Just how bad is it going to be? No scaremongering.

[BoyMeetsWorld]

I'm very very worried as, I'm sure, are a lot of people.

Please can we have a thread with no scaremongering or speculation where we objectively look at just how bad it is likely to be if No Deal happens which Ms May seems set upon. For those of us left here with no escape route to live anywhere else...those of us who aren't currently in poverty but by no means rich, just middle earners with kids.

What is the most realistic situation we can expect to manage the horror stories and prepare properly? I'd like to try and cover all aspects of daily life which are likely to be impacted in a substantial way.

You've framed the question in the negative though OP.

"How BAD is it going to be?" suggests that you want the bad news.

You can't then say you want realistic interpretations of the way it will turn out....and no scaremongering.

Because it's all speculation anyway.

No one knows what will happen or how 'bad' it will be in the event of a no deal. Or what will happen with a deal tbh.

Personally I'm financially preparing myself (well the best I can) for a worst case scenario. I consider a worst case to be a 'crash' similar to 2008.

It all depends on whether whoever is in government gets a deal or not, and the terms of it.
Nobody really knows as this hasn't been tried before.
I would expect normal 'domestic' stuff to happen, water, electricity, gas and whatever still fine.
A bit of preparation, having a few extra bits in the cupboard might be a good idea, stuff you would normally use and will keep.
If there were any massive problems, schools or workplaces may close for a few days.
60 Million people can't suddenly do 'nothing' for more than a handful of days but exactly what happens all depends.

Read the government papers. There is also more complete set issued by the EU.

No deal would be extremely disruptive.

It won’t be bad.

The sun will still rise, people will still get up, make a cup of tea and go to work.

Fair point, @Ajas. I didn't intend to frame it in the negative. It's more a case of what do we REALLY think is going to happen if we strip the horror stories away (& I've been one of the worst for running around as if the sky is falling so I'm definitely not accusing anyone of scaremongering intentionally...I know a lot of people are worried and panicking). I'm interested in whether people honestly think we are about to experience hell on earth or what is the scenario likely to be. Speculation, yes. But there must surely be some more likely outcomes than others. And I'm sure there are more knowledgeable people than me out there about economics, social services, food, travel and medicine provisions etc....

I think the economy will just fail bit by bit year by year . Each year several hospitals will cut their services, firms will close or relocate and so on.

If you look on the Westminsterenders thread there is a lot of detailed references to government papers and so on.
As a rough guide, everything will get more expensive eventually.
With the likelihood of people stockpiling the government figures may look good before March but I THINK that decline will be sharper after that. It would be sensible to sort out medications if you or family need anything special.
There is so much riding on a deal and the Gov are still playing silly buggers so it is impossible to say with certainty. The whole country will be affected so there is some safety in numbers but Monday 2nd April (?) might be different to what you may have in mind now.
Keep calm with your eyes and ears open!

I think the economy will just fail bit by bit year by year . Each year several hospitals will cut their services, firms will close or relocate and so on.

I have been watching the TV series Back in time for the factory where they do a re-enactment of social history. They are featuring women workers in a garment factory. They started the series in the 1960s when everything was swinging. We are now into the 1970s, when we joined the EEC, and things are getting sticky. Next week it's the 1980s and redundancies.
The EEC/EC/EU has been so good for British manufacturing.

As a rough guide, everything will get more expensive eventually.

Oh, yes, that happened too in the 1970s.

So the bit I'm trying to get my head around without panicking is...if everything is going to get a lot more expensive...are we going to be ok? Will it just be a case of tighten the belts and expect not to be able to get any luxuries on the shopping...or are the majority of us going to find ourselves unable to afford to run our cars, keep our homes etc?

Well, we don't know, do we? So don't say 'no scaremongering' because it's all conjecture. The good pro-brexit shite is just as much conjecture as the realistic scaremongering ideas. Just because you prefer to hear it doesn't make it accurate.

I don't understand why we're going ahead with it. The fact is, once we've left we've left, whereas if we don't leave, leaving is always an option. So maybe if people are insistent on it we could actually, I dunno, prepare or summat.

I can probably afford to feel quite hopeful that it might turn out ok because I'll be able to move to any of the eu countries without too much hassle if things continue to be shit.

Next week it's the 1980s and redundancies. The EEC/EC/EU has been so good for British manufacturing

I think you’ll find that as a developed nation it was more cost effective for the UK to offshore manufacturing to countries with low labour costs.

Incidentally France has shown a similar decline in GDP derived from manufacturing as the UK between 1980 and 2010.

@Boy
I know it is frustrating as no one knows but you can think about your own family situation. Obviously not asking you to say on here but things like who do you work for and are they linked to the EU (depending on EU trade or whatever)? Is your job 'safe'? Only by itemising your life and seeing if there is significant 'input' from the EU can you get any idea.
Things like house and car insurance etc will be affected, but again no one can say how much.
There is no need for actual panic. At a wild guess things may get say 10% more expensive. Would you be 'kind of OK' or are you 'stuffed'?

One thing that happened in the 70s was that unions suddenly became able to negotiate ludicrous pay rises, for millions of people, always backdated several months. (Nothing to do with joining the EEC.)

