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Brexit

Westministenders: Game Over?

988 replies

RedToothBrush · 09/11/2018 16:32

May has a draft deal which she has presented to the Cabinet. Woohooo!

The catch is, it doesn't mention the Irish Border. Just a minor point. This is because she has no way forward on it. There are so many red lines from so many different groups shes tangled up in knots with them.

She wrote a letter to the DUP to tell them to suck it up. Arlene has told her to stick it. And if she hadn't told her to stick it, Scottish Tories would have told her to stick it. David Davis has told her to stick it. Rees-Moog has told her to stick it. And this afternoon, one of the Ministers for Queues at Dover, Jo Johnson, told her to stick it and that we need a people's vote. On top of that, her plans to try and get cross party support and get the Labour Party to support it, have suffered a blow as Momentum voted to tell May to stick it.

In fact it might be harder to think of people who WILL support it.

Not that this is a surprise. We've all be aware of this for some time. Is it finally game over?

The government have at least seemingly realised that this month is the last opportunity they have for a deal. Dominic has also realised that Dover is quite close to France and this is quite a big deal.

The EU pushed back their meeting until the 27th. This coincidentally is the same day there is a decision over a50 at the ECJ and the right to revoke.

If May can't get her act together over the Irish Border, this might yet prove to be the last option open to her, to prevent Brexmaggeddon.

Jo Johnson is not too far from the mark with vassalage or chaos? Take your pick Mrs May.

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BigChocFrenzy · 13/11/2018 22:51

Wednesday’s Daily EXPRESS: “This Brexit Deal Is Best For Britain”
#bbcpapers #tomorrowspaperstoday

Westministenders: Game Over?
GD12 · 13/11/2018 22:52

At least the cabinet member was admitting no deal would be a disaster.

BigChocFrenzy · 13/11/2018 22:53

but TIMES: “May accused of betrayal as she unveils Brexit deal” #bbcpapers #tomorrowspaperstoday

Westministenders: Game Over?
smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 13/11/2018 22:54

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Talkstotrees · 13/11/2018 22:55

A bad deal is better than no deal. What a sad indictment. Bollocks to Brexit.

Mrsr8 · 13/11/2018 22:58

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BigChocFrenzy · 13/11/2018 23:01

Steven Swinfordd@Steven*Swinfordd_ (DailyTelegraph Dep. Political Editor)

Exclusive:
_
What does PM's backstop look like?

_
Geoffrey Cox told Cabinet
NI will be in a 'different regulatory regime' & 'subject to EU law & institutions' under PM's deal.

He warned plans may ‘cross a line’ for the DUP - which it very clearly has

< so claims of NO NI-specific Backstop not legally valid, even if the language so far alims otherwise - is true, clearly an attempt to bamboozle the DUP, but too many leaks for that >

BigChocFrenzy · 13/11/2018 23:03

<a class="break-all" href="http://go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=mobile.twitter.com/Steven_Swinford" target="_blank">Steven Swinfordd<a class="break-all" href="http://go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=mobile.twitter.com/Steven_Swinford" target="_blank">@StevenSwinfordd (DailyTelegraph Dep. Political Editor)

Geoffrey Cox told Cabinet that the backstop is an issue of 'calculated risk' & ministers have to decide 'how much they are prepared to take'
He said that they will have to make 'unpalatable choices'. Which is probably putting it mildly for some in Cabinet...

GD12 · 13/11/2018 23:03

^^ There's an agreement with the EU on the Withdrawal arrangements it appears. May has taken each of the cabinet members in one by one to "sell" the agreement to them. It appears the whole of the UK will be in the backstop but NI is still in there but "hidden?". The UK will essentially be in the customs union probably forever taking EU laws and regs but without any say in making them. The Hard Brexiteers are going crazy about this as its a worse position than were currently in (obviously as we're in the best position now). Whether or not the cabinet or ultimately parliament accept this Withdrawal agreement is anyones guess. I think that's correct anyway.

