Tuesday is scheduled to be the date of the Withdrawal Agreement Vote.
The current expectation is it will fail to pass. Badly.
If this is the case then May will have to report to the HoC about what her Plan B is within 3 sitting days under Grieve IV - by the end of Monday 21st January (which was the original date that Grieve III set).
Its being reported that if it fails that May will make some sort of statement either late on Tuesday or Wednesday before flying to Brussels in order to try and calm the markets.
This weekend has been full of politicking to position to get the WA to pass. Some of this is to push those who think that May will revoke or extent which will endanger leaving and some of it is to push those who fear no deal. Nothing is likely to be exactly what it appears.
The feeling is that No10 is currently working more to keep the defeat as small as possible in order to keep alive the possibility of representing the WA to parliament at a later date.
This week has seen big announcements from the car industry; none of which have been unexpected and some of which were connected to technology change and were likely to have been an inevitability to some extent, but the timing the week before the vote should also focus some minds.
We've had the news that 4000 civil servants from the following departments - Defence, International Development, Work and Pensions and the Education department - being lined up to handle no deal brexit, with secondments of up to 6 months. (The idea that staff from W&P might be moved with all the problems with UC is mind boggling).
We've also had the rumour that May has spoken to the Tory MEPs to inform them that if there is a chance of extending a50 and this means the UK would take part in June's European Elections. Many of the newspapers have been reporting this weekend that there is a high chance that the UK will not leave the EU on the 29th March as scheduled leading to the pound rising to its highest level in 7 months.
Dominic Grieve has stated the following, and I think its worth keeping an eye on.
Jack Maidment @jrmaidment
Dominic Grieve: Govt should immediately remove Brexit date from domestic law if it loses on Tuesday.
"without doing that there is no point in going to the EU and asking for an extension because we would still be crashing out and that would have to be, I think, a top priority"
It has been somewhat misinterpreted in some quarters as Grieve suggesting we change the UK's exit date. Its not. Its a reference to how UK law has a date set in it, so even if we did get an extension UK law would in effect automatically exit us legally on a domestic level, even if on an international level we were still members. This creates a bit of an issue whereby parliament would have to vote to make this change somehow, which would need to be facilitated by the government in some way - which means coming from the PM which obviously will be somewhat problematic for the cohesiveness of the Tory Party.
Indeed The Sunday Telegraph is tonight reporting that the Tories are on the brink of an historic split, with Brexiteers and Remainers both threatening to 'torpedo the Government if they do not get their way on Brexit'.
Pro-EU Mps are claiming that a third of the Cabinet would resign if May pursued a no deal Brexit and that several senior minsters want May to immediately open talks with Labour MPs about a compromise involving a permanent customs union if her deal is defeated by a large margin.
Steve Baker is warning that this would risk a split in the party 'akin to the schism prompted by Robert Peel's repeal of the corn laws'. And Bernard Jenkin has said that any attempt to change the exit date or strike a deal with the Labour Party would destroy the Conservative Party. For once, its hard to argue with either of them and say they are completely wrong.
Of course this also doesn't seem to fit with Labour's plans. The Observer is reporting that Corbyn plans to table a dramatic vote of no confidence in May as early as Tuesday evening in an attempt to force a GE. This is, to put it bluntly, fucking ridiculous. He would only need 7 Tory / DUP rebels (on top of the rest of the house) or some abstainers but it remains to be seen who these would be. A three line whip for Tuesday night, including for all unwell MPs is in effect for Labour.
Both the Mail on Sunday and The Sunday Times lead with similar stories about changing the rules of the HoC in order to effectively sideline the PM. The Mail refers to it as a plot between Grieve and Bercow, but the Times is much more broad stating:
A cross party group of senior backbenchers - including former Tory Ministers - plan what one senior figure branded a "very British coup" if May loses the crunch vote on her Brexit deal on Tuesday
At least two groups of rebel MPs are plotting to change Commons rules so motions proposed by backbenchers take precedence over government business, upending the centuries old relationship between executive and legislature.
Downing Street believe that would enable MPs to suspend article 50, putting Brexit on hold, and could even lead to the referendum result being overturned - a move that would plunge the country into a constitutional crisis.
The funny thing about all this news is at no point have I seen discussed whether we could extend a50 as it stands - as thats down to the EU. And at no point have I seen anything about how the EU would facilitate ratifying the WA at the eleventh hour if we have to go for round 2.
Indeed the growing feeling does seem to be largely that one way or another the WA is dead in the water if it has a large defeat. The question is perhaps now, what will the ERG do in this context? Will they plough on trying to persue No Deal? Because that too would surely lead to a split in the Tory party in some way.
A cross party group referred to the 'Norway Group' (Boles, Letwin, Morgan and Kinock) are apparently planning according to Boles, to make No Deal illegal.
So to put it mildly, next week is looking absoluetely mind blowingly crazy and likely to be explosive in some way or another.
And finally. Here's a handy tool for you.
How Many Days Until Brexit Timer