Reasons to remain and reasons to leave

[MyNameIsArthur]

I am hoping this thread can be constructive, respectful and insult free on both sides and to be informative.

I would like to hear everyone's views on why they think it important to remain or leave. I want to hear what the positives and negatives are for remain or leave, in the short, medium and long term in your opinion.

Also, if leave will definitely happen, then what do you think would be the best deal we should try for? What future relationship would you like with the EU?

Look in your fridge , right now. How much of what is in there is from the EU. Or your store cupboard.
I assume you looked for value and quality with a bit of "buy British " to make you feel better.
Do you honestly think that you can get the same stuff for a similar price in May/June 2019 or beyond? And if it's going to be from the UK, how long will it take to get into the shops for you to buy it? Will it be the same kind of price? Are your wages likely to go up to match any price increase.
And stuff from further afield which we will allegedly allow in with zero tariffs so the seller will absorb the cost of getting it here. Really? And, by the way, will we be able to export our stuff to that country with zero tariffs on imports there?
Get real. Do it now.

... and telling people that 'the country is open for business' as May did, won't make them disbelieve the evidence of their own eyes.

In the unlikely event all of Japan's trading partners agree with Japan and welcome us in with open arms, how long will that take. Spoiler alert: it took Japan 10 years to get a trade deal with the EU.

If you are keen to buy British, look in your wardrobe too, to see where your clothes come from. I have a DH who never throws anything away if he can avoid it, so since he has 40 year old ties plus some newish ones in his wardrobe, I looked to see where they came from. 40 years ago: nearly all made in the UK, one or two Italian. Now, still one or two Italian, others from all over the place - Bangladesh, Turkey, Sri Lanka, India, none from the UK. These are all chain or department store offerings.
M & S used to have a policy of only stocking British Made stuff - this policy went years ago.

Reasons to leave:

1. The parasitic power that London has, sucking a disproportionate number of high performers into finance jobs rather than them moving elsewhere and contributing to a variety of industries, will be diminished as London as a financial centre diminishes. Which will be a result of Brexit.

1. if there is a reduction in immigration, the UK will...eventually...be forced to reorganise its education and training facilities in order to provide he workers that are actually needed by UK businesses, along with the requisite skills. Knock on effects would hopefully include better recognition if teaching skills and a related increase in pay and better conditions, a recognition that Uni degrees are all well and good but not if you are turning out thousands of graduates in areas that aren’t needed, and (pie in the sky hope) better vocational training.

1. Increased focus on our own political system, with politicians starting once again to be held to account for their failings instead of always applying the bait and switch tactic of ‘look, over there, it’s the EUs fault’.

Each of the above will take around 15-20 years to come to fruition.

I won’t list reasons to stay, because everyone else seems to have covered them off already.

Well put @Chocolala . With lots of caveats and a longer time frame than Leave supporters usually give.
I wonder how much of that could be achieved in the same space of time without committing political suicide. I also doubt that immigration would be reduced over the time frame.

Can agree with point 2, IF migration falls......

Point 1 London’s thriving economy generates a £26.5bn surplus that is recycled by the government to provide financial help to Britain’s less well-off regions, according to an official breakdown of the public finances

kill the golden goose and all that!!!

Point 3 Can anyone name something significant where our failings have been blamed on the EU?

On the Golden Goose point - I’ve read at the weekend an interesting thing about how London’s contribution is at the expense of the regions. Beyond a certain point, each pound that it makes for the UK is made at the expense of a pound that would be made elsewhere in the UK if London weren’t so bloated.

So yes, the existing golden goose will get thinner (though won’t die) but apparently this will mean the silver gooses elsewhere will then thrive, leading to a redistribution if resources and wealth around the country, and meaning all our eggs (to continue the analogy) are not in the one smoggy basket.

We will be able to buy duty free goods when we travel to the EU which is a definite plus point.

On point 3 - immigration and it’s supposed effects.

