Westministenders: Game Over?

[RedToothBrush]

May has a draft deal which she has presented to the Cabinet. Woohooo!

The catch is, it doesn't mention the Irish Border. Just a minor point. This is because she has no way forward on it. There are so many red lines from so many different groups shes tangled up in knots with them.

She wrote a letter to the DUP to tell them to suck it up. Arlene has told her to stick it. And if she hadn't told her to stick it, Scottish Tories would have told her to stick it. David Davis has told her to stick it. Rees-Moog has told her to stick it. And this afternoon, one of the Ministers for Queues at Dover, Jo Johnson, told her to stick it and that we need a people's vote. On top of that, her plans to try and get cross party support and get the Labour Party to support it, have suffered a blow as Momentum voted to tell May to stick it.

In fact it might be harder to think of people who WILL support it.

Not that this is a surprise. We've all be aware of this for some time. Is it finally game over?

The government have at least seemingly realised that this month is the last opportunity they have for a deal. Dominic has also realised that Dover is quite close to France and this is quite a big deal.

The EU pushed back their meeting until the 27th. This coincidentally is the same day there is a decision over a50 at the ECJ and the right to revoke.

If May can't get her act together over the Irish Border, this might yet prove to be the last option open to her, to prevent Brexmaggeddon.

Jo Johnson is not too far from the mark with vassalage or chaos? Take your pick Mrs May.

Useful graphic from the Guardian about the votes needed in the HoC to approve a deal:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/12/brexit-may-plan-through-house-of-commons

LeClerc The EU have to assume No Deal now in their planning - so do the UK
There just isn't time to gamble that there will be a GE or 2nd Ref to extend the time

However, I expect if the EU see a chance that extra time would actually be productive, then they would grant an extension
It would have to be a real chance and a limited extension, because they don't want to be negotiating with the Uk and Italy (re Eurozone rules iirc) at the same time.

Problem is: this has to be unanimous and it only takes one of the E27 to be too pissed off to want this to drag on ....

MyBrexit Labour can't revoke Brexit or call a 2nd Ref - only the govt can do that, or enough Tories would have to side with Labour

If David M or Blair were leader, they would be making lots of speeches we'd like, but they couldn't change Parliamentary arithmatic

After Brexit, this govt will try desperately to avoid a GE until 2022
Corbyn may have retired by then

I doubt if he would get any blame, UNLESS he actually is in power before or shortly after Brexit - in which case he'd be the scapegoat for messing up Brexit

He - and possibly Labour - may well blame the Tories for messing up the promised Brexit and claim they would have managed it much better,
even if Labour then say that the only way out of the mess created by Tories is to apply to rejoin.

What would be different with a "normal" leader of the Labour party, is that they would have been ahead in the polls by 20-30% for several months
and would easily win a GE if the govt collapsed

DG I remember Spain, Greece and Portugal were fascist dictatorships for many years and were only allowed to join the then EC after the restoration of democracy.

My Godfathers family were Spanish (my DF met his DM teaching guitar at nightschool where he was learning English). His DM and her sister were qualified lawyers (Basque) who had to flee Spain when Franco took power.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/12/may-has-little-room-for-manoeuvre-brexit-german-minister-warns

Negotiations will continue intensively this week,
but unless there is dramatic progress by the end of Wednesday, there can be no European summit to sign off a draft deal this month.

“There’s no breakthrough at the moment,” a Whitehall source said.

The absence of a breakthrough means Tuesday’s scheduled cabinet meeting will not be the substantive discussion intended to sign off the UK’s Brexit negotiating position as had been expected.
< that's why the Cabinet meeting kept being postponed >

It will note developments and discuss no-deal planning instead.
< it needs to massively ramp up no-deal prepping or Brexit will be an immediate disaster, instead of a slow-burn one >

Thanks for that graphic bigchoc

Just popped up on BBC news feed Brexit Talks in Endgame: says Theresa May

God I’m nervous.

Corbyn may have retired by then

Bloody Corbyn. I lurch between being pissed off with him and forgetting he exists, useless git.

Brexit unicorn

twitter.com/j_amesp/status/1062094742769537024?s=21

What happened to the thread anent Scots? Mumsnet deleted, but I don't know why. prettybird?

