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Brexit
Original poster

Reasons to remain and reasons to leave

404 replies

MyNameIsArthur · 07/10/2018 16:10

I am hoping this thread can be constructive, respectful and insult free on both sides and to be informative.

I would like to hear everyone's views on why they think it important to remain or leave. I want to hear what the positives and negatives are for remain or leave, in the short, medium and long term in your opinion.

Also, if leave will definitely happen, then what do you think would be the best deal we should try for? What future relationship would you like with the EU?

OP posts:
jasjas1973 · 12/10/2018 21:55

There is no Parliamentary majority for that, it will be a far more basic deal, covering the 21 month transition period only and then we ll be back to where we are now.....joy!

This is the problem Arthur, you wanted to leave the EU, without to much thought into the "how" and look what is/will happen to this Great country of ours?

Original poster
MyNameIsArthur · 12/10/2018 22:03

I believed that our Government would negotiate a reasonable deal if we were to leave.

OP posts:
Peregrina · 12/10/2018 22:46

A Norway type deal would align with the letter of the Referendum result, because Norway isn't in the EU. We weren't asked if we wanted to leave the EEA.

Does it deal with the spirit of the result? You are then back to the question of what did Leavers vote for? May did not get the mandate she sought in last year's election, but it's still not wholly valid to assume that voters were rejecting her vision of a Hard Brexit, because people vote for many issues. In e.g. the Witney by-election caused when Cameron resigned, closure of a local Surgery was the big issue for many of the electorate.

jasjas1973 · 12/10/2018 23:07

I believed that our Government would negotiate a reasonable deal if we were to leave

Why on earth would you believe that?

twofingerstoEverything · 12/10/2018 23:09

I believed that our Government would negotiate a reasonable deal if we were to leave.

Why? Why would anyone believe that. You only had to look at the government (and the opposition for that matter) to know that wasn't going to happen. There was no plan. You voted for some non-specific pie-in-the-sky and hoped a bunch of incompetents would 'negotiate a reasonable deal'. Nice one.

Talkstotrees · 13/10/2018 06:14

Have a read of this speech Arthur - an excellent assessment of where we are, how we got here and what might happen (it’s long!)

share.trin.cam.ac.uk/sites/public/Comms/Rogers_brexit_as_revolution.pdf

Talkstotrees · 13/10/2018 06:17

And here’s the latest press release from the UK’s Food and Drinks Federation. Business is getting more than a bit pissed off with the Govt.

www.fdf.org.uk/news.aspx?article=8069&utm_medium=social-media&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=press-release&utm_content=no-deal-brexit

Peregrina · 13/10/2018 09:56

I have some sympathy for Arthur's view. At the very least, before immediately throwing in the towel, Cameron should have gone back to his Tory MPs and asked if they wanted him to carry on.
I couldn't see why he needed to rush the vote anyway. The Manifesto said it had to be held sometime before the end of 2017, so he held it about a year earlier. Had he delayed, he would have had time to enact another Manifesto commitment of enfranchising those overseas voters who had been away for more than 15 years. Not that it necessarily follows that they would have all voted Remain, but I think it could have swung it. It wouldn't have shut the extreme right up, but that really was his issue, not one for the whole country to solve.

Bearbehind · 13/10/2018 11:42

peregrina the problem is, DC never thought Remain would lose so would never have done any of the above.

And the reality is Leave would never have won if voters had actually based their choice to the subject at hand. What pushed Leave over the line were the protest votes that had nothing to do with the EU.

Peregrina · 13/10/2018 12:00

Basically, he carried on like the 'essay crisis' PM he always was.
Two things about him would make me laugh, if what he has done didn't have such serious consequences:

  1. He wanted to be PM because he thought he'd be good at it. He will go down in history as a total failure, in the mould of Lord North, Chamberlain and Eden.
  2. His telling Jeremy Corbyn to smarten himself up, and then said 'Go man' i.e. resign. Instead, Corbyn somehow manages to cling on, and had a good election last year.
jasjas1973 · 13/10/2018 16:36

A 19yo who thinks its a laff to stick his c0ck in a dead pig is hardly PM - in the making - material.

But i think DC will be forgotten by history, however, TM will go down as the most disastrous PM we ve ever had, she didn't bin Brexit, she lost her commons majority in a needless GE, given us a series of impact warnings worthy of a war footing, yet hasn't heeded any of them! and still soldiers on with the Will of the People and The National interest...

as if the two are somehow intrinsically linked.

indistinct · 13/10/2018 17:41

@scorpio32
Firstly thank you for engaging and articulating your stance. I’m trying to understand your viewpoint and I think it might be summarised as “UK people are in dire situation. EU failed to protect UK from this and have at least partially caused it through 4 freedoms with FOC and FOM being most damaging. Brexit can’t worsen situation substantially and EU less likely to have UK citizen interests at heart.”

Hopefully fair reflection of your views but it can’t go unchallenged. Most people of working age in UK are gainfully employed and many jobs are reasonably paid. Not trying to ignore ZHCs, underemployment and non-claimers but there is much to lose for this group and their dependents and they are the majority.

