbyn has called a No Confidence vote
NC debate to be held at 7pm today.

He'll lose, because the DUP and the ERG - who voted down her WA - have genuine Confidence in her, of course 🤔

The Labour Party conference agreed their policy would be to get a GE, but failing that to go for a PV.
However, Corbyns latest statement is still against a PV
Will he finally give in, or try to out-stubborn May ?

The HoC doesn't want No Deal - but can't yet agree what they do want.
if they and / or May don't specifically choose something else, then No Deal is what automatically happens

May had told the cabinet she'd just keep pushing the WA, but it's now a dead parrot of a WA.

So she's "reaching out" to the other parties whom she's rudely rejected for the last 2.5 years
Maybe ongoing cross-party talks will ignore her and succeed on agreeing a new approach
BUT
The EU have said they will only renegotiate if the UK drops some of its red lines
Otherwise it's either this unchange WA or No Deal

Many analysts think this impasse means that May will have to ask the EU for an A50 extension.
She keeps saying she won't delay Brexit - but after she became PM she kept denying she'd hold a GE, right up until she announced it.

EU officials have hinted they would extend until the end of June.
However, an extension would have to be unanimously approved.
Would any of the 27 countries veto, in exasperation with the UK's ridiculous performance the last 2 years ?

I know on Westministenders we're all exasperated with it !

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IsobelKarev · 16/01/2019 22:35

Not surprised, but really quite depressed. I keep hoping that someone will step up and at least try to put the country first. And I keep being so utterly disappointed in both May and Corbyn.

Somerville · 16/01/2019 22:35

That Telegraph scoop is highly entertaining. Many zingers. One I like was Barclay telling business leaders: “One of the challenges we have had is that there has been a narrative of dismissing some of the practical issues around Project Fear rather than the real term consequences that people on the call will be very aware of.We need to continue with those practical examples of the impact on your businesses to members of parliament. Emphasising that message to them is extremely helpful”

DangermousesSidekick · 16/01/2019 22:36

5 mins of Vince Cable saying 'Do it for real' and that's a 'constructive meeting' is it?
I've been reduced to shouting at telling the TV off.

Greensleeves · 16/01/2019 22:37

Her meetings with Ian Blackford and Vince Cable:

"are you going to take No Deal off the table?"

"Nope"

"are you willing to talk about a PV?"

"Nope"

"Goodbye"

May and Corbyn have had that conversation repeatedly in front of the whole House and the TV cameras. What exactly is missing?

ElenadeClermont · 16/01/2019 22:37

Good night. I shall go and continue reading Milkman by Anna Burns. Hilarious and thought-provoking. How to build a girl in a Catholic community in Northern Ireland so far.

BigChocFrenzy · 16/01/2019 22:37

The Irish Border@BorderIrish

Welcome to the hangover in which Chris Green MP says there shouldn’t be indicative votes in Parliament because then the EU would know the UK’s negotiating position 🤦🏻‍♀️

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Somerville · 16/01/2019 22:37

And the best hope that Hammond can offer to business leaders is repeatedly saying that there is a back bench amendment to block no deal that he is hopeful about, but doesn’t yet know what the government view on it is. Confused Oh and also promising them all that things will move very quickly now. No shit, Sherlock. Hmm

BigChocFrenzy · 16/01/2019 22:41

Guy Verhofstadtt@guyverhofstadt*

What we will not let happen, deal or no deal, is that the mess in British politics is again imported into European politics.

While we understand the UK could need more time,
for us it is unthinkable that article 50 is prolonged beyond the European Elections. #Brexit #EPlenary

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Shambu · 16/01/2019 22:41

Steven Swinford@Steven_Swinford

The vote on Boles amendment on Monday is huge headache for Government.

I'm told pro-European Cabinet ministers will refuse to vote against it.

Leaves Govt either backing it, offering MPs free vote, allowing ministers to be away on other business or facing Cabinet revolt

Somerville · 16/01/2019 22:44

The vote on Boles amendment on Monday is huge headache for Government.
Is he talking about the same Boles amendment that Hammond was eulogising to business leaders?? Or maybe that’s a different amendment. I have a headache now.

