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Brexit

Just how bad is it going to be? No scaremongering.

362 replies

BoyMeetsWorld · 21/09/2018 15:19

I'm very very worried as, I'm sure, are a lot of people.

Please can we have a thread with no scaremongering or speculation where we objectively look at just how bad it is likely to be if No Deal happens which Ms May seems set upon. For those of us left here with no escape route to live anywhere else...those of us who aren't currently in poverty but by no means rich, just middle earners with kids.

What is the most realistic situation we can expect to manage the horror stories and prepare properly? I'd like to try and cover all aspects of daily life which are likely to be impacted in a substantial way.

OP posts:
1tisILeClerc · 22/09/2018 11:25

Thank you Jasjas
{As i understand it, the assessments for us plebs are due out after next March.
No possible explanation as to why that might be, all seems perfectly sensible to me!!!!!}
I think I can summarise this with almost as much detail as the Gov can muster....'Your fuc^ed'

Devilishpyjamas · 22/09/2018 11:32

In the immediate weeks after Brexit I am most worried about my son’s medications. We’ve had trouble getting them at Xmas before (factory shuts down). Hmm

We are also meant to be holidaying across Europe next year. I am worried about affording it and am trying to pay for as much as possible before March.

I think there will be a fairly rapid increase in unemployment. I think food may rot in the ground (farmers seem a bit concerned about this) although maybe all the newly unemployed will be happy to work as crop pickers. Confused

DH’s oncome is potentially reliant on the housing market not crashing so that’s a bit of a concern.

We have quite a lot of debt (years of a disabled child). If we didn’t have that & had some reserves I would be worried for the country but not so much myself.

Livinglavidal0ca · 22/09/2018 11:39

Will we all notice a difference individually or will we still get up, go to work, feed the kids etc..will we actually notice the chaos?

Devilishpyjamas · 22/09/2018 11:41

I think that depends on a) whether things like medication are affected and b) how much disposable income you currently have and c) whether you lose your job

Mistigri · 22/09/2018 12:09

Will we all notice a difference individually or will we still get up, go to work, feed the kids etc..will we actually notice the chaos?

It depends on whether there is really no deal.

My view is that no deal remains unlikely precisely because citizens' ordinary lives would be disrupted.

bellinisurge · 22/09/2018 12:36

@Livinglavidal0ca - you'll notice it if the shelves are empty because supermarkets can't get stuff in.

Bestseller · 22/09/2018 12:43

I think, long term, it will be swings and roundabouts and overall things will end up much the same. However, in the medium term there will be winners and losers and for some individuals things will be very hard indeed while others will benefit.

1tisILeClerc · 22/09/2018 12:55

Unfortunately the 'just the same' may take 30 or more years to achieve.
I am unlikely to be alive then.
Being a bit selfish I would like it to be no worse, but preferably better than things are now. Sadly that ship has sailed.

Livinglavidal0ca · 22/09/2018 13:02

@bellinisurge my sister works in a supermarket and they've heard nothing about preparing for it. I work in pharmacy and we've been told nothing about getting extra medication in etc, I just feel like everyone's being kept in the dark!

Havanananana · 22/09/2018 13:34

If there is a deal (i.e. a Withdrawal Agreement and 21-month transition period) then there will be little impact - until the end of 2010. Until then, basically little changes.

If there is No Deal, which is what the OP asked about, then things look very different. This is not scaremongering - just looking at the legal position, the logistics and explaining the consequences.

Using food as an example;

About 50% of the food in your supermarket comes from the EU; either because it is grown or made there or imported via there. 10,000 lorries and containers arrive in the UK every day carrying foodstuffs. If this traffic is curtailed, or significantly reduced, the knock-on effect is less food in the shops. If all lorries have to be checked at the arrival port, the capacity of the ports and ferries is reduced significantly. If only 3,500 lorries a day can clear the ports, then 2/3 of the imported food immediately disappears from the supermarkets. That means about a third of supermarket shelves will be empty.

50% of the food consumed is UK-produced. But it often uses ingredients from the EU. A frozen pizza is topped with Irish cheese, Danish ham and salami, Italian tomato, Dutch mushrooms etc. No ingredients means no pizzas, and other products, so another supermarket shelf is bare.

UK food is picked, processed and delivered by a workforce, of which around 50% are from the EU. If these people go home, food production is hit - crops are not picked, meat is not processed. EU commercial driving licenses become invalid in the UK, so food deliveries are reduced. Meat production is overseen by vets, who ensure that welfare and hygiene standards are maintained. 90% of these vets are from the EU. Their qualifications may no longer be valid in the UK after Brexit. No vets means no meat production, and more empty shelves.

So supply-chain problems mean that somewhere between 30% and 50% of the shelves in the supermarket will be bare - the food is simply not available to fill them.

Under normal circumstances (i.e. deliveries and supplies are normal and customers only buy what they need each week) there is about 6 days worth of goods available in the supermarkets at any given time.

In the example above, up to half of this has already become unavailable, so now the shops only hold 3 days worth. This in itself is not a problem unless people begin to panic. Instead of buying what they usually need, customers look at the empty shelves and decide to double-up on purchases, meaning that the 3 days stock is gone in a day and a half or even quicker - the less food there is on the shelves, the greater the urgency to buy a bit extra. Clearly this is only an option for those who can afford it.

The government has already stated that plans are in place to stockpile food. This has its limitations, as perishable food cannot easily be stored but there is insufficient warehouse capacity to store food in. 6 weeks worth of food would require a warehouse 6 times the size of your local supermarket - for every supermarket and shop in the country.