Politicians in the UK have spent decades wringing their hands in mock sympathy as various groups of citizens complain about immigration and the ‘pressure’ those immigrants put on resources. ‘Sorry guys’ they said ‘it’s that pesky free movement’. They never once admitted that we needed to immigrants, nor did they admit that things would have been far better if anyone in the UK government had bothered to invest in services, or taken 5 minutes to look at life outside London.

*geese

Yep i can see that argument.
However! as these people didn't bring wealth to the regions pre the 1990s, why would they now?
Paris hasn't a huge FS yet France has plenty of poorer regions, which is why PSA will close Vauxhall and Airbus will relocate, more losses for the regions.

I'm not sure that reducing the city in the hope that folk will relocate/stay in the regions and start up businesses is a wise strategy, a bit like giving the rich tax cuts and the wealth will trickle down.

I just don't see the evidence for this.

Point 3..... Immigration has benefited the UK, we ve a net loss around 109k people in the uk every year (birth/death/retirement rates.

We need immigration and predominately white christian europeans integrate far more easily into the UK, than non white non christian, like it or not.

Immigration isn't going to be cut, the Gov has already told us this.

The idea of distributing wealth a bit more evenly is 'socialist' but the Labour camp can't be trusted to get it right either.
The country will have to largely reinvent itself. Old style heavy industry is out, as China and India can do it better and cheaper.
Suffice to sat, ALL of these issues are UK governments responsibility
and they should have started at the point where large scale manufacturing went off to India and elsewhere many many years ago.
The vast wealth the UK had in the 'glory' days, some 150 years ago has been squandered and it will take some radical new thinking to make a decent job of recovery. Most of what has been suggested is just 'tinkering' with the edges.

I totally agree that immigration is beneficial. I’m all for it. I just use it as an example of the UK govt blaming the EU for things.

I also doubt that there will be proper redistribution of wealth. Not because the opportunity isn’t there, but because short of a full on revolution the people in charge aren’t going to allow it.

And I include labour in that.

Governments since the war at least have had the opportunity to get it right and haven't so why start now, especially as another world financial crash is predicted.

I don't have much at all but if someone tried to redistribute my "wealth" I would kick them in the nuts. Apologies for lowering the tone.

Switzerland have had 3 referendums in the past and they declined to join the EU and they're doing quiet well as well as Norway. Maybe we should look to see how've they done it and take baby steps into recovery

As someone has pointed out, Switzerland and Norway are very different from the UK.

I'm fascinated by how the Leaver rhetoric has shifted from 'there'll be no downsides' to 'we'll take baby steps into recovery' –and of course be 'allowed' to scavenge in dumps.

Well, this would be good, but the economist Minford gleefully talked about our farming and industry being destroyed, and this appears to be what the hard right want if we crash out. That would make this aspiration impossible. I've no idea what you're talking about.

Leaving the EU is what my Gran used to say is "throwing the baby out with the bath water"

No-one ever, not on here, not in Parliament, not even down the pub! has ever given any sound economic reason to quit.

So, the Japanese PM is saying we can join TPP when there is no CU with the EU... so we are swapping one dictate from Brussels in which we have a powerful voice to one from Japan, where we have none.

....and we should remember, its always about the economy, because with no money, life is bl00dy hard.

FWIW, if it wasn't crystal clear from my previous post, I'm firmly in the Remain camp. I suspect Brexit is going to be an unmitigated shitshow & we should all be very worried. I was merely trying to find a couple of grains of potential positivity amongst all the forthcoming crap.

Reasons to remain:
The freedom to study, work, run a buisness, fall in love, retire in 27 different countries
The ability to attract the best scientists, students, doctors, nurses and a ton of other workers we couldn't live without

As an aside, I hear the point that was made up-thread by the lady with a sausage in the oven (Megan?). A currency that is shared by countries with stronger and weaker economies is always going to be vulnerable. I am not sure however, that being outside of the EU would protect the UK from the effects of a collapse of the euro.

@jasjas1973
....and we should remember, its always about the economy, because with no money, life is bl00dy hard

This can not be emphasised enough. While money is not everything, the health of an economy is actually a crude measure of population happiness and well-being as well as wealth. Below a certain level, lack of wealth leads to serious unhappiness.