I wasn't politically minded at the time, so I've no idea quite how it happened, but the rises were often 30-40%, with the inevitable effect on prices. The 1973 oil crisis contributed a lot - fuel was rationed, the price rocketed, & that led to increased prices too.

There also used to be sudden weird shortages of things like sugar, bread, toilet rolls in the 70s. Again not down to the EEC!

Watch 3BlokesInAPub on YouTube. Then decide for yourself.

I think there will be a major contraction in the economy that will be mirrored across the EU and there will be some impact globally I think. There will be a lot of jobs lost.

If the Tory government stays in power, expect employment rights to be dismantled almost right away. Although if there is some sort of deal and a transition period, it won't happen until Jan 2020.

Even if the forecast food shortages do not materialise (for long) I do think supplies of some other products will dry up - even if they are made in the UK, the manufacturers might not be able to get the ingredients as easily, or they might be too expensive. So eg if there's a mascara you like, buy several of them.

Oh and I expect there to be a bit of a consumer boom around Christmas and afterwards as anyone with any spare cash frantically buy things that they might not be able to get going forward.

My dad (who is financially more than comfortable, and lived through scary political times in the past) is scared.

I wasn’t, until he said that. Because he’s not a man who scaremongers or uses words flippantly. He considers every word he says (to the point that it’s really irritating sometimes) and for him to say he was scared really worried me.

The point is that nobody knows what’s coming, at all.

The smug “oh you’re so silly/stupid/thick” types will be forced to eat their words I think.

If nothing else, prices will rise, NI could potentially become a warzone again which nobody wants or needs, and I can’t see an advantage to Brexit.

The medication issue is worrying too.

I found this quite interesting in the Telegraph:
www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/08/24/atomic-success-story-amid-doomsday-chatter-brexit/
.

TL:DR if you can't get behind the paywall - there was a significant worry that because Britain would no longer be part of Euratom, things like radioactive isotopes for medical uses wouldn't be able to be imported post cliff-edge Brexit. However it seems like at least in this small area, contingency plans have been put into place, we now have our own national regulator accredited by the relevant international bodies and ready to step into place if things go tits up over negotiations.

This gives me some hope that the doomsday "all planes grounded, no food coming into the country" scenarios are over-egged. Chances are the really important stuff - air transport, imports of medicines, food security, will be in place by 19th March.

However, I think that comparisons with the 2008 crash are probably about right - I'd guess hike in food prices of 5 to 10%, probably similar for utilities, number of firms leaving the country and atttendant job losses, job losses in the public sector as public money gets diverted into patching up infrastructure/regulatory bodies needed for Brexit. So economically it will be pretty bad.

For anyone with a Telegraph subscription (mine exists in the spirit of "know what the other side is thinking"), this quiz on what exactly WTO terms mean is a very useful exercise in discovering what we have to negotiate in the next 6 months if we're not going to be up shit creek completely without a paddle (as opposed to up shit creek with a bit of a paddle, albeit one with chunks the crocodiles have bitten out of it).

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/22/much-do-really-know-wto-find-brexit-quiz/

Incidentally the Telegraph is informative, because if they're being pessimistic about something, when the editorial line is ultra-leave, then probably you really ought to be worrying about it. The Guardian at the other extreme catastrophises about everything, so it's quite hard to know which stories are the ones one should really be worrying about.

@Satsumaeater - good point. I spent a lot of time in the old Soviet Union and used to amazed at all the fab TVs etc. Really ordinary people with poor standards of living. It was a better way to store cash.

I still can’t get my head around the fact that we are doing this to our own country. It’s so utterly, utterly stupid- to sink your own economy just to placate xenophobia.

I don’t know what to do, we are in the generation that were worst affected by the 2008 crash, we both had to shift careers as a result and lost a substantial amount of income. We will be shafted by another crash and I’m too old, tired and skint to retrain again (my industry is v vulnerable to Brexit). Also too old to easily up sticks and move.

I don’t think I’ll ever forgive brexit voters for what they have done to my country, it was wantonly irresponsible whatever your reasons. Vote for the biggest change since the world wars with no plan in place and a useless government 👏

And don’t get me started on the tories. Why anyone votes for that bunch of total incompetents is beyond me. The only laugh I’ve had from all this is Chris “it’s not my fault” Grayling threatening the EU And May saying she’d never jeopardise the Union with NI?! Listen to yourself woman, it’s not the EU forcing you to, it’s yourself! You and your government are so obsessed with pleasing the ukippers you’d rather risk restarting the troubles than come to a sensible, Switzerland style arrangement.

Anyway, that’s my 6 monthly brexit rant done

That will be, I'm planning a consumer binge early in New Yr unless A50 gets revoked.

I think we are heading for a total disaster and i base this on the Governments own impact assessments, which because its coming from the very people who are taking us down this path, will be understating the issues.

A minor one, my travel insurance quote has gone up 40% as we'll have no EHIC next year, that has to be decided upon following brexit.

Or another serious one, 90% of Cornish businesses want Brexit halted as it will be bad for them, they pay taxes and employ people, should we listen to them or not?