BigChocFrenzy · 16/01/2019 22:45

Fabian Zuleeg**@FabianZuleeg (European policy centre, Brussels)

Interesting cognitive dissonance between English/UK media/commentators (subscribed to by markets) & EU27:

both agree May's deal less likely & remain more likely.
But EU27 commentators (incl. myself) think chance of no deal increased much more
vs UK ones who almost rule it out
....
Alexander Clarksonn@APHClarkson*

That's because many UK commentators still remain instinctively convinced that the EU will water down its position

while most EU27 commentators know that it has already gone as far as it is willing to go

That leaves quite difficult choices many in the UK have avoided until now

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boatyardblues · 16/01/2019 22:47

I have no chance of keeping up with you all, particularly at your current pace, but I want to thank RTB and all the Westminsterenders regulars for riding the Brexit tiger with such elan. You are giants!

PerverseConverse · 16/01/2019 22:49

My head is about to explode and I don't follow twitter so a bit lost now...

MarshaBradyo · 16/01/2019 22:54

May’s statement reminded me of work when people would passively aggressively say screw you

I know I’ll do a statement and say my door is open

prettybird · 16/01/2019 22:55

Sky News suggests that the EU is considering whether it could allow an extension of a year Shock - and not necessarily with the PV/GE/substantive change in red-lines pre-conditions that they've previously state - but only because the UK has been so crap and is so ill-prepared Hmm

I've mused before that the EU might grant an extension (but not as long as that Confused) purely so that it can have more time itself to get organised for the possibility of a No Deal Brexit.

HesterThrale · 16/01/2019 23:02

Only just caught up on the last two threads!

I suppose May could construct a deal, which includes CU, that would command support from some Labour MPs. That could actually get enough votes in the HoC. Say 200 Tories (roughly the ones who supported her in the NC vote last month), plus say 150 Labour. Then she would achieve the ‘delivery’ of Brexit, to which she’s committed.
However the right wing of the Tory party would rebel and possibly walk out, splitting the party.
She can’t please all wings of her party. So her choice may end up being either delivering Brexit or keeping the party together. What a dilemma for her.
(Also Labour might split at that point too.)

SillySallySingsSongs · 16/01/2019 23:05

As Tobias Ellwood MP has said tonight

So Jeremy Corbyn will meet with Hamas, Hezbollah and the IRA with no preconditions, but won't meet with the British Prime Minister without her agreeing to his precondition

He has a point.

SillySallySingsSongs · 16/01/2019 23:06

That was from Iain Dale twitter.

BigChocFrenzy · 16/01/2019 23:07

SkyNews is talking through its arse.

Read the Verkofstadt tweet about NOT extending beyond EP elections (which are 23-26 May)

The UK wpould have to give VERY good reason for extending beyond that
and some E27 leaders have already indicated they just want it over, Britain has had 2 years of squabbling, no extensions at all

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BigChocFrenzy · 16/01/2019 23:09

The only chance would be if major economies - maybe France, NL - said they needed more time to avoid economic problems

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BigChocFrenzy · 16/01/2019 23:11

Yeah, Corbyn's murky past is a real handicap, when it comes to judging what he does now

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prettybird · 16/01/2019 23:14

It certainly surprised me - which is why I noticed it. Shock

Personally, I still think the longest extension would be 3 months at most because of the EP elections.

Tanith · 16/01/2019 23:18

“So Jeremy Corbyn will meet with Hamas, Hezbollah and the IRA with no preconditions, but won't meet with the British Prime Minister without her agreeing to his precondition”

I read that as an indication of her untrustworthiness and she only has herself to blame for that.

SillySallySingsSongs · 16/01/2019 23:25

I read that as an indication of her untrustworthiness and she only has herself to blame for that.

That takes some mind juggling and twisting for you to get to that conclusion.

PerverseConverse · 16/01/2019 23:28

JC will never be allowed to move on from that will he. I don't like him but it's constantly thrown in his face to discredit him completely. I don't think he's up to the job of PM but I wish they'd all shut up about his past. Things have probably been twisted and spun but I don't know enough to argue as to his guilt or innocence on those accusations.