Westministenders: May dug a deep stinky hole and UK politics has tumbled in

[BigChocFrenzy]

May almost certainly won't resign even after this huge defeat.

She's survived umpteen other humiliating defeats.
Her record strongly suggests she'll cling on to office with broken fingernails until Brexit (or Revoke) happens

After the ERG failed to topple her last month, she can legally stay as Tory party leader at least until December.
Besides, would any of her likely successors as Tory Party leader - Leadsome, Boris, JRM, Gove - be any better ... or bring even worse horrors ?

Corbyn has called a No Confidence vote
NC debate to be held at 7pm today.

He'll lose, because the DUP and the ERG - who voted down her WA - have genuine Confidence in her, of course 🤔

The Labour Party conference agreed their policy would be to get a GE, but failing that to go for a PV.
However, Corbyns latest statement is still against a PV
Will he finally give in, or try to out-stubborn May ?

The HoC doesn't want No Deal - but can't yet agree what they do want.
if they and / or May don't specifically choose something else, then No Deal is what automatically happens

May had told the cabinet she'd just keep pushing the WA, but it's now a dead parrot of a WA.

So she's "reaching out" to the other parties whom she's rudely rejected for the last 2.5 years
Maybe ongoing cross-party talks will ignore her and succeed on agreeing a new approach
BUT
The EU have said they will only renegotiate if the UK drops some of its red lines
Otherwise it's either this unchange WA or No Deal

Many analysts think this impasse means that May will have to ask the EU for an A50 extension.
She keeps saying she won't delay Brexit - but after she became PM she kept denying she'd hold a GE, right up until she announced it.

EU officials have hinted they would extend until the end of June.
However, an extension would have to be unanimously approved.
Would any of the 27 countries veto, in exasperation with the UK's ridiculous performance the last 2 years ?

I know on Westministenders we're all exasperated with it !

I think we should be locking all MPs in a conference room, for the world's most dreadful away day from hell, until they come up with a consensus position. Somewhere neutral, away from Westminster, cross-party roundtables, the country's best facilitators, and all the trade experts you might need on tap to answer questions.

That would be a new kind of politics :)

A citizens' assembly without the citizens.

This is the same JRM who voted today he had Confidence in her govt

Jacob Rees-Mogg hosts champagne party after May Brexit defeat

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/16/jacob-rees-mogg-hosts-champagne-party-after-may-brexit-defeat

Business leaders warn of 'supertanker GB' heading for the rocks

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/16/jacob-rees-mogg-hosts-champagne-party-after-may-brexit-defeat

CBI appeals to Tory MPs to shift position to avoid a no-deal Brexit, or risk further harm to the economy

< but when he was Foreign Sec, Brexiter Boris Johnson said at a diplomatic reception: "fuck business" >

456 pmk. Phew.

I'm no Corbyn fan.

Which is an understatement.

However, not going into 'talks' with May is definitely one of the least worst things he's done.

Those 'talks' are an exercise in providing a fig leaf of democratic process for a PM who has negotiated in an implicitly authoritarian style - and shoes no signs of stopping.

It could provide a fig leaf for worse: a seemingly 'X-party' group providing a fig-leaf for a 'national emergency' government that is as hard right and authoritarian as we fear.

We know what getting into bed with the Conservatives does for other parties: the Liberals carried the can for Conservative policies. It has virtually finished them as a political force. They've been destroyed. And look where that has taken us.

It wasn't fair. But the Conservatives are good at this game and have a powerful right-wing press behind them.

Caroline Lucas is also insisting on 'No Deal' being taken off the table as her 'Red line'. Admittedly, she's 'going in to talk' to present that. But ... we'll, I hope she sticks to her guns.

The problem, for Corbyn, is that he has been stupidly and ridiculously silent about the importance of 'No Deal'.

As a result, it just sounds like fatuous awkwardness now. And can easily be presented as such.

The line disseminated by unofficial Corbyn outriders is that Brexit is less of an issue than austerity. And that, clearly, is s line from within the Corbyn inner circle.

It echoes what Corbyn has done: PMQ after PMQ, public appearance after public appearance, his 'attack' has been to ignore Brexit and go on about domestic austerity policy.

The Corbyn outriders have even taken to attacking anti-Brexit speakers as people who don't care about austerity: 'You go on about Brecit! That's because you are middle class elite who don't care about homelessness!!'

It's ridiculous.

He should have been calling out No Deal for what it is: a disaster that will impact on the poor, hardest.

A proof that Brexit is a right wing revolution that we must fight.

