Westministenders: May dug a deep stinky hole and UK politics has tumbled in

[BigChocFrenzy]

May almost certainly won't resign even after this huge defeat.

She's survived umpteen other humiliating defeats.
Her record strongly suggests she'll cling on to office with broken fingernails until Brexit (or Revoke) happens

After the ERG failed to topple her last month, she can legally stay as Tory party leader at least until December.
Besides, would any of her likely successors as Tory Party leader - Leadsome, Boris, JRM, Gove - be any better ... or bring even worse horrors ?

Corbyn has called a No Confidence vote
NC debate to be held at 7pm today.

He'll lose, because the DUP and the ERG - who voted down her WA - have genuine Confidence in her, of course 🤔

The Labour Party conference agreed their policy would be to get a GE, but failing that to go for a PV.
However, Corbyns latest statement is still against a PV
Will he finally give in, or try to out-stubborn May ?

The HoC doesn't want No Deal - but can't yet agree what they do want.
if they and / or May don't specifically choose something else, then No Deal is what automatically happens

May had told the cabinet she'd just keep pushing the WA, but it's now a dead parrot of a WA.

So she's "reaching out" to the other parties whom she's rudely rejected for the last 2.5 years
Maybe ongoing cross-party talks will ignore her and succeed on agreeing a new approach
BUT
The EU have said they will only renegotiate if the UK drops some of its red lines
Otherwise it's either this unchange WA or No Deal

Many analysts think this impasse means that May will have to ask the EU for an A50 extension.
She keeps saying she won't delay Brexit - but after she became PM she kept denying she'd hold a GE, right up until she announced it.

EU officials have hinted they would extend until the end of June.
However, an extension would have to be unanimously approved.
Would any of the 27 countries veto, in exasperation with the UK's ridiculous performance the last 2 years ?

I know on Westministenders we're all exasperated with it !

Agree Farage is a master negotiator. In many respects he is just like Corbyn.
Trump’s idea of making him Ambassador was shamefully overlooked.

include Nigel Farage in this as well.

Nigel Farage. The man who can’t even explain away how paying for a private plane to Strasbourg doesn’t mean he’s part of the elite?

Ok.

They need to negotiate together - well the saner members of both teams do - about how to proceed
That should mean scoping out all the options
and
at an early stage agreeing that No Deal is too dreadful for the economy, so must be ruled out.

Also, the SNP must participate too

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Vince Cable is likely to meet the PM tonight, and Plaid Cymru leader Liz Saville Roberts will meet her to to 'tell her to her face take no deal off the table and give us a people's vote'

Here's Vince and Theresa earlier today

Robert Peston @peston
.@vincecable says do not pick up phone and speak with him on Brexit solution unless she will rule out no deal and consider referendum. She replies she won’t bother. The impasse nutshelled #PMQs

Tedious.

May can't take no deal off the table alone. She needs to activate parliament to agree something. Otherwise she's promising to revoke if there is no agreement. Simply cos no deal is the default.

Corbyn refusing to go to talks allows the Tories to blame him for things stalling. He should go and start bringing out the conditions once he's there or send Starmer instead

PMK

Christopher Hope@christopherhope
^Jeremy Corbyn has a constitutional role as Leader of HM Opposition. He receives a significant salary for his extra duties.
Yet he is refusing to meet with Theresa May to try to sort out the Brexit crisis.^

Exactly, red
She needs something to replace No Deal before she can rule it out

I know many here want her to Revoke, but - if that is ever possible - she would need to be led up to it gradually, not stumbling into it like this

Daniel Hannan @DanielJHannan
I think pure EFTA - no plusses - might just get majority support. It would leave Britain in the single market and with free movement of labour, but outside the CAP, CFP, customs union, foreign and defence policies, criminal justice policies etc.

Gove is thought to below to a similar camp to Hannan BTW.

May won’t go for FOM.

It's not 'replacing' No Deal as an option it's admitting it's suicide and thus not actually valid as an option at all.

If Parliament can rule out No Deal which they should be able to given the numbers against it, then the real options are clearer.

Surely EFTA doesn’t fix the NI border problem? If not, what use is it?

I wish the BBC subtitles held the solution to our parliamentary problems!!!

fwiw i would support a EFTA deal but i don't see its Labours job to bail out the Cons.
Its their mess and if they can't sort it, then have a GE ?

Feels like a more realistic solution than some others that have been proposed Red

{There are some heavy hitters on both sides. Why didn’t a cross party group get set up two years ago. The UK could have wiped the floor with Junker et al. I include Nigel Farage in this as well. He is a great debator.}
A bit of delusion here. The EU is pretty good at keeping China and Trump on their toes so the concept of the UK 'wiping the floor' with the EU team seems rather far fetched.
The EU are only being polite because they believe in the people of the UK rather than the politicians and hope that the UK will continue to play a significant part in Europe despite the current muppets in Westminster (of all flavours).

Currently there are only the options May's WA / Revoke / No Deal, even if this choice is delayed by extension

With WA dead, removing no Deal as the default means making Revoke the default,
which is not somewhere May or her party are prepared to go, at least not at this stage.

EFTA + CU = might as well Reman and keep our place at the table.

David Allen Green@davidallengreen
A precondition that the automatic operation of law is off the table before discussing possible alternatives to the automatic operation of law is quite a precondition, if you think about it.

Bingo.

May may be forced away from No Deal by the rest of Parliament. All the Tory Remainers are against it.

I don't think anything which agrees FoM is going to be workable. There are far too many people (ime) for whom immigration was a huge part of the reason for voting leave. Some simply racist but others with a more reasoned argument.

For the record, I've historically been a labour voter. Maybe my millions of "I love corbyn" posts are what the pp was referring to.

Meanwhile, back in the real world, I'm actually finding myself wishing SNP were the official opposition.

RTB and BCF, I am struggling with your role reversal I am used to RTB being in green!

Hasn't Norway already said it might or would oppose the UK joining EFTA (assuming it's the right grouping)?

Born The SM alone wouldn't. We'd need a CA (Customs Arrangement as well), nut not necessarily a full CU

In fact not actually EFTA - because Norway & probably the others - no longer want us.
All new EU laws have to be agreed unanimoisly by EFTA before applying them
So far, this has worked outb well

However, EFTA think we'd arbitrarily refuse to accept new laws, just for say Boris to show the public we're special
That would then land all of EFTA in the soup.

Hence we'd have to be a new 3rd pillar, like an EFTA on our own, copying the EFTA template and adding a CA,

• plus imo adding in financial passporting, since the City provides about 12% of our GDP and govt tax income
• plus membership of essential agencies & institutions, like EASA (flights), EURATOM, Galileo

In other words, do a proper negotiating job this time and keep the things we need, while accepting we have to give up red lines on FOM and ECJ in turn.

There must be a few 100s of thousands if not millions of Labour no dealers who he has now alienated?

not as many as there are remainers who would all be horrified at him getting all cosy with May. There are so many more reasons for him to avoid talking with May, especially if the LD and Greens aren't joining in, losing a few labour leavers is the least bad thing that could happen for him right now I think.