Cross-border JIT manufacturers and EU importers/exporters will be damaged by no-deal or Canada-deal. These operations employ 100,000s - the predicted damage is not opinion/speculation but highly probable.

How can Brexit justify the loss of jobs to the affected families? Where’s the upside that will address the points you raise? FOM has been shown to be net positive for UK finances. FOC isn’t the cause of wholesale tax avoidance by multinationals and most EU states not beneficiaries. EU appears to be one of few institutions attempting to curb this behaviour (eg Apple Ireland).

Too many points to make but in short Brexit risks an ‘80s level economic earthquake for no clear gain. Things can and will get much worse if it’s not softened or reversed.

indistinct · 13/10/2018 19:01

@MyNameIsArthur
think the only deal that can be done before March next year is a Norway type deal which would solve the Northern Ireland border issue. It would not align with the referendum result but at least it would prevent any expected chaos in March and over time we could try and negotiate better terms

Partially agree. Norway+ (EEA/EFTA+CU) can be done quickly and would avoid the worst economic consequences and NI border issue. Personally I think this aligns with referendum result in spirit + letter as we’re out EU and many talked of being like Norway or Switzerland in ref campaign. See no sign of EU offering anything much different from what’s currently on offer. Our only chance of a good deal was thrown away when A50 triggered. Our best chance of retrieving our lost position is in revoking A50.

frumpety · 13/10/2018 20:40

Arthur I still don't think Brexit in any shape or form will happen. It happening would cause far too much harm to the population of the UK and more importantly to the Conservative Party. How they get out of the current predicament remains ( pardon the pun ) to be seen Smile

Original poster
MyNameIsArthur · 13/10/2018 21:36

Reading TalktoTrees linked articles are rather depressing and worrying. Unless our Govt can agree something soon, a new referendum should take place or the govt should revoke article 50 because we are not prepared for this

OP posts:
indistinct · 14/10/2018 08:52

@MyNameIsArthur
Agree but that may/will not happen without pressure from public. Urge you to write to MP, march on 20th Oct, help persuade others, etc.

Bearbehind · 14/10/2018 09:03

Unless our Govt can agree something soon, a new referendum should take place or the govt should revoke article 50 because we are not prepared for this

OP, you say that like it’s some great revelation and that now you’ve decreed it it must happen.

I guess I should be pleased that your clearly a Leaver who is beginning to question things but I find your posts odd.

Peregrina · 14/10/2018 09:34

I think that it's good a Leaver is saying things like there should be another Referendum. At the moment the politicians are hiding behind 'the will of the people' ignoring the almost half of people who didn't vote to Leave. If MPs start getting postbags full of letters saying 'I voted leave and we need another referendum.', then that argument begins to fall flat.

indistinct · 14/10/2018 10:40

@Peregrina
Thoroughly agree - the only way to change the Brexit path is through engagement, discussion and persuasion. While some may profess adamant support for Brexit, many are not so certain and should be encouraged to look at the issue afresh.

Bearbehind · 14/10/2018 10:59

I agree peregrina. I just find the OP's manner quite odd.

It's like he thinks we won't notice he's a Leaver if he frames his posts as he does.

I'm all for Leavers coming forward and admitting this isn't what they wanted.

AlexaShutUp · 14/10/2018 11:08

I think it's a positive thing that some leave voters are open-minded enough to suggest that another referendum might be necessary. Feelings run so high on this issue that it's easy to see how people become entrenched in their positions.

I will admit that I find it very difficult not to blame those who voted leave for the mess that we're now in. Bizarrely, I find it easier to accept the position of those who wanted to leave "through hell or high water" than that of the leave voters who blindly assumed that it would all be ok because the government would negotiate a reasonable deal. If only they had done their research properly, they would have realised that a workable deal was never going to happen, and perhaps we'd never have got into this horrible situation. However, I have to keep reminding myself that such anger is pointless. Ultimately, those who want the best thing for the country's future (as opposed to the hell or high water brigade) are all on the same side.

If some leave voters are now realising that their vote was based on an entirely false premise (i.e. the idea that we could actually have a Brexit that was good for Britain), then those of us on the Remain side need to ditch our anger and resentment, and work with those leave voters to try to find a way out of the dreadful mess that we're in.

Bearbehind · 14/10/2018 11:13

You are completely right alexa and if the OP outright states he was a Leaver then I will profusely apologise for my comments - I'm just perplexed by this weird posting style whereby he pretends to sit on the fence but he's blatantly not a Remainer.

AlexaShutUp · 14/10/2018 11:16

Bear, I think the OP said further up the thread that he/she voted leave, based on the assumption that the government would negotiate a good deal.

Bearbehind · 14/10/2018 11:18

They didn't actually say they voted Leave - it was very carefully worded - that's what I mean.

AlexaShutUp · 14/10/2018 12:13

Did you see this post, Bear? From the OP at 11pm on 10th October.

I voted to leave. However I voted under the assumption that David Cameron would lead us through this, research would be done, our Government would organise cross party discussions on how to go about Brexit, very skilled researchers, negotiators, planners would be employed to bring about a good relationship with the EU after we leave with reasonable terms. I am concerned with how this has panned out since the referendum and feel let down by our Government and politicians and yes I am worried now about what will happen.