A disgraceful negotiating ploy, where May is a deranged terrorist, sitting in a room filled with explosives, knife to the throat of her electorate, threatening to blow it all up and take everyone with her in an orgy of economic blood-letting.

He didn't do that.

He permitted, he enabled, the normalisation of No Deal.

And you get Labour supporters and Corbyn supporters telling you that No Deal is fine - a road-clearing to permit the entrance of the socialist nirvana.

Which is insane.

It's actually, properly insane. People who think this need help realigning their rational thought processes and their libidinal thinking. They need therapy.

But Corbyn has enabled it.

And, consequently, his throwing 'take no deal off the table or I won't talk' at this stage looks utterly shallow.

Which, frankly, it is.

^^ about Corbyn

Well we clearly can’t rely on our own PM to tell us where we are but the neighbouring president has nailed it with a decent summary...
When he was told about the confidence vote etc following a seven-hour town hall meeting in Normandy, President Macron summarises it..

"I'm going to tell you how I see things," he began.

1.	"First option, the British go towards a no deal so they say there is no agreement. It scares everybody. The first losers of this are the British people.

"So, in this context they will have to - without any transition period - renegotiate a future relationship," Macron continued.
"I can tell you very solemnly that in the framework of this future relationship, the interests of French fishing will be defended and we will have to negotiate a transition period with them anyway because the British can't afford not to have a plane taking off or landing in their country and 70% of their supermarket supplies comes from continental Europe."

2.”Second option, they tell us 'We will try' - I think that's what they will do. I know them a bit. 'We will try to improve what we can obtain from the Europeans and we'll vote again'.
"In that case, we'll look into it. Maybe we'll make improvements but I don't really think so because we've reached out limits with the deal and we won't, just to solve Britain's domestic political issues, stop defending European interests.

3.” There is a third option,"
"Which is - I think they will start with the second option and it will end with the third option. Let's bet. I take my chances, which is to say, 'We will take more time' and they will ask to have a longer transition period to renegotiate something.
"So they will take more time. Maybe they will step over the European elections to find something else. But, in the time we are living, it says a lot about referendums which seemed nice can create.
"It's a referendum that has been manipulated, manipulated from outside by a lot of what we call fake news, where everything and anything was said and now they are being told, 'Figure it out yourselves'.
"Result: It is not true. We (the Leave campaign) have lied to the people and what they (the public) have chosen is not possible.
In conclusion:
"Good luck to the representatives of the nation who has to implement a thing which doesn't exist and has to explain to the people: you have voted on a thing, we lied to you."

https://www.joe.ie/news/emmanuel-macron-brexit-655132

Honestly, there is such a Big Problem with the current Opposition leader and his group.

As we often say on here, the whole Brexit debacle has a revenant quality to it.

So much is about the politics and wishes of a very much older generation returning to visit themselves on the present (and the future) in a macabre way, with fatal effects.

Brexit itself, powered by fantasies of a UK lost in time (a chimaera of the 1950s and 1970s); a retrogressive reaction to modern economic and social forces that terrify those ill-equipped to modify for those.

The Opposition, stymied by a bizarre reaching backwards amongst its voters to the political formations, explanations and responses of yesteryear, when presented with extraordinarily modern and newly emergent challenges.

While seemingly presented by 'the young' and packaged as a 'youth revolution', the rhetoric and the message has an e traordinarily 'revivalist' flavour: 'socialism or barbarism' 'nationalisation' 'anti-westernism'.

It's a politics utterly comfortable to those who came of age politically I. The 50s and 60s. Or who are word-perfect in these ideas, having studied it in history and politics lectures at university.

But old shoes don't necessarily work best for today's journey.

We are in the middle of a C21 right-wing coup. It has features that are uniquely modern and utterly unlike the revolutions of yore.

This resurrected, revenant politics is paralysing the Left. it's failing to give us the tools to recognise the revolution we are in the middle of , let alone giving us the tools to fight it.

It is as though we are fighting a Star Wars battle, with an army of corpses raised from the grave.

We deserve better.

Macron again showing us that Brexit and the UK will serve, for decades, as a cautionary tale for the electorates of other countries.

Oh, how I wish I wasn't s UK Brexit hostage. ☹️

Corbyn appears to be preaching at May through a megaphone rather than actually telling her face to face that No Deal should be off the table.
Yes, I know he doesn't want to sully himself with helping the Tories.
When he was a backbencher he was happy enough to shake hands with Adams and subsequently pretend he had a major role in the NI peace process. Rather than just liking having his photo taken with "edgy types" to appeal to the cool kidz and taking the credit for the peace process from a dead woman, Mo Mowlem. Momentum kiddies think he solved NI - slimy duplicitous bastard that he is.
One of the reasons Remain failed was that he was not prepared to hold his nose and share a platform with Cameron to say Brexit was a really bad idea, so bad , that he was willing to be in the same room as that twat to get the message across.
So, Jezza, if no Deal is that bad (rather than a golden opportunity for you to forment chaos and rise victorious), suck it up and meet Theresa May face to face. She can't be more of an evil git than the IRA.

