Westministenders: Passing the Buck

[RedToothBrush]

There's a deal.

The press are over excited.

May has united the country.

Everyone hates it.
(Apart from David Allen Green)

Parliament might yet reject it.

Nothing is yet decided and everything is still to be sorted.

Alberto Nardelli @AlbertoNardelli
EU27 meeting of ambassadors has ended. Diplomats told no word yet from London whether UK ministers have given greenlight to the deal. Diplomats also told that substance of the Northern Ireland backstop is the previously reported three options to pick by July 2020

If there is a deal in the UK this evening the following will happen: - joint Barnier-Raab presser - Barnier will recommend Tusk call a special EUCO - work continues on docs - EU27 ambos meet Fri/Sat - TBD: EU ministers meeting on Monday - Tue: full text on future relationship

After that, also next week: EU27 sherpa meeting. EU27 diplomats have also been told that the Brexit EUCO (25 Nov.) will only be to approve the text/s because European Council president Donald Tusk doesn’t want a drafting discussion/debate among leaders

Crucially, all this if green light arrives from the UK. If that isn't forthcoming, the December EUCO (13-14 Dec.) would be the last possibility for a Brexit deal.

Peter Foster @pmdfoster
Barring a micro-extension of Article 50....

James Patrick @J_amesp
IF May’s deal survives cabinet, which it could in spite of likely resignations, it will go to Parliament. Parliament looks set to vote it down. There won’t then be anything to go back to the EU to ask for, leaving the Government to the inevitable no deal motion in January.

At that stage it won’t be May’s fault. It will be everyone in opposition, including hardcore Remain Tories. Subsequently the PM becomes much more free to pass muster in whatever course of action she takes. Just basic political strategy. If she’s that lucky is on cabinet though.

Brexit is so male. Fascism normally is.

@bbclaurak
Senior tory tells me Brexiteer anger so high that seems likely there will be a call for no confidence vote tomorrow - letters going in -

Sorry, Fascism always is.

Agree woman

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
Understand that a ministerial briefing on the draft Withdrawal Agreement meant to drum up support from some trade organisations due tonight has now been postponed

How can anyone be in support of this deal?

I don't like BJ or JRM but taking rules from Brussels without any input into their formation is very wrong and nothing at all like we had before (where we were a leading player) its basically some sort of colonial rule and as already said, could go on for many years, if not decades.

We should prep for no deal rather than this IF that is the only other possible option.

Brexitiers have helped turn us into a vassal state so well fucking done.

I agree Irene. Why are they so angry? What were they hoping she’d do? What is their alternative plan?

(Actually, apparently this is their alternative plan - I haven’t read it though as I’m allergic) www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2018/07/exclusive-the-alternative-brexit-white-paper-a-draft-from-dexeu-1-mutual-recognition-not-ongoing-harmonisation.html

Laura Hughes @LauraKHughes
One eurosceptic MP, who has submitted a letter of no-confidence, tells FT: "There has been some letter writing today. I for one will not be withdrawing mine, I feel more strongly that she should go now than I did when I sent it over the summer."

sigh

Its going to be like this all evening isn't it?

James Patrick @J_amesp
Of course, if a no confidence goes through via the party - which won’t be the same as parliament and won’t trigger a GE, because the party won’t gift Brexit powers to Labour - May will be replaced by an ERG loon, so the deal would be torn up and straight to no deal on day one.

No no no no ERG nutter please

Yeah, if Labour abstained she wouldn't need 320.

My attempt at working out the numbers (please keep in mind that Maths is not my strong point and I'm shaky on the workings of the HoC too!..):

There are 650 seats. Sinn Fein don't take their 7, so that's 643. I'm fairly sure the Speaker (Tory) doesn't vote outside of very specific circumstances, so 642. Take off the three deputy Speakers (two Labour, one Tory) and we're down to 639: if all 639 MPs vote on something, 320 of them are needed to win.
If each of Labour's 255 eligible MPs (because I've taken two deputies out) abstained from a vote, and no one else did, there would be 383 (taken another deputy out) MPs voting so the number needed to win would be 192. I reckon May could get that number of Tory MPs to back her. If I've added them up right (I probably haven't) there are 70 sitting MPs who are not Labour, Tory or Sinn Fein. If all of them voted against the deal, and Labour abstained, it would need 122 Tory rebels for it not to pass. I don't see that many Tories rebelling.

I would like to be wrong though.

I think I took the deputies out twice actually. But the gist of it remains the same. I think!

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Don’t forget there are lots of tories who just want this over with and who want to back the PM to get Brexit out of the way - but they might not be able to restrain their colleagues who want her out of the way instead

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Understand there has not yet been an official ERG decision to get group to push button on letters going in, but levels of anger so high that some are doing it anyway - this might be the start of crashing into a leadership contest by accident - impossible to tell yet

Thanks mostdays thats an explanation i can understand

Labour votes might not get through
Labour abstain likely to get through

But first she needs to get through this meeting with herself and deal still standing. 😨

Reply to Laura k...

Andrew Scott Crines @AndrewCrines
"We had a leadership contest by mistake...." #Withnail #Brexit #BrexitDeal

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
So while the Cabinet are still sitting inside, outside it seems the Tory backbenches might be moving to take the decision out of their hands

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
Just pause a moment and spare a thought for those poor currency traders who placed massive bets on the pound rising - assuming TM was about to get a deal.

Not looking so good now....

Whoops

Bloomberg Brexit @Brexit
LATEST: Dominic Raab is no longer expected in Brussels this evening, British diplomat says

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Sounds like statement imminent

I'm terrified of leadership contest for fear of ERG loon. If that happens we're toast.

Are you thinking of Archie Norman peregrina ?

Yes, I was. Haven't a clue who the other one is.

Why are they so angry
Blokes.
If that happens we're toast
We have ways.

What ways women?

Cabinet meeting has broken up.

Meant woman