Westministenders: May dug a deep stinky hole and UK politics has tumbled in

[BigChocFrenzy]

May almost certainly won't resign even after this huge defeat.

She's survived umpteen other humiliating defeats.
Her record strongly suggests she'll cling on to office with broken fingernails until Brexit (or Revoke) happens

After the ERG failed to topple her last month, she can legally stay as Tory party leader at least until December.
Besides, would any of her likely successors as Tory Party leader - Leadsome, Boris, JRM, Gove - be any better ... or bring even worse horrors ?

Corbyn has called a No Confidence vote
NC debate to be held at 7pm today.

He'll lose, because the DUP and the ERG - who voted down her WA - have genuine Confidence in her, of course 🤔

The Labour Party conference agreed their policy would be to get a GE, but failing that to go for a PV.
However, Corbyns latest statement is still against a PV
Will he finally give in, or try to out-stubborn May ?

The HoC doesn't want No Deal - but can't yet agree what they do want.
if they and / or May don't specifically choose something else, then No Deal is what automatically happens

May had told the cabinet she'd just keep pushing the WA, but it's now a dead parrot of a WA.

So she's "reaching out" to the other parties whom she's rudely rejected for the last 2.5 years
Maybe ongoing cross-party talks will ignore her and succeed on agreeing a new approach
BUT
The EU have said they will only renegotiate if the UK drops some of its red lines
Otherwise it's either this unchange WA or No Deal

Many analysts think this impasse means that May will have to ask the EU for an A50 extension.
She keeps saying she won't delay Brexit - but after she became PM she kept denying she'd hold a GE, right up until she announced it.

EU officials have hinted they would extend until the end of June.
However, an extension would have to be unanimously approved.
Would any of the 27 countries veto, in exasperation with the UK's ridiculous performance the last 2 years ?

I know on Westministenders we're all exasperated with it !

Bingo.

It gets more and more depressing.

Re United Ireland, I think we'd vote to reunite if NI wanted to. I do think there would be arguments against, but a vote would pass with quite a high majority. I think it'd be better to have it sooner rather than later though. The younger generation might not see it the same way.

I had opportunity to chat with a class of 11-12 year olds a few years ago. Several Eastern European boys in the class (some born in Ireland, some not), about 20% of the class. They were very vocal about a United Ireland being desirable, far more than the Irish children with Irish parents. It surprised me.

Not certain that all 27 EU members would approve an extension without good reason:

Ireland
would strongly support it, because Varadkar has already recommended it

BUT

Austria
Chancellor Kurz said the UK would have to present an appropriate strategy and plan before he would agree to an extension

Germany
Chancellor Merkel has kept to the EU line of "if the UK drop some red lines ..." but hasn't commented further.

However, the influential German equivalent to Institute of Directors says No Deal damage would be limited for Germany, but very bad for Britain.
AND
that extending wouldn't benefit Germany: (I disagree, btw, but he knows more !)

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/brexit-iw-chef-michael-huether-loest-die-notfallplaene-aus-a-1248319.html

France
Le Monde - Brexit : « Enough is enough »

"London will probably request a reprieve beyond Mach 29th.

Regret that the British are leaving is unanimous and sincere amongst the 27:
nobody wants to close the door on them.

However, too much energy has been lost on both sides for two and a half years of that process.
« Enough is enough », as Margaret Thatcher liked to say :
« That's enough », indeed.
This is the time to decide."

https://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2019/01/16/brexit-enough-is-enough54098488_3232.html

Small EU countries who don't do much trade with the UK but are gaining business from Brexit (- Slovakia ? )

Just want it over asap, so the EU switches to other issues:
Trump, refugees, ME wars, climate change

A significant risk for vetoing an extension, if they think they have little to gain from smoothing Brexit and are pissed at the time & resources of the EU taken up by it so far.

Isobel Right Honourable refers to members of the Privy Council.

Gary Lineker: "Brexit or a penalty shootout?"

https://www.irishcentral.com/news/politics/irish-people-united-ireland-referendum-poll

73.4% of residents in the Republic of Ireland would be in favor of unifying the people of Ireland

I hate penalties.

Beats Brexit though.

All the other parties have told her they will only discuss brexit deal with her if she takes no deal of the table, reconsiders red lines and considers a PV.

Where has Corbyn said she needs to consider a PV?

From the Guardian live feed May says now is the time to put self-interest aside, noting that she has just held constructive meetings with Vince Cable, Ian Blackford and Liz Saville Roberts.

This is just such a big fat lie! We know it is a lie because all those people have publicly said they will not work with her unless she makes concessions she has publically said she won't make. This is exactly why Corbyn won't walk into a room with her because once he does she will make up crap about what was said. There is no win for him in going into talks with May when she can't be trusted to be honest about anything at all.

Thanks elenade.

Late to the new thread and won't be around for the next couple of weeks.

I wish Sinn Fein would be bloody minded enough to take their seats, although I know that they won't. Whoosh, May's majority totally destroyed, and she would start negotiating PDQ.

Where has Corbyn said she needs to consider a PV?

That was the Lib Dems, sorry I just summerised from all parties and didn't make clear whose was whose. My bad.

I don't know if NI voters would really do as they told the polls last month, but apparently

if there were a No Deal Brexit then reuniting Ireland leads staying in the UK by 48% to 38%

Peregrina
I wish Sinn Fein would be bloody minded enough to take their seats, although I know that they won't. Whoosh, May's majority totally destroyed, and she would start negotiating PDQ.
I've thought that for a while
won't happen though
even though I suspect Brenda and Brian would be willing to let them mumble the oath

I'm going to bed. I'm all angry and annoyed. Bloody crap the lot of them.

bigly As you see from that poll, No Deal Brexit brings about their United Ireland dream decades early
So why would Sinn fein want to dig Britain out of a hole it dug itself ?

United Ireland and the old enemy GB crashes over the cliff
Win-win

Tom peck @ tompeck
If she's still going by April she'll be doing statements outside Number 10 to announce she's run out of bog roll.

So Corbyn’s no deal statement backfired she just won’t meet him

Why is anyone surprised that May and Corbyn just can't help themselves and continue with the party political bullshit.

So we're heading for No Deal then

neither have ever put the country first, so why is anyone surprised they are continuing in their old rut

So she's had all of these constructive meetings with everybody except labour in the last couple of hours - as if!

What a load of shite this whole thing really is.

Hopefully, their MPs will pressure them both into being more responsible

and the Labour party members can fill up JC's EM - but Tory party members are far fewer and nearly all batshit No Dealers

No. Nobody has agreed to meet with her.

Errr yes they have.

Ian Blackford @ ianblackfordmp
Following my meeting with the Prime Minister, I have written to her outlining the SNP's position. These cross-party talks cannot be about cosmetic changes to her already rejected deal. We must discuss real alternatives and a second referendum must be on the table.

Christopher Hope@christopherhope
NEW LibDem leader Sir Vince Cable met PM Theresa May tonight to discuss the Brexit impasse. He says: "No deal must be taken off the table and there has to be constructive discussion of People’s Vote. We are willing to listen but just fiddling with agreement not sufficient.”

I thought she is planning a GE and she tried to make sure that no remainer will vote for Labour ever again. (She said 80% of people voted for parties with delivering Brexit in their manifestos.) Or is that too cunning?

I think it’s just that 80% is a bigger number than 52%. It keeps the )will of the people being thwarted by parliament narrative going even if the stat is total bollocks.