Westministenders: Game Over?

[RedToothBrush]

May has a draft deal which she has presented to the Cabinet. Woohooo!

The catch is, it doesn't mention the Irish Border. Just a minor point. This is because she has no way forward on it. There are so many red lines from so many different groups shes tangled up in knots with them.

She wrote a letter to the DUP to tell them to suck it up. Arlene has told her to stick it. And if she hadn't told her to stick it, Scottish Tories would have told her to stick it. David Davis has told her to stick it. Rees-Moog has told her to stick it. And this afternoon, one of the Ministers for Queues at Dover, Jo Johnson, told her to stick it and that we need a people's vote. On top of that, her plans to try and get cross party support and get the Labour Party to support it, have suffered a blow as Momentum voted to tell May to stick it.

In fact it might be harder to think of people who WILL support it.

Not that this is a surprise. We've all be aware of this for some time. Is it finally game over?

The government have at least seemingly realised that this month is the last opportunity they have for a deal. Dominic has also realised that Dover is quite close to France and this is quite a big deal.

The EU pushed back their meeting until the 27th. This coincidentally is the same day there is a decision over a50 at the ECJ and the right to revoke.

If May can't get her act together over the Irish Border, this might yet prove to be the last option open to her, to prevent Brexmaggeddon.

Jo Johnson is not too far from the mark with vassalage or chaos? Take your pick Mrs May.

Hester I think I read it is Jesse Norman to replace Jo Johnson. Tempted to add 'who they?'

At least - if this deal is approved - we would have a transition period
Far better than an immediate cliff edge.

Since any trade deal would likely take a lot longer than 20 months - think 10 years - I expect / hope it will get extended and extended ....

Also, whatever the "trade framework / political statement" in the WA,
a future sane govt could still eventually go for a Norway++, because there is nothing to stop a deal being modified in the transition period, if both sides agree.

@red I presume transition would still be under pretty much the same terms as EU membership, except for no voting ?

Of course, during transition, the govt & the EU would have to request non-EU countries to roll over their agreements with the EU for the UK;
it is difficult to decide if this WA would make it more likely - up to now, few have agreed !

@red Depending on the terms of the CU+++, which already has several elements of the SM, I wonder if this might even be incorporated in the WA, or a consequence of it?

Turkey has a CU with the EU and iirc is party to all the trade deals; it doesn't belong to the SM, which is why there are 15-30 hrs delay for goods vehicles at its borders with the EU

Brexit: May tells her cabinet, this is the deal – now back me

Outlines what the Graun thinks the WA will be

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/13/cabinet-members-called-in-to-sign-off-mays-brexit-deal

“Cabinet will meet at 2pm tomorrow to consider the draft agreement the negotiating teams have reached in Brussels, and to decide on next steps,”
a No 10 spokesman confirmed.

“Cabinet ministers have been invited to read documentation ahead of that meeting.”

Should just stay in EU, and forget about it. The cost to the populace would be so much less for a similar result.

The cost to the populace would be so much less for a similar result.
You mean for a better result (best deal is the one we've got!)

Arlene Foster has given it her full backing.

...nah was only kidding!!!!

Politically, that would unleash great resentment, because there is still about a 50:50 split, not enough to over-turn a ref - that would need at least 60%, better 65%

During a long transition, public opinion might change sufficiently so that a future govt could apply to rejoin asap under Article 49 - a major reason why many Ultras want No Deal

Boris Johnson, who resigned as foreign secretary, said he believed the deal was “vassal state stuff”. He said the UK would be bound by laws over which it had no say, which was “utterly unacceptable”.

Hang on a minute , isn't that why people voted Leave in the first place, because the UK was bound by laws it had no say in ? Is he now saying we did ?

Arlene:

" It would be democratically unacceptable for Northern Ireland trade rules to be set by Brussels.
Northern Ireland would have no representation in Brussels and would be dependent on a Dublin government 😂😂* speaking up for our core industries."*

That for me would be one of the few compensations of this mess ! 😂

Interesting day tomorrow folks!

What are the bets. I think the Doopers will be paid off and then a BRINO.

Any thoughts.

Looks like it's a UK wide backstop!

twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1062466422130073601?s=19

Sources confirm no longer a NI specific backstop in the Withdrawal Deal text.

For anyone who needs to see something rather lovely, here’s a 101 year old French woman, Macron and Merkel. Brought a tear to my eye and a smile to my face...

twitter.com/dwnews/status/1062004314393190407?s=21

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn

Brexit deal latest: Cabinet sources say May’s pivotal 5 senior ministers - Raab, Hunt, Javid, Gove and Cox - will back it.
Leadsom and Grayling also on board.

McVey and Mordaunt so far not.

RTE (Connelly) - v reliable so far - reports:

""a UK-wide customs arrangement, but will have "deeper" provisions for Northern Ireland on the customs"

i.e. NI treated differently, one reason why the DUP, Bojo and the hard right are so anti

The UK-wide CU itself will have many of the SM characteristics - the EU insisted on this for a level playing field on trade, in return for the "frictionless trade" that May was insisting on

It's almost the SM, but minus FOM - except across the NI border, because the CTA will still hold.

So for NI, looks like they are adding tghe remaining bits to the Cu to make it basically the SM

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn

The detail on the Irish backstop:
1. A UK-wide customs union, and no NI-only version (UK win)
2. An independent panel to arbitrate a ‘good faith’ end mechanism (UK win)
3. No backstop end date or time limit (UK loss)
4. Full level playing field rules apply thru out (UK loss)

mother Brexit was always going to be a lot worse than what we have now

My hope is that during a long transition, negotiations - under a future govt - will slide logically towards Norway+++
which will be for the whole UK, no special treatment needed anywhere

McVey and Mordaunt so far not.

Does anyone give a genuine shit about either? Even on the Tory Right? Mordaunt clearly wanted to make some noise and anti virtue signaling.

Fox is more important. Not least because he has testicles unlike the gruesome twosome above. And cos his job and entire department is rather screwed and doomed to irrelevance.

We'll have to see what is published - I'm sure the Cabinet will leak beforehand as always ! 😂

Did I miss... has anyone been deciphering the eu no deal contingency texts today? I keep losing concentration but it looks all pretty much yup bad.

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn (Sun)
No10 source says PM will tell Cabinet the negotiation “has been pushed as far as it can go” and the UK “cannot get any better deal than this one”.
Adds: “The PM is firmly of the view that the deal will not be improved by dragging it out any longer”.
...
One gloomy Cabinet source: “The sad reality of where we are now is a bad deal is better than no deal.
There is no time left to stop no deal becoming a disaster”.