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Brexit

Westministenders: May dug a deep stinky hole and UK politics has tumbled in

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 16/01/2019 15:17

May almost certainly won't resign even after this huge defeat.

She's survived umpteen other humiliating defeats.
Her record strongly suggests she'll cling on to office with broken fingernails until Brexit (or Revoke) happens

After the ERG failed to topple her last month, she can legally stay as Tory party leader at least until December.
Besides, would any of her likely successors as Tory Party leader - Leadsome, Boris, JRM, Gove - be any better ... or bring even worse horrors ?

Corbyn has called a No Confidence vote
NC debate to be held at 7pm today.

He'll lose, because the DUP and the ERG - who voted down her WA - have genuine Confidence in her, of course 🤔

The Labour Party conference agreed their policy would be to get a GE, but failing that to go for a PV.
However, Corbyns latest statement is still against a PV
Will he finally give in, or try to out-stubborn May ?

The HoC doesn't want No Deal - but can't yet agree what they do want.
if they and / or May don't specifically choose something else, then No Deal is what automatically happens

May had told the cabinet she'd just keep pushing the WA, but it's now a dead parrot of a WA.

So she's "reaching out" to the other parties whom she's rudely rejected for the last 2.5 years
Maybe ongoing cross-party talks will ignore her and succeed on agreeing a new approach
BUT
The EU have said they will only renegotiate if the UK drops some of its red lines
Otherwise it's either this unchange WA or No Deal

Many analysts think this impasse means that May will have to ask the EU for an A50 extension.
She keeps saying she won't delay Brexit - but after she became PM she kept denying she'd hold a GE, right up until she announced it.

EU officials have hinted they would extend until the end of June.
However, an extension would have to be unanimously approved.
Would any of the 27 countries veto, in exasperation with the UK's ridiculous performance the last 2 years ?

I know on Westministenders we're all exasperated with it !

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borntobequiet · 16/01/2019 21:33

Good. I’ve run out of inspiration and will go to bed.

PestymcPestFace · 16/01/2019 21:34

The pound is remarkably buoyant. Lots of money being made somewhere.

Westministenders: May dug a deep stinky hole and UK politics has tumbled in
1tisILeClerc · 16/01/2019 21:36

Mr Macron published an interesting open letter to the French and Gilets Jaunes asking for the views of people to reshape the government's direction. Saying that the local Maires (most towns and villages have them) will be happy to listen to suggestions.
A bit late perhaps but certainly interesting.

Shambu · 16/01/2019 21:37

If HoC agrees no No Deal, then its a question of arguing over the options left - basically Remain or soft Brexit. Reducing the options helps anyway because it gives discussing more focus.

So we'll need an extension. Whether Parliament takes control of the process or it's handed to the people via PV - Parliament will have to hammer out between them.

RedToothBrush · 16/01/2019 21:37

Jessica elgot @jessicaelgot
First shot fired. SNP, Lib Dems, Green and Plaid Cymru write to Corbyn tonight saying failure of no confidence motion means party must support second referendum.

Westministenders: May dug a deep stinky hole and UK politics has tumbled in
Shambu · 16/01/2019 21:37

*discussion not discussing.

RedToothBrush · 16/01/2019 21:39

Holidayshopping this might be why

Mark Wallace @ wallaceme
FWIW my guess would be that she’s going to try to up the pressure on Labour - “I invited Jeremy Corbyn to discuss with me the way forward for the good of the country, but he has irresponsibly refused to do so”, or similar.

derxa · 16/01/2019 21:40

And when can we expect a lambing thread?? Well it all kicks off at the beginning of March. We've just about got over last year's one.
Honestly this Brexit business has been disastrous for us because uncertainty.
I'm really glad all is well Somerville x

RedToothBrush · 16/01/2019 21:42

The letters behind May just fell off the wall again

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
A moment of true Britishness amid the Brexit crisis: the PM's message to the nation will not now be carried live on the BBC 10 O'Clock News, because Southampton v Derby FA Cup replay has gone to extra time.

Hazardswan · 16/01/2019 21:42

Wait she's going to throw a public tantrum at Corbyn?

It's like she's trying to be embarrassing and barking.

BiglyBadgers · 16/01/2019 21:44

I suppose the issue is that you can't really take no dal off the table. To take it off the table you have to put something in its place, otherwise as the default position if nobody can agree then it will always be there!

This is true, but I think if May had said that talks would be open to compromise on the red lines and that she would not use no deal as a deliberate negotiating stance. Plus would work with them to agree on an alternative default to stop us dropping out with no deal including discussing extensions with EU27...well, yes then I would expect Corbyn and co to talk. But at the moment she is saying there is no chance of change to her policy and that she won't even take a deliberate no deal off the table let along work to remove an accidental no deal. In which case what is the point in talking to her any more?

