Westministenders: Game Over?

[RedToothBrush]

May has a draft deal which she has presented to the Cabinet. Woohooo!

The catch is, it doesn't mention the Irish Border. Just a minor point. This is because she has no way forward on it. There are so many red lines from so many different groups shes tangled up in knots with them.

She wrote a letter to the DUP to tell them to suck it up. Arlene has told her to stick it. And if she hadn't told her to stick it, Scottish Tories would have told her to stick it. David Davis has told her to stick it. Rees-Moog has told her to stick it. And this afternoon, one of the Ministers for Queues at Dover, Jo Johnson, told her to stick it and that we need a people's vote. On top of that, her plans to try and get cross party support and get the Labour Party to support it, have suffered a blow as Momentum voted to tell May to stick it.

In fact it might be harder to think of people who WILL support it.

Not that this is a surprise. We've all be aware of this for some time. Is it finally game over?

The government have at least seemingly realised that this month is the last opportunity they have for a deal. Dominic has also realised that Dover is quite close to France and this is quite a big deal.

The EU pushed back their meeting until the 27th. This coincidentally is the same day there is a decision over a50 at the ECJ and the right to revoke.

If May can't get her act together over the Irish Border, this might yet prove to be the last option open to her, to prevent Brexmaggeddon.

Jo Johnson is not too far from the mark with vassalage or chaos? Take your pick Mrs May.

I’m at work and can’t keep up. Looking forward to a summary this evening at least!

So the EU have won then

I’m not quite confortable with that statement.
I dint think the EU started some sort of war where they wanted to get the most of the U.K. and somehow managed it.
It's the UK who started it all. And it started the termination of a contract whilst trying to agree on another at the same time.
The issue has been a basic, can you propose an agreement that is working within our rules?
If the EU sticking to their guns and preserving their rules (which the U.K. has helped creating btw), then maybe you can say they ‘won’.
But the WA has never been like the negotiation of a trade deal imo. (I’m thinking like the trade deal with Canada) because it involves NI, RoI and the GFA.

I suspect it will go through Parliament. Not because it’s a good deal but because it’s the only Deal and the only other alternative is so deeply frightening.

I also think that TM has always said we would Get a Deal somshe was likely, at the 11 hour to bow to the EU redlines of respecting the GFA.
The rest, for what I can gather, has been agreed while ago.

Dh sent me this, stolen from Twitter

Problems all solved

I wonder if this deal will see the disappearance of JRM and his ilk from our media ? Now they've got "Brexit", there's no mileage in them banging on about how bad it is. I wonder if all of a sudden they'll be wanting an(other) vote on it ?

I don’t know how to copy tweets like you do:

“Our relationship is with the Conservative Party it is not a fact of a relationship with Theresa May... our confidence and supply arrangement is signed with the Conservative Party” @DUPleader tells @skydavidblevins

I'm distrustful pessimistic about Labour: even if the DUP vote against it, I think it will still pass due to Labour ambivalence

De lurking, after being a silent passenger from day one, to ask more knowledgeable folk.....If (big if) the WA gets through parliament in December, is the future trade deal, to be negotiated during transition, also subject to parliamentary scrutiny/vote? Could MPs therefore at this juncture insist upon a cross-parliamentary group to negotiate a trade deal, as a condition of their support for the WA? One that can’t be weasled out of? My supposition would be that a cross parliament negotiation is mostly likely to result in the softest of BINOs, or indeed 2nd ref to rejoin. But it would at least provide some balance?

I’m probably doing the most wishful of wishful thinking. I am a full remainer, but can’t see how anything other than some kind of Brexit is now possible in the time we have (bar miraculous u-turn). If the tide is turning back to remain/ BINO, it will need a few years perhaps to bed in, a transition time in which saner (!) heads can prevail?

A transition overseen by this shower though? shudders

Thank you all for your wonderful postings over the years. I have directed many friends to this little corner of considered debate, so you do have much support, even from those of us too shy to post usually!

{I wonder if this deal will see the disappearance of JRM and his ilk from our media ?}
I doubt it. They will be using their 'Brexit dividend' with friends in low places to come up with other plans. If it is a 'Russian inspired' attempt to break up the EU, for which carving off the UK was the first step, there will be more to come. Similarly there will be 'deals' with the USA. Remember that 'Foxy babe' had a few words in the USA a while ago and there is a 4 year embargo on reporting what was discussed.

Interesting analysis from the New Statesman opinion piece thinking it's unlikely to pass partly because of Labour and mostly because the numbers needed just don't stack up.

