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Brexit

Just how bad is it going to be? No scaremongering.

362 replies

BoyMeetsWorld · 21/09/2018 15:19

I'm very very worried as, I'm sure, are a lot of people.

Please can we have a thread with no scaremongering or speculation where we objectively look at just how bad it is likely to be if No Deal happens which Ms May seems set upon. For those of us left here with no escape route to live anywhere else...those of us who aren't currently in poverty but by no means rich, just middle earners with kids.

What is the most realistic situation we can expect to manage the horror stories and prepare properly? I'd like to try and cover all aspects of daily life which are likely to be impacted in a substantial way.

OP posts:
Confusedbeetle · 22/09/2018 14:54

Simple. NO ONE KNOWS! Good or bad, It will take time to find out. Just as people do the world over, in far worse situations than ours, get on with your life. We are not in the middle of a war, a plague , a famine or a nuclear explosion. Life goes on

RedneckStumpy · 22/09/2018 15:09

Hope for the best plan for the worst

Best case: Food and fuel increasing in price. Shortages of medications and some foods. Then

Worst case: The above, plus a serious economic downturn, and civil unrest.

Benjaminbuttonschild · 22/09/2018 15:21

I think civil unrest is a given. I hate the way our society is heading

YeTalkShiteHen · 22/09/2018 15:23

Well at least the “Army on the streets to combat civil unrest” won’t happen.

There aren’t enough soldiers to do it!

Mistigri · 22/09/2018 15:26

And a no deal is not a no deal it’s just a different deal.

That's completely false.

1tisILeClerc · 22/09/2018 15:29

There are predictions, by the people who predicted the 2008 global financial crash, that we are due another in a year or two.
This, assuming it happens will be irrespective of Brexit as even the total disappearance of the UK would be almost insignificant.
Planning to put the UK in an unstable place ahead of a global crash seems folly to me.

1tisILeClerc · 22/09/2018 15:31

{And a no deal is not a no deal it’s just a different deal.}
On the basis that the world cannot exist with no laws, something has to be agreed, however bad it might be for the UK so it is a kind of deal, a REALLY shit one.

FermatsTheorem · 22/09/2018 15:32

What I desperately want to see is a timetable for the worst case scenario.

There are, according to the FT, 759 treaties which will need to be re-negotiated.

www.ft.com/content/f1435a8e-372b-11e7-bce4-9023f8c0fd2e

Let's focus on the really important ones, the ones without which we're absolutely stuffed, starting with the ability to trade at all.

If we end up trading on WTO terms we first need to re-negotiate our membership of the WTO, and this needs to be in place by 29th March. How long will this renegotation take, i.e. how long before 29th March do we have to start?

How do we handle the fact that in principle, any existing WTO member can veto any negotiation at any point? (Just think what fun the Russians could have with that one...)

How long before March 29th do we have to start re-negotiating the air services agreements in order to be sure that planes aren't grounded on March 29th?

In particular, given that airline schedules are usually fixed months in advance, how do you re-negotiate the US-EU open skies arrangement in time?

How much time do you need to renegotiate the laws governing pharamceuticals?

These are the crucial questions I haven't seen answered. Hardline Brexiteers keep talking blithely about being able to leave on WTO terms - but the truth is even that needs negotiation, and if talks with the EU are on the rocks, at some point a decision has to be made to halt the process and negotiate those things necessary to leave on WTO terms. And I suspect that decision point is sooner rather than later.

GoodStuffAnnie · 22/09/2018 15:41

Ralphi- what is and isn’t a “normal” part of the economic cycle? Was 911, was the dot.com crash, long term capital management, 15% interest rates, global liquidity drying up, tsunami killing 250,000, total war, a change of government?

Brexit is a normal part of the economic cycle as were all the above events, by nature of them happening at all they are. It is not clear whether Brexit will have a bigger impact on the economy than any of the above events. There is no way to be sure whether it will be business as normal or not. It might be.

Mistigri · 22/09/2018 15:44

On the basis that the world cannot exist with no laws, something has to be agreed, however bad it might be for the UK so it is a kind of deal, a REALLY shit one.

I do happen to think that something will be agreed, because the UK will blink, but the legal position is that the UK ceases to be in the EU at 23h00 on 29/3/2019 whether there is a deal or not.

This is part of the problem - people have convinced themselves that no deal can be mitigated by a series of mini deals. But why would the EU offer that? (In their shoes I'd wait until queues of lorries had paralysed the M25 and the UK came begging).

GoodStuffAnnie · 22/09/2018 15:45

Redneckstumpy - best case - we boom. We have lowest unemployment on record. We thrive.

I think the only problem really is that it’s all still in the future and people have a habit or catastrophising.

FermatsTheorem · 22/09/2018 15:53

This is part of the problem - people have convinced themselves that no deal can be mitigated by a series of mini deals. But why would the EU offer that? (In their shoes I'd wait until queues of lorries had paralysed the M25 and the UK came begging).