It's the endgame of the UK. The final few months of civility.

Jo Johnson popping up all over the place. Not mincing his words.
Perhaps someone should give him a regular column?

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-may-accused-of-calculated-deceit-of-the-british-public-over-brexit-a3987516.html%3famp

www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/the-way-out-of-this-shambles-is-a-peoples-vote-g8m6qdzh8

No idea why durgha - last time I looked at it I remember thinking his remarkably civilised it was, with articulate explanations from people (like you - and other names that I didn't recognise) as to why they felt the way that they did.

When I go back through to the kitchen, I might still have it open on my laptop with some posts that I hadn't read yet. But I'm not promising anything.

There was a recent thread in Secondary Education which tangentially discussed the difference between Scotland and England (pointing out that there wasn't a UK system) which also inexplicably went poof

Glad I am not living there now with a totally inept Government at the helm. God knows what Scotland thinks and there is NI (only recently discovered as part of UK lol). Wales seems ok or does it?

Total Shitstorm that no one wants apart from a small cohort in the Tory Party.

But anyway, they will eat themselves up for breakfast. And the rest of us will gain nothing.

Sounds awful to me. Not one positive vibe coming out so far. Why am I surprised.

pretty, durgha The MN deletion message:

"we think the thread was not started with the best intentions"

means they've decided the OP intended to be goady

I agree - all his / her remarks showed nasty anti-Scots feeling and were shit-stirring
It's a shame that the thread had a lot of useful posts too, but the nastiness of the OP and some others probably outweighed this for MN.

It's the endgame of the UK. The final few months of civility

The S*n's reporting that they are 'triggering' payments for the Crash out preparations.

The normally discreet Gary Gibbon, said that the government will have to be publicly preparing for the crash out, but they:

"Don't want to scare the public."

That Standard link also has this:

The four “floating” Cabinet ministers whose verdict will be crucial if a deal is reached - Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid, Michael Gove and Dominic Raab - were keeping their powder dry.
< Raab too ? >

But a source close to one of them predicted that all four would reluctantly fall into line behind Mrs May because “frankly, there haven’t been enough no-deal preparations to prove an alternative”

< since when did reality matter to Brexiters ? >

Not sure which government bofsy is referring to

If it's the Westmimster government, I wholeheartedly agree.

If it's the Scottish government, I'm much happier having a government run by Nicola Sturgeon than any other politician around. At least they're still trying to think not just of the country that they represent but of the interests of the UK as a whole - despite the fact that Brexit might bring about Scottish independence more quickly in the resulting chaos.

March will be fairly nuts next year with panic buying also with a no deal. God, I'm dreading 2019.

@prettybird

Well of course I am referring to the Westminster Government. Scotland, Wales and NI do not seem to have a say do they apart from what is said down there really? Please correct me if I am wrong.

That is despite all the optics of Regional Assemblies and so on. Although I do realise that NI has not has an Assembly for yonks either!

I call it the DK now, the Divided Kingdom. So awfully sad, but there we are now.

^Pretty you'd have a similar problem with the Scottish border and customs checks etc with Scottish independence. It'd be a shit show similar to Brexit and the 2 hits of Brexit and Independenve would finish Scotland off. I say that as a Scot too.

Your post wasn't clear to me bofsy - forgive me for being a bit touchy (especially after the AIBU thread) Mea culpa Thank you for clarifying

I agree GD12 - but if we're going to have to thole a hard border, it might as well be one that we have control of at Gretna/Coldstream rather than Dover and for us to have the support of the EU (and/or the Nordic nations). We could re-invigorate Rosyth and the West Coast ports for trade direct with the EU

Not suggesting it would be easy - but at least we might escape the disaster capitalists.

It's also why I would still prefer the UK not to leave the EU and for Scotland to take the longer route to independence (even though my dad, who is 81, wants to see independence before he dies but his aunt did live to 102 )

@prettybird,

No worries at all, it is just a discussion. I don't have any answers, I fkn wish I did though!

This was the latest I had on my PC. Nothing beyond the normal MN disagreements.

I've seen a lot worse.

Sadly this Brexit thing has opened up so many issues that we though were solved.

Very sad that it has come to this.