"That has implications for the chances of Labour MPs breaking the party whip to bail out Theresa May's deal. Many of their number want to avert a No Deal Brexit and worry that voting against May's deal will trigger one, and others are worried what will happen to them if they get on the wrong side of your constituents on Brexit.

"But of course, Labour MPs in these two groups can count just as well as the rest of us, and they know full well that there aren't enough of them to plausibly outnumber all the nailed-on Tory rebels."

Square, and others, don't be 'shy'. Any, even half thought out questions are likely to be answered politely. It is a thread for throwing ideas around but saying that, not many 'leave' ideas bear much scrutiny before they fall flat. There ARE some good reasons to leave but the benefits in this world that has changed vastly since the UK joined the 'Common Market' seem to outweigh the downsides.

it's unlikely to pass partly because of Labour and mostly because the numbers needed just don't stack up
That was the point of the rally. Courage mes braves.

I think Labour abstaining will get this through.

As for this So the EU have won then

Nobody has won, Brexit is lose, lose.

re: JRM, and the rat pack. I'm wondering if we get "Brexit" there will be such a media platform for them ? Having won the fucking referendum, and now having got "Brexit" through parliament (thanks Jezza !) it's a little hard to sustain a "poor us" narrative which was what buoyed them up previously ?

I don't think the general public will have the stomach to hear anything more about the EU for some time to come. Which might be an incentive for some to try for no deal, I guess. After all, there's only one thing worse than being talked about ...

To be honest, if Jezza backing this agreement pisses her off, it's not been a bad life for me. Obviously could have been a lot better, but you need to take cheer where you can find it (as we taught ourselves during that fucking war the Brexiteers keep dreaming of).

labourlist.org/2018/11/kate-hoey-i-wont-vote-for-a-brexit-deal-that-panders-to-the-irish-governments-hypocrisy/

During all my years as an MP, the interest shown by most of my colleagues in Northern Ireland has been minimal. The Labour Party even had to be taken to court by a trade unionist in Belfast before it finally allowed citizens of Northern Ireland to join. Even with over a thousand members there, the party still disallows Labour candidates to stand in elections. So it has been rather ironic that in the Brexit debate Labour MPs have been queuing up to mention Northern Ireland. What happens at the border after we leave the EU has become the ‘big sticking point’ causing the Prime Minister to make commitments to backstops that few understand and even fewer support.

(contd).

Has May managed to stitch up Labour then? (This is a cause as dear to her heart as putting the needs of the Tory party first before the needs of the country.) If Labour vote with her to support this deal they are siding with one of the most incompetent governments in history, if they vote against it's no deal, and they will be held as much to blame for the ensuing crisis. The only option I can see would be for all the other parties to abstain, the WA would pass, but it would be a wholly Tory deal, and any problems caused by it would be theirs alone.

This is the fucking problem. Everyone is more concerned with how they can shift he blame rather than doing something about it. FFS the state of politics in this country!

Not aimed at posters here but our Mps

I think Labour SOP in this case is to abstain, with a "not me guv" expression on their faces. (As Stewart Lee said, "running away from it like a dog that has smelt it's own fart") Presumably they've decided that electoral success is overrated. Or maybe they're just aiming for that late 70s and 80s vibe when no one gave a shit what Labour did, as the Tories were in for the long haul.

A general election would only serve a purpose with a remainder In charge of Labour, with the current leaders GE will change nothing

Talks I'm sure the EU would be delighted to agree if a future govt wanted to change the deal to Norway++
Any deal can be changed by mutual agreement.

That"s why I think this is the best deal we can get:

• the govt has shown now that it will chicken out of No Deal
  ==> transition will be extended several years.

• Plenty of time in transition for public opinion to change enough so that* a new govt is elected which has advocated Norway++,*
  which is the best deal - or even apply for a quick rejoin via A49 !

The alternative of voting down the deal is VERY high risk, because the automatic defult is No Deal
with the horror of people dying from lack of meds;
more of the most vulnerable dying of hunger & cold

Even the most fanatically pro-EU person, or the most patriotic Scot should think hard if they can be this ruthless

Even if the ECJ rules the UK can unilaterally revoke, so the UK can very quickly do this on its own
the HoC has NO way of forcing the govt to revoke and currently only a few MPs even want this

What is May banking on?

Any Leave MPs should vote for the deal because they are scared we will remain if they don’t support the deal.

Any Remain MPs should vote for the deal because they are scared of no deal if they don’t support the deal?

This is actually like a poker game, with peoples lives and livelihoods as the chips. Bloody scary.

Delurking to ask...

So TM has basically spent 2 years saying "No Deal is better than a bad deal"... but will be going in to Cabinet today to say "you need to vote for this deal or risk crashing out with no deal?"

head spins