Reasons to remain and reasons to leave

[MyNameIsArthur]

I am hoping this thread can be constructive, respectful and insult free on both sides and to be informative.

I would like to hear everyone's views on why they think it important to remain or leave. I want to hear what the positives and negatives are for remain or leave, in the short, medium and long term in your opinion.

Also, if leave will definitely happen, then what do you think would be the best deal we should try for? What future relationship would you like with the EU?

You’re lapsing into faith based politics like the rest of the Leavers. Disappointing.

No Deal, if we have no deal, will be a disaster. It’s not an opinion, it’s an inevitable consequence of suddenly having no international agreements and treaties. Supply chains will stop. The poor will bear the brunt.

It’s interesting that you are against tactical voting in principle because it seems to me that’s exactly what you’ve done by voting Leave. You have no idea what you have voted for, by your own admission, but you’re very clear what you’re voting against.

Nah, the Commonwealth is dead as a dodo, once the Queen passes on, it will go the same way, we are no longer the big fish in that pond.

Look how the Nigerian and Kenyan leaders poked fun at May.

The new tax avoidance directive coming in just after we leave, is a step forward in the fight against greed.

That movement of capital allows easy investment TATA, BMW etc etc of course also allows Russian corrupt money too but movement of capital will continue, Londons FS demands it, needs firm regulation, which of course we are free to do right now.... which country has opposed EU moves on this? mmmmmm let me think! lol!

More Reasons to Remain

@SkyNewsBreak
Government papers say Britons could be barred from accessing their accounts for Netflix, Spotify and other online entertainment while travelling to EU member states in the event of a no-deal Brexit

The Government's latest contingency papers say the Eurostar would not run subject to multi-lateral arrangements being negotiated between the UK, France and Belgium in the event of a no-deal Brexit

Janet, without having a crystal ball there has to be an element of faith, I agree, but I don't share the doom and gloom of your predictions. I don't think it will be a catastrophe, and I don't think supply chains will stop. I do agree that the poor will bear the grunt, but they always do whenever things go bad. It's been happening since 2008, (if not since the beginning of time)

You're right to call me out on my hypocrisy though, but I can't take it back (nor am I going to change my opinion about Brexit)

Reason to leave: the majority (albeit slim) voted to leave.

Reason to stay: to placate the remainder who did not vote to leave.

Reasons to Leave
Horse racing will end.
Presume it will have an impact on all horse owners one way or another?
www.gov.uk/government/publications/taking-horses-abroad-if-theres-no-brexit-deal--2/taking-horses-abroad-if-theres-no-brexit-deal

I hope you’re right, Scorpio, really I do, but all the evidence points to everything stopping in the event of a no deal.

It’s not a prediction, any more than saying that you’ll get fined for running a red light in front of a police car is a prediction. It’s a highly likely consequence.

If we have no deal there will definitely be catastrophic medicines shortages, because there are already serious ones now. If we enter a trade agreement with the USA the NHS will almost certainly be annihilated.

I can't see AstraZeneca, Bayer or any of the others walking away from the UK market. There may be tariffs (but probably not - tariffs may be excluded for drugs as per the WTO rules)

I don't see why there are shortages now or in the foreseeable future, although I do see some scaremongering going on. I just choose to ignore it.

That's fine Scorpio if you are not in need of a secure and sustained supply of medication from EU member states. Best hope that Type 1 Diabetes is not in your future.

The Commons Select Committee report on the impact of a no-deal Brexit disagrees with you.

publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmbeis/382/38205.htm

I don't know what the situation with regards for the availability of medicine for Diabetes or anything else. If there is a shortage of one or more drugs, I would want to know why, certainly before blaming Brexit.

The bottom line is that even a no-deal Brexit will not have a significant impact on the pharmaceutical sector, as per the report linked to above.

Apart from not having any medicine, food, rights or heating..................

The cost of EU membership of €105.20 per person per year is less than the combined cost of travel health insurance (not currently necessary due to EHIC card) and roaming charges (currently none in the EU) for a 2-week holiday to Ibiza.

I think that might be another reason to remain?

Seriously? You would accept free movement of people, capital, goods and services, which benefit companies dramatically and make the rich richer at our expense as long as you don't have to pay for health insurance when you nip over to Ibiza for a couple of weeks?

Each to their own, I guess.

75p a week for food, peace in Ireland, medicine, FOM for us and our kids, accessing the internet easily, everywhere, Erasmus, power and human rights seems cheap to me.

Another reason to Remain:
It costs less than the price of 2 kit kats a week.
Or a 6 pack of Tesco's apples.

So, extrapolating your post a little, you're implying that when we leave the EU we won't have any food or medicine, war will break out in Ireland, the internet will disappear and we will all become enslaved.

That's a bit more serious than the catastrophes that other people are predicting.

Or to look at it another way, if we leave the EU I get 2 free kit kats a week.

I love kit kats.

And on that trivial note, I'm off.

I hope I explained clearly my reasons for voting to leave, but if not, well, at least I tried. I know that I'm never going to change your minds, and frankly, I be disappointed if I managed it.

Did you actually read that link, and do you know anything at all about the fragility of medicines supply chains?

No, I thought not.

@scorpio32

You could change my mind, if the facts change, i change my view.

However, the paper you linked to is 18 months old and the latest technical papers of a no deal, are far more serious and come from Raab a well known leave supporter.

He is banking on a good deal, i hope he is correct.

Its good to have a brexiteer who engages.

Aside, its shocking that Arron Banks an unelected businessman is funding a campaign to sack pro remain MPs.....so much for democracy in this new dawn

For someone who wants a better socialist future Scorpio for you and your fellow UK people you seem somewhat cavalier about all our welfare - medical, food, security, travel etc - ref the link provided above and the UK Gov't no brexit consequences papers for a start,

Thanks go to @scorpio32 - someone with some arguments (even though I don't agree). It's certainly a nice change to hear some opposing views on here. It still seems that, for leavers especially, it's pretty much all about feelings, not reasons, which is why rational, factual debate can't really happen.

Can I ask how confident you feel that we will get a deal with the EU? Or do you feel we are likely to leave without a deal? I would prefer to leave with a Norway type deal than no deal at all. If no deal is likely then surely we need a second referendum, if there is a chance of it being catastrophic if we leave

It all depends on how many times the UK will blink.

The EU has some excellent deals on the table

it just depends on which one the UK chooses

I believe there will be a deal of sorts or no-brexit/2nd vote/GE.

I think the only deal that can be done before March next year is a Norway type deal which would solve the Northern Ireland border issue. It would not align with the referendum result but at least it would prevent any expected chaos in March and over time we could try and negotiate better terms