What happened to the launch of the no deal planning advice site for the public that was due to go live on Tuesday? Anyone know....?

Not yet.

Caroline Lucas meeting with TM at 9am. Can't imagine that meeting will go any differently to the others.

Sky News suggests that the EU is considering whether it could allow an extension of a year

As a German quote yesterday counselled, it's probably better to ensure statements like that are circulating in European newspapers before believing them. (There was a snarky comment about the Germans public not reading UK papers to find out what their government was saying)

Just had a peek a French newsite, and their first Brexit story is page 6 (of 15) and 3rd on my Italian one. Neither mentions any suggestion of an extension.

Why, it's almost as if I don't trust the UK press too much !

Funnily enough I think the EU might prefer a longer extension rather than shorter. I think after this week calculations might be changing: the WA if not quite dead is definitely on life support, which increases the risk of no deal but also vastly improves the chance of no Brexit (which has to be the EU's preferred solution).

A longer extension makes holding EP elections in May more feasible and worthwhile (and I think there is a good chance that remainers will turn out very strongly to elect pro EU MEPs in that case; it would be a good opportunity for the LDs and Greens).

A short extension just risks a new cliff edge in July.

I don't believe the EU will push the U.K. off the cliff while there is a majority in Parliament against no deal. Perhaps that is naive.

Also, lots and LOTS of coverage in the serious French language press this week. I'm a Le Monde subscriber and the top story this morning is Brexit with two other Brexit articles also on the landing page.

And four out of the top ten "most read" stories are about Brexit.

It's not normally like this, but I think there is now a large market among educated French news consumers for the equivalent of slowing down to gawp at a pileup on the other side of the motorway.

SillySallySingsSongs

No. Nobody has agreed to meet with her.

Errr yes they have.

Walking into a room to say you won't negotiate unless she moves lines she won't move does not a meeting make. If you think it does then Corbyn has already had the conversation as we all know because it was public, so what's the problem? As Corbyn has said no less to her than any of the other two you quoted tweets about either they have all had constructive conversations or none of them have.

Mistigri I was teaching my English classes yesterday for the U3A here in France and all they wanted to talk about was Brexit. They had all seen Theresa lose the vote on the news and are aghast at what is happening. Lots of interest from everyone here and lots of comment about, "well if we ever thought for one minute that was a good idea it has made us think again....."

And over here we’re in the tailback from the pileup, wondering what the hell is going on, watching the emergency services rush by, needing a wee or standing on the hard shoulder having a fag.

Yes misti it would be really helpful if the U.K. participated in the E.U. elections and did not elect UKIP members, whose only raisin d’etre seems to be to destroy the EU and our relationship with it. So unproductive.

And japancat I agree about JC and Labour. The day after the biggest govt defeat EVER, and his party political broadcast is all about austerity but NOT Brexit. He hasn’t recognised that Brexit needs to be sorted BEFORE austerity can be tackled, and that it is the uppermost issue in many people’s minds.

I read that as an indication of her untrustworthiness and she only has herself to blame for that.

That takes some mind juggling and twisting for you to get to that conclusion.

Oh come on! This woman has even lied to the Queen! She’s lied, prevaricated and manipulated all through her premiership - no-one can trust a word she says. She has only herself to blame that no-one believes a word she says any more.

More calls for PV, now from business.

More than 170 business leaders join call for second Brexit referendum
www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/17/more-than-170-business-leaders-join-call-for-second-brexit-referendum

It seems that there is nothing, apart from resigning, that corbyn can do that would satisfy a lot of people on this board.
It wasn't too many threads back he was being slated for not calling an nc vote - when he did that he gets slammed for time wasting.
I might not like the guy but he is sticking to his mandate?

In the meantime the party with total responsibility for the clusterfuck sails grumpily on - there appears to be no mechanism to get them/her to change course - shouldn't we be focusing on that?
Surely getting no deal off the table is the essential stabilising first step - the nonsense about harming the bargaining position needs to be called out.

If I was the opposition with May faux requesting cross party meetings I would agree as long as they were all open and public, held in front of press, like the open committees and inquiries they have. I would then turn up with my request she changed her red lines and just politely keep repeating them in front of the cameras until she explodes. Under no circumstances would I hold any talks in private with her.