Reasons to remain and reasons to leave

[MyNameIsArthur]

I am hoping this thread can be constructive, respectful and insult free on both sides and to be informative.

I would like to hear everyone's views on why they think it important to remain or leave. I want to hear what the positives and negatives are for remain or leave, in the short, medium and long term in your opinion.

Also, if leave will definitely happen, then what do you think would be the best deal we should try for? What future relationship would you like with the EU?

Bearbehind fair point, apologies Megan

I'm a big believer in history and Europe's is one of war, over many centuries.

Less than 25 years ago, central Europe saw 10s of 1000s of deaths and ethnic cleansing, Yugoslavia wasn't in the EU & NATO did not prevent it, it was stopped primarily by the Americans.

Being in the EU and building bridges through trade and cultural exchange can make war less likely and of course it gives a forum of dialogue for argument, it was the principal reason for its formation.

No one lives in a parallel universe so we don't know if the EEC/EU has stopped another European war, however, its not a chance we should be taking.

I think that is the most important reason to stay, we are a leading european power and should not be turning our backs on Europe.

Please try to accept that not everyone is an extreme leaver, some of us were moderate or even ambivalent leavers and our views are also valid.

I realise I wrote this wrong, it should have read Remainer wherever I wrote leaver.

megan aren't your sausages burning?

If you haven't got time to explain your comment about how the UK joining the Euro is inevitable then you look more than a bit foolish by continuing to post.

Sausages eaten now thanks for asking Bear.

I didn't say "inevitable", I think I said that the pressure would become greater. Which I believe to be true. However, as I have tried to clarify many times, I did actually vote Remain basing my decision on what I thought were more likely to be immediate tangible effects.
Irrespective of how I voted, I do think that more people would feel encouraged to join the debate, and that could only be helpful, if we could keep the board free of cheap sarcasm and mild abuse.

megan I know you voted Remain.

What irritates me is your 'devils advocate' bit that it's based on nonsense even you can't explain.

If you think we'd end up joining the Euro, tell us why.

I would love more people to join the debate from Leave point of view. But they give impressionistic twaddle that is not substantiated by any fact or even reasonable supposition. And then flounce off saying we are all mean. In the spirit of avoiding childish name calling I will not say fucking snowflakes.

There has never been any prevention against allowing lots of immigrants in from India

I know, I’m assuming the collapse of the UK tech sector may focus minds and encourage Govt to open up a bit more! As I say, somebody will have to do the work, and there aren’t enough home-grown skilled workers so that means immigrants of one flavour or another. In roughly similar numbers to currently.

And yes it will take time, I was imagining that this refocusing in the Commonwealth would take 10-20years. The economy will obviously take a hit in the meantime.

Is it better than having EU migrants? Not particularly. Is that what the majority of Bretixeers envisaged when they voted Leave? Probably not. Is it the only potential outcome of Brexit that doesn’t make me want to build a fallout shelter and hide until 2020? Yes.

It's not "devil's advocate". It's that I think there needs to be some balance on these boards. Clearly the result was finely balanced, so there are arguments on either side. Many people didn't know how to vote, it just wasn't clear even to intelligent people who tried very hard to weigh the pros and cons.
This board sometimes sound like a place people come to work through their PTSD caused by the Leave vote. I get that, but it's not conducive to reasonable debate.

I really don't think it's nonsense. I raised on a previous thread my concerns about Italy, Greece, Target 2. These aren't simple questions, even amongst experts there is no real consensus on how these issues are to be resolved. But there is a broad view that the Euro will remain extremely vulnerable until it is one country politically. Only when there is agreement that wealth should flow freely from the wealthier parts of the "country" to the poorer will that vulnerability disappear. This is why I believe that the EU does have to push for ever closer union. If anything, I think we may have been holding them back from that, but that had we stayed, the vulnerability of the currency whenever the next crisis occurs would have forced the EU to apply that pressure.

Thank you for actually responding no megan but it's still not at all clear why the UK would have joined the Euro.

We were / are one of the most influential countries in the EU and we'd opted out of it.

Why would that have changed?

And aside from anything else, were not far off parity with the Euro so how big a deal would it be anyway?

Sterling could well dip below the Euro on No Deal Brexit.

If the euro is this ex.vulnerable currency, why has it risen consistently against Sterling over the last 19 years? what does that say about the £ ?
Where-as against the USD the E has, overall, kept its value.

The euro is the Worlds 2nd most traded currency, ahead of the Yen and double that of the £

Extremely vulnerable...... perhaps not, but that isn't going to get reported in the UK MSM.

I would agree that the EU is vulnerable, but it has about 9 times the population of the UK and GDP is around a quarter of the global economy.
All of it has been subjected to wars over the years between neighbours and a 'compromise' of becoming an integrated society with reasonably strong bonds at political and financial level is one way to ensure it is as stable as possible. Expanding the Eurozone to the east was I believe encouraged by UK ministers as they are being threatened by Russia and having been under Russian rule in the past, they would prefer a bit of what the EU has.
Industry and employment are widely different across the Eurozone, partly due to natural resources and partly the climate/traditional occupations. Olive groves won't grow in Germany and Greece is not endowed with iron ore. They may fancy growing oranges in Scotland but climate change has a few more years to go before that is realistic.

I think I said that the EU would push for ever closer union (although I did write it quite quickly). I don't necessarily think we would be forced to join, so that's not the problem. Either the Euro will break up (because in its current construct it is very vulnerable to any crisis) in which case it would be better for us to be as far removed from that as possible when it happens. Or alternately, closer political union will make it less vulnerable and it won't break up. But that process of pushing towards political union is likely to be fraught, probably not possible at the moment given the rise of the AfD in Germany. Which leaves us with the first situation - vulnerable currency, best to be far away from it.
The fact that we are close to parity has nothing at all to do with whether it's a good idea or not. When currencies joined the ERM, they obviously didn't join at parity.

I don't necessarily think we would be forced to join, so that's not the problem.

Careful you don't run yourself over whilst back tracking there megan

Yes, France and Germany are virtually the same country now . Makes no sense @MeganBacon

I think that the pressure to become part of the EURO would, over time, have become greater.
Yes you are right Bear, I did say this. I was obviously being very careless in the earlier part of this thread.
I hope I've clarified the issue to your satisfaction now though?

Yes, France and Germany are virtually the same country now . Makes no sense @MeganBacon**
What?

Not clarified it at all megan but don't worry about it.

Further political union was an opt out for the UK, as was joining the Euro.
Far right groups are stamping around all over the place but there should be a bit of comfort that having been trashed by Hitler in WW2, which is just in survivors memories no one in the EU wants that to return. Even AfD don't want to leave the EU.
There is a MASSIVE worldwide problem in that there is not enough 'productive' work for all and there needs to be a way found to even out the difference between those who work all hours and those with no work.Angry young men (typically) with far right leanings probably aren't skilled technicians, healthcare workers or artists in their 'day job'.

{Yes, France and Germany are virtually the same country now}
Impossible, Germans can't manage the 'Gallic shrug'.

Page 3 and I see bearbehind has already returned to bully and deride...

Why is the Euro about to collapse? Germany is the backstop and they are a world economic super power.

If anything its the £ that is vulnerable right now.

Brexit is a great opportunity for the EU to look to on-shore jobs from the UK to Southern and Eastern europe.

@MeganBacon - this closer political union would require France and Germany to virtually merge. Which doesn't look like it is going to happen any time soon. Unless they are ahead of this and are virtually the same country now.