You see, the thought that the EU might actually be planning this worries me deeply.

Whatever you think of Brexit, and whatever you think of issues like the lies told by Boris Johnson et al, or the funding of the Brexit campaign (and let us not forget that Cameron's government spent 7 million on the "remain" campaign), it was a democratic vote, by a nation with a functioning democratic system.

I think Juliet Samuels in the Telegraph is insightful on this one:

"I didn’t vote for Brexit. I thought – and still think – that it’s a strategic mistake that makes it harder to defend British interests. And God only knows our Government has hardly made the best of it."

"The EU, meanwhile, would discover whether it is a voluntary association of democracies or a gang of states who boycott any nation that decides to leave. That is the implicit threat of its negotiating position. Either surrender land, or we cut off planes, food, medicines, electricity and so on. In the good old days, such a threat would be considered an act of war. How lucky it is, then, that the EU is a peace project."

My feeling is that while the EU is certainly not obliged to dig us out of the hole, they should not take the extra step and threaten to heap the soil in on top of us. I can't see that anyone could seriously think that effectively putting the UK in a state of siege was a reasonable negotiating tactic.

RedneckStumpy · 22/09/2018 15:57

The army may combat civil unrest, but the moment the first protester is shot the country will implode.

In March the conditions will be perfect, hungry, angry people whe have lost their jobs, no security. The country will be a tinderbox. One incident could start a civil war.

WW1 started with one shooting.

RedneckStumpy · 22/09/2018 15:58

GoodStuffAnnie

You are of course right, anything could happen

HPFA · 22/09/2018 15:59

The Eu is not threatening to bankrupt us at all. Delays at ports will happen because there will now need to be extra paperwork due to the UK withdrawing VOLUNTARILY from the Single Market and the Customs Union.

The punishment and boycott narrative comes from those who did not understand the implications of what they were asking for and continue to blind themselves to facts and evidence.What the UK is still demanding is frictionless trade but with the UK able to lower its standards to gain a competitive advantage. The EU won't allow that to happen and it shouldn't.

Of course Remainers and the EU are going to be blamed for the difficulties because Brexiteers never take responsibility. But there isn't going to be much sympathy in Europe for self inflicted damage.

GoodStuffAnnie · 22/09/2018 15:59

That is insightful thanks Fermat.

The EU are indeed behaving without any decency. In any other time in history their behaviour would have led to war. I feel so sad that their behaviour is so disrespectful. Just get your ego out of it. All the presidents of the EU are unelected. It’s an astonishing act of double think that people are defending a dictatorship. George Orwell eat your heart out. Even goeballs could learn a thing off of these lo!

GoodStuffAnnie · 22/09/2018 15:59

Lot.

YeTalkShiteHen · 22/09/2018 16:11

RedneckStumpy absolutely. I was panicking a bit until DP (ex army veteran) spoke to his friends who are still in and there just aren’t enough to deploy.

Hazardswan · 22/09/2018 16:16

That's weirdly reassuring, thanks YetalkShitHen i hope your not talking shite Grin

Mistigri · 22/09/2018 16:17

My feeling is that while the EU is certainly not obliged to dig us out of the hole, they should not take the extra step and threaten to heap the soil in on top of us. I can't see that anyone could seriously think that effectively putting the UK in a state of siege was a reasonable negotiating tactic.

The EU plainly doesn't want no deal, which is why they have been making encouraging noises in response to Chequers and why Barnier has been keen to look at data on cross border trade with Ireland.

The problem is that the UK has yet to make any proposals that don't break UK law or threaten the single market. And given a choice between threatening the single market and putting the UK in a state of siege, they will protect the jewel in their crown. But of course no one wants to get to the point where that is the only option.

This is worth a read - an account of the misunderstandings that lead to Salzburg:

www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2018/0921/995292-salzburg-chronic-misreading/

Mistigri · 22/09/2018 16:17

"Don't break UK law" should read "Don't break EU law" of course ...

Ta1kinpeace · 22/09/2018 16:22

Hope for the best
Prepare for the worst

I hope that the technocrats are quietly getting things in place to sign up BINO early in the new year.

No Deal would be catastrophic for the UK economy.

Womaningreen · 22/09/2018 16:23

Leclerc

"Depending on what is said about banking between now and March, having the latest bank balance printed out on 28th March might be good as 'proof' should anything really awkward happen"

I would do this anyway, but what are you thinking might occur because of Brexit?

It's the poster talking about protecting savings which has alarmed me. I thought the FSC guarantee was a UK thing.

Ta1kinpeace · 22/09/2018 16:26

The FSCS guarantee is most definitely and EU thing .... the amount is 100,000 Euros
hence why the sterling value fluctuates around the £80,000 mark depending on exchange rates

Once the UK leaves the EU, FSCS will be gone

RedneckStumpy · 22/09/2018 16:27

Womaningreen

I would withdraw my money, there is the FSC guarantee, but do you trust the government?

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