Quietrebel · 13/11/2018 23:05

As far as I understand, we get a kind of Brino which is not enough for remainers and way too much for brexiteers. There is a risk the deal won't survive though and then it's total panic and a risk of no deal or a PV.

BigChocFrenzy · 13/11/2018 23:07

Also, despite the fancy talk, the Solicitor-General has warned the Cabinet that legally NI will be treated differently.
imo, an NI backstop by another name

Hence Arlene saying
"It would be democratically unacceptable for Northern Ireland trade rules to be set by Brussels.
Northern Ireland would have no representation in Brussels and would be dependent on a Dublin government speaking up for our core industries."

smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 13/11/2018 23:08

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Message withdrawn at poster's request.

GD12 · 13/11/2018 23:10

Anyone else expect the cabinet to reject it tomorrow and May to resign by tomorrow evening?

I still expect a no deal.

BigChocFrenzy · 13/11/2018 23:10

MrsR8 So far it looks like the Cabinet will probably approve it, through clenched teeth.

Question is:
will the HoC also approve ?
If not ... ??

I have read that the vote on the WA will be put to the HoC quite late, in December
That may be because the WA needs to be put fully by lawyers into a legal treaty for signing

smilethoyourheartisbreaking · 13/11/2018 23:14

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Sugarsnappy · 13/11/2018 23:15

I still can't believe this whole thing was put to a public referendum 

BigChocFrenzy · 13/11/2018 23:16

GD12 If reports are correct - see my post upthread - all the key cabinet members have agreed to approve it.
Might be a couple of other resignations, but not so important

The ERG could still formally write / activate their letters to the 1922 Committee and call a Tory leadership election

My judgement - if they dare - is that May would fight this vote - and win,
because most of the party is scared to death and there is no time for a different Brexit except crashing out with no deal

An election demand could even backfire when it comes to the HoC vote, as most Tories do not want a leadership election now in this crisis and will be pissed off if the ERG forces one

Thomasinaa · 13/11/2018 23:20

If this goes through, how will the ERGers behave afterwards? They won't just put up with it.

BigChocFrenzy · 13/11/2018 23:23

Robert Pestonn@Peston*

This is how the EU backstop will work, I have learned.
It is the “swimming pool” model - GB in shallow end, Northern Ireland in deep end.

@theresa_may will get it through her cabinet.
I am pretty sure DUP and Tory Brexiters will hate it

m.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2209151979409535/

Mrsr8 · 13/11/2018 23:28

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Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Hazardswan · 13/11/2018 23:29

Been following all day and just place marking.

Received a people's vote sorry I'm another one who reads PV as PIV email. Urging us to contact our MPs staying we want them to vote the deal down. I've held off as I'm unsure...

BigChocFrenzy · 13/11/2018 23:31

WOW ! 😂😂
Is he going to cry ? !!

Fraser Nelson@FraserNelson

This was Dominic Raab on his way out of his briefing with Theresa May about her Brexit deal.
Great pic from @VictoriaJonesPA

Westministenders: Game Over?
BigChocFrenzy · 13/11/2018 23:32

Not really any of those, MrsR8
I suppose a very inferior BINO comes closest

RedToothBrush · 13/11/2018 23:34

Dom about to blub.

From a political analysis perspective and ignoring my personal stance it possibly is genius to provide something everyone hates.

May Did say when she became PM she would unite the country over Brexit.

Westministenders: Game Over?
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RedToothBrush · 13/11/2018 23:41

Robert Peston @peston
This is how the EU backstop will work, I have learned. It is the “swimming pool” model - GB in shallow end, Northern Ireland in deep end. @theresa_may will get it through her cabinet. I am pretty sure DUP and Tory Brexiters will hate it
t.co/3gIfH43LP0

There you go. We are going for the 'Swimming Pool' model. Not BINO, Norway, Canada or Ukraine.

Swimming Pool. Got that?

No me neither.

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