Westministenders: Game Over?

[RedToothBrush]

May has a draft deal which she has presented to the Cabinet. Woohooo!

The catch is, it doesn't mention the Irish Border. Just a minor point. This is because she has no way forward on it. There are so many red lines from so many different groups shes tangled up in knots with them.

She wrote a letter to the DUP to tell them to suck it up. Arlene has told her to stick it. And if she hadn't told her to stick it, Scottish Tories would have told her to stick it. David Davis has told her to stick it. Rees-Moog has told her to stick it. And this afternoon, one of the Ministers for Queues at Dover, Jo Johnson, told her to stick it and that we need a people's vote. On top of that, her plans to try and get cross party support and get the Labour Party to support it, have suffered a blow as Momentum voted to tell May to stick it.

In fact it might be harder to think of people who WILL support it.

Not that this is a surprise. We've all be aware of this for some time. Is it finally game over?

The government have at least seemingly realised that this month is the last opportunity they have for a deal. Dominic has also realised that Dover is quite close to France and this is quite a big deal.

The EU pushed back their meeting until the 27th. This coincidentally is the same day there is a decision over a50 at the ECJ and the right to revoke.

If May can't get her act together over the Irish Border, this might yet prove to be the last option open to her, to prevent Brexmaggeddon.

Jo Johnson is not too far from the mark with vassalage or chaos? Take your pick Mrs May.

'brexit' as in the so called 'deal' = no police.

@PeterStefanovi2
Following loss of £25 million from its budget in last eight years Chief Constable of Dorset Police, James Vaughan, said it means they "may no longer be able to provide anything but the most basic services to the most vulnerable sectors of our community"

Some of these traitorous twats that have brought this on us deserve prison. I suspect they will get book deals and a life on the pundit circuit.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-news-deal-theresa-may-poll-survey-eu-deadline-trade-a8631981.html

Brexit: Only 16% of experts believe Theresa May will secure future trade deal before December 2020 deadline

Surveyed by the UK in a Changing Europe initiative, 42 per cent believed no-deal would be secured.

Cabinet members were called in to discuss the draft withdrawal agreement text produced by the British and European negotiating teams.

Prior to the announcement about the settlement, only 11 per cent of the experts polled, believed a deal would be made this month.

The time we have is extremely limited because the EU is not going to start negotiating properly until they have a new European Commission in place, which won’t happen until November,” he told The Independent. “We currently have less than 21 months, which regardless of other factors, would still likely not be long enough."

The survey also found that 70 per cent of experts believed that foreign direct investment (FDI) to the UK from outside of the EU would fall in the next five years.

I wonder if this is why the MP is pushing so had to block the 'can A50 be withdrawn' case from being heard at the ECJ? Does to strengthen her 'my deal or no deal' threat? Or, if the case isnt heard then does that mean it's still unclear if A50 can be withdrawn or not keeping her emergency parachute?

I actually think most leave voters will be happy with May's deal. It ends FOM and that's actually all most of them cared about, I think May recognises that and will be shouting about that to get the public (well, the racists) on side.

If the government are sending piles of cash to NI (DUP) to keep them sweet, why shouldn't Scotland and the areas of England that have been starved of investment for decades also get some?

If this gets through the cabinet I can't see how it gets through Parliament if the DUP, ERG supporters, Tory remainers and the vast majority of Labour MPs with the SNP, Lib Dems and Greens vote it down. Have read that Anna Soubry wouldn't confirm if she'd vote against it so maybe as usual the Tory rebels won't rebel.

1tisILeClerc - I agree.

While I can understand the idea of crashing out to make the ERG etc 'loadsamoney' through disaster capitalism, what the heck are all the others doing to want to preside over a trainwreck? Surely they can't ALL be in the DC camp or 'payroll'?

I’m confused

• Let’s say, the WA is acceptable to most; in that it agrees citizens rights, NI backstop & financial settlement.

• Parliament votes, accepts the WA and we Brexit.

• We then negotiate the future relationship with further ‘meaningful votes’?

Assuming (I know, big assumption - but that’s another topic) that citizens’ rights and the financial settlement are straightforward and that the entire WA is watertight and legally binding - the only area left for negotiation is the final deal; the one we’re transitioning to in Jan ‘21?

The NI backstop sets the framework for this deal and any deviation from the backstop must be agreed with the EU.

So the WA is more than just a WA, it sets our future relationship with the EU in stone - unless and until a better idea materialises 🦄

Sorry, just rambling and trying to get my head round it - probably all very obvious to you lot.

At the speed this thread is filling up it should be time for a 'refill' possibly tomorrow morning or late tonight so with luck RTB will post a recap of where we are as part of the new thread because there is so much (deliberate) twisting and turning going on who knows.

Been following this thread for ages, but never feel well enough informed to contribute anything useful.
I think most expats will be a bit fucked in the end. I am one, but have an Irish passport and aplied for Spanish citizenship almost 2 years ago, after the referendum result.
I don't know enough to back this up with anything concrete but still think this is all going to fall apart and result in No Deal crash out at the last minute.

If we have to have Brexit, then one that leaves the ERG and other Brexiteer headbangers "deeply disappointed" is a small consolation.

The ERG and others will have been playing the market over the last couple of years as with each new announcement by 'betting' on the likely outcomes their money can gradually ratchet up it's value, probably easy when you have traders doing the actual job for you! Of course a grand blowout of 'total collapse' may be an end goal but to them it is just a game. Once you get beyond a couple of million and a house or three life probably gets boring, so they will have secured what they have and are just 'playing' with the rest. Somewhere between 1 and 2 £million passes through the hands of the 'average' Brit in a 50 year working life so those with say 10 Million at once have 'nothing' to do.
Although there are supposedly 500 pages of material to wade through, you would hope it is not all 'new' to them, otherwise what have they been doing for 2 years?

The 'average' EU citizen hasn't 'won' anything, they have LOST big time by being forced to pay extra taxes to 'fund' the UK's flouncing out.
Add to that extra paperwork and hassle for companies dealing with the UK in future.

The EU haven't 'won' anything either for that matter. Winning or losing doesn't come into it, it wasn't a competition.

We said we're leaving, they said fine. We wanted a withdrawal agreement rather than severing all ties from day one, they said fine - as long as you can come up with something which is within the rules you helped write.

I found myself on several occasions literally holding my breath while listening to the news this morning

I agree with bigchoc that this deal may well be the best outcome we can get now, and also with this, DGR : If we have to have Brexit, then one that leaves the ERG and other Brexiteer headbangers "deeply disappointed" is a small consolation.

However, I too don’t see how it can get through HOC with DUP and SNP against it. Or how it could not lead to the break up of the UK afterwards.

Still so angry about the situation. Back to holding my breath.

However, I too don’t see how it can get through HOC with DUP and SNP against it.

It's down to Labour innit?