Shambu · 16/01/2019 21:45

She will just say that Brexit means Brexit and she has promised to carry out the result of then referendum and she will. 😏

BigChocFrenzy · 16/01/2019 21:45

May - and Corbyn - needs to drop their opposition to FOM
and then they can stop pretending that we need the CU, when in fact we need the SM plus a CA

May's WA is an abortion because she went for CU and then had to copy all the SM trade rules - including workers's rights, environmental standards etc - because the EU insis on a level playing field for their businesses.

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RedToothBrush · 16/01/2019 21:47

Christopher Hope@christopherhope
NEW LibDem leader Sir Vince Cable met PM Theresa May tonight to discuss the Brexit impasse. He says: "No deal must be taken off the table and there has to be constructive discussion of People’s Vote. We are willing to listen but just fiddling with agreement not sufficient.”

Ian Blackford @ ianblackfordmp
Following my meeting with the Prime Minister, I have written to her outlining the SNP's position. These cross-party talks cannot be about cosmetic changes to her already rejected deal. We must discuss real alternatives and a second referendum must be on the table.

Westministenders: May dug a deep stinky hole and UK politics has tumbled in
BiglyBadgers · 16/01/2019 21:47

because Southampton v Derby FA Cup replay has gone to extra time.

Good to see Southampton doing its bit to preserve the nation's sanity by keeping May from our screens. As a Soton supporter DH will be proud I'm sure.

BigChocFrenzy · 16/01/2019 21:49

Without changes to May's red lines, the EU will not renegotiate.

So she would be trying to force the HoC to eat yesterday's same old stale porridge / her WA

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RedToothBrush · 16/01/2019 21:49

Jessica elgot @jessicaelgot
Lib Dem source suggests they have low tolerance threshold for more confidence votes. “We will support any real opportunity to take down the Tories with relish. We will not be party to Corbyn using spurious means to avoid Labour policy, by perusing unwinnable no confidence votes”

So what exactly are they going to do if Labour table no confidence motions regularly? Abstain or vote with the government?

It doesn't matter what their tolerance is.

SmallAndFarAway · 16/01/2019 21:50

Melanie A border poll is probably one of the few reasons the EU would grant an extension. Arlene Foster will get a nobel peace prize for her role in the reunification of Ireland.

I would not assume the Republic of Ireland will vote for unification - would you actively vote to have Arlene & Co join your country, with their attitude of permanent entitlement?

As an ROI resident, I see little appetite for Ireland to solve the UK's problem for them. To be fair I don't move in very Republican circles, but from where I'm standing the economic commitment would dwarf any nationalist feelings.

I think an all-Ireland referendum after a no-deal Brexit would end in a 'No' in the south and a 'Yes' in the north, and then what?

AutumnCrow · 16/01/2019 21:51

She is starting to be weird as fuck.

BiglyBadgers · 16/01/2019 21:51

So she would be trying to force the HoC to eat yesterday's same old stale porridge / her WA

Exactly, but now she wants Corbyn to help her dish it out.

nuttynutjob · 16/01/2019 21:52

Place 🐈 mat king

BigChocFrenzy · 16/01/2019 21:52

I think we all agreed she wouldn't resign, but to reassure / depress any doubtful lurkers / newbies:

Laura Kuenssberg@bbclaurak

To those of you asking, yes, the statement at 10 is a lectern moment - but it has the govt badge on it, which means it is a PM statement, not leader of Tory party
- in other words, stand down, she isn't about to call an election!^

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RedToothBrush · 16/01/2019 21:53

Steven Swinford @steven_swinford
EXCLUSIVE

Telegraph obtains leaked recording of briefing Philip Hammond gave business leaders in aftermath of PM's defeat

Read full transcript including how Hammond said 'threat' of no-deal Brexit could be 'off the table' within days & A50 'rescinded'

[[EXCLUSIVE

Telegraph obtains leaked recording of briefing Philip Hammond gave business leaders in aftermath of PM's defeat

Read full transcript including how Hammond said 'threat' of no-deal Brexit could be 'off the table' within days & A50 'rescinded'

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/16/philip-hammond-tells-business-chiefs-mps-will-stop-no-deal-brexit/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Philip Hammond tells business chiefs MPs will stop no-deal Brexit
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PestymcPestFace · 16/01/2019 21:53

Sorry Small would not wish Arlene on anybody.

Somerville · 16/01/2019 21:54

I hear what you’re saying SmallAndFarAway BUT imagine how you might feel after a new, hard border has been imposed, or with it imminent. In the polls, RoI is edging towards UI in a no deal scenario. (Which is of course why Sinn Fein says no border whilst some of them want one very badly.)