Stockpiling food is also only a temporary solution. Stockpiling 6 weeks worth of food just means that the country hits crisis-point in mid-May instead of at the beginning of April.

Will this actually happen? Nobody knows, but it is a distinct possibility, and the government needs to be clear about how it will mitigate the problems that this would cause.

As has happened when there have been food shortages due to the weather (e.g. snow last winter) or fuel strikes, the shops could impose their own informal rationing system, limiting customers to what they can buy.

But if food supplies really are reduced to 50% of what is required, then a more formal rationing would have to be put in place by the government to ensure that food is equally and fairly distributed and doesn't just go to those who can afford it or those with the sharpest elbows.

mostdays · 22/09/2018 13:34

You want a speculative thread without speculation? How very in keeping with the times Grin

I think it could get very bad if we go for full on No Deal crash out Brexit. A deal that means we have the transition period would prevent the utter chaos and very real shortages the former would bring, and give us time to do the preparing we should have done alreadyneed. But we all know that any option short of remain will leave us worse off than we are now, for a significant period of time. Whether that translates to widespread significant hardship or means another round of 'cuts cuts cuts, let's make sure the poorest pay the biggest price for the mistakes of the political elite depends very much on what option we eventually take.

Mistigri · 22/09/2018 13:38

I wouldn't expect people in supermarkets or pharmacies to be told anything tbh. What can they do? Nothing. No pharmacy has room to store several weeks' worth of drugs, and who would pay for them to do it anyway. Likewise supermarkets rely on a quick turnover of products. If you told a supermarket manager that a hard or no deal Brexit was going to mean delays in fresh supplies of some products reaching the shop, what would do could s/he do?

It's a bit different in manufacturing, where it's possible for larger companies to mitigate the risk by offshoring some of their production that is intended for EU customers. But in retail I don't really see what anyone can do, expect perhaps recruit extra security personnel.

Petalflowers · 22/09/2018 13:46

Things I think will happen.

Food, insurance, petrol etc will all,go up in price.

Travel insurance - will increase to cover Europe. However, we already have to buy travel insurance for non-eec countries, so it will be an extension of that.

Job security - worry for dh’s job,

CashewNutsAndWine · 22/09/2018 13:51

I'm insulin dependent type 1 diabetic, so at the very worst I could die Sad

Womaningreen · 22/09/2018 13:54

OP you ask "are our savings safe?"

Is the finance protection thing for savings affected by Brexit? I must admit, I hadn't even thought about savings just sitting in the building society being affected. Sorry if being thick but why might that be the case?

I am slowly trying to stock up on cans and dried goods but I live in a small flat.

MetalMickey22 · 22/09/2018 14:03

I'm taking all my cash out just incase......

Livinglavidal0ca · 22/09/2018 14:16

People are saying they're going to stockpile medication, are doctors going to write out extra prescriptions?
The referendum was the first thing I ever voted in (because id just turned 18) and I'm so glad I did vote, although, I wasn't too sure what I was voting for but tried to do as much research with the crappy resources. I try not to worry, but I do wonder what it will mean for everyone!

1tisILeClerc · 22/09/2018 14:24

@Metalmicky
There is no point taking it out in cash (I don't think).
The banks aren't actually disappearing but exchange rates will alter and the value of cash will change too, relative to any other currency.
Maybe a weeks 'normal' spend as cash may be handy for going to the shops but some degree of 'normality' which may be different to today's normality will happen pretty quickly.
Depending on what is said about banking between now and March, having the latest bank balance printed out on 28th March might be good as 'proof' should anything really awkward happen.
The concept of a 'fully balanced diet' may go out of the window for a while so choosing foodstuffs that are in themselves near to a 'healthy' diet would be good. 6 bars of chocolate is not a balanced diet even though you can have 3 bars in each hand!

Hazardswan · 22/09/2018 14:25

Some drs are planning to write extra long prescriptions. There doesnt seem to be a coherent approach or plan... Hmm

Devilishpyjamas · 22/09/2018 14:29

Some medications can’t be stockpiled. The one we had problems getting previously at Xmas has a 4 week shelf life.

My son has epilepsy - I am very worried about being unable to access medication...

pumkinspicetime · 22/09/2018 14:31

I don't think it is short term impacts that most people should be worrying about so much as long term ones. JRM has said it may take 50 years to see benefits from this, that is several generations who will be impacted even if things are going well. You need a lot of stockpiled family wealth to be relaxed about that.
It seems likely that things will cost more some people will be able to cover this more easily than others.

GoodStuffAnnie · 22/09/2018 14:31

Stop reading mumsnet Brexit threads.

Nobody knows what will happen. Nobody. We’re all just guessing. But look through modern history, sometimes things are good sometimes bad. It’s part of life. This is nothing new. My hunch is that we’ll get a bounce next summer. Everyone will realise not much has changed and will start investing again, when some businesses have paused in last few months. Also, this has to be seen against a backdrop of us being overdue a recession. A normal part of the economic cycle, and you have lived through many.

GoodStuffAnnie · 22/09/2018 14:33

And a no deal is not a no deal it’s just a different deal.

Devilishpyjamas · 22/09/2018 14:37

And a no deal is not a no deal it’s just a different deal

A particularly shit one for us.

It’s fine to be relaxed if you/your child isn’t reliant on medication....

ralphi · 22/09/2018 14:48

goodstuffannie - independent of you are a remainer or a brexiteer, it should be clear that this is NOT going to be part of the normal up and down of the economy. You seem to believe there will be no impact of brexit, and I hope you are right about that, but there is no way that it will be business as usual....

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