Just how bad is it going to be? No scaremongering.

[BoyMeetsWorld]

I'm very very worried as, I'm sure, are a lot of people.

Please can we have a thread with no scaremongering or speculation where we objectively look at just how bad it is likely to be if No Deal happens which Ms May seems set upon. For those of us left here with no escape route to live anywhere else...those of us who aren't currently in poverty but by no means rich, just middle earners with kids.

What is the most realistic situation we can expect to manage the horror stories and prepare properly? I'd like to try and cover all aspects of daily life which are likely to be impacted in a substantial way.

@belinisurge i hear you, and I too share your concerns at the way our elected officials are handling the whole process. The lack of a strong opposition is really concerning!

I worry for our future generations and the impact a bad deal will have on millions of people.

I also remain open minded, and willing to admit I may be very very wrong.
But, the op asked how bad it will be, so I have just tried to display another point of view.
I also don’t believe that remainers love all the EU stands for and can’t see it’s faults.

PS

As a complete random post script I just made two donations:

1.Increased my payment to the Guardian.

1. Donated to the fund to bring proceedings against Johnson. I've no axe to grind against him more than others, but deceit in public office, or misfeasance in public office needs to be acted upon as an example.

There's some excellent investigative journalism there and there has to be an honest factual counterbalance to the Daily Vile.

The Guardian often quoted on MN and these threads and is not the mouthpiece of billionaire owners or politicians. As they say it gives a rare voice to the voiceless, and seeks to hold the right wing extremists to account.Now more than ever factual, honest reporting is critical.

@FrankUnderwoodsWife - if the worst thing that happens is that I am wrong, I can live with that.
I really don't want to be right. Or even a bit right.

@Havanananana Nothing you have written is wrong. The majority of people who voted to leave have been let down by successive governments, who then blamed the EU for the hardships they face.

I lay the blame squarely at the feet of DC who put us into this sorry mess.

But some people who did vote to leave didn’t do it through blind ignorance (suggested on other threads, not this one which has thankfully been very civilized - so unMN)

This thread is so annoying- it keeps pulling me back in I really have to get on with my day job!!
Appreciate the really interesting and informative discussion

I understand, you don’t like the source so will ignore any of the proposals he puts forward.

Singham and the Free Traders tend to use economic models which are out of step with empirical data.

Martin Sandbu wrote a good article in the FT last year on previous offerings by the Free Traders: you should be able to google “Beware the global Britain con trick” to find it (can’t easily link as its behind the paywall).

@buteo thanks for sharing that - it’s an interesting article and makes lots of valid points backed up by data. I only skimmed it, but shall read it in full later

There are plenty of things 'wrong' with the EU although I believe that since many or all the points of view taken by all 28 countries are debated before being put to the individual countries any particularly extreme legislation is unlikely to happen. I feel that there is considerable 'slippage' in what the EU propose and legislate for doesn't always get to the the citizens in all countries as it was intended, partly because sovereign states that we all are, may chose to be a little less 'exacting' in implementation.
I expect it is quite easy to spot things that we think are 'laws' which are being broken by other countries, and of course vise versa.

frank this one looks interesting too - but a much longer read:

Bound by Gravity or Living in a ‘Post Geography Trading World’? Expert Knowledge and Affective Spatial Imaginaries in the Construction of the UK’s Post-Brexit Trade Policy

www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/13563467.2018.1484722?needAccess=true&

Havana another really good post.

I think the question of who would profit of said increase in wealth is important when we know that the difference in wealth between the richest and the poorest counties is already one of the biggest one in industrialised countries.

this one looks interesting too

No, it really isn't. 18 pages of navel-gazing that just says 'One group of experts believe that the UK is better off going for a hard Brexit and Global Free Trade, and another group of experts saying that a soft Brexit would be better.'

No discussion about the impact on ordinary people of either course of action.

No appraisal of whether or not both positions are wrong, and that there may be other solutions - or that not going through with Brexit at all might be an even better solution.

But it does have a few good references.

Did Singham get his maths wrong?

www.bbc.com/news/uk-45625724

If your results are widely different from those of other researchers, and then can't be replicated, you have a problem.

Frank You accused me of lying. Care to substantiate ?

Hi Talking, I am not accusing you of lying. You said we will have no tradedeals. That is factually incorrect. We will, but under WTO rules for access to Europe. Do you agree or am I interpreting this incorrectly?

...first, we have to rejoin the WTO

Any idea how shit it is just having WTO trade rules?
Spoiler alert:it's shit

FrankunderwoodWTO rules are not a trade deal by any normal interpretation thereof.

And not a single country in the world currently trades purely on WTO terms

Not even Mauritania or North Korea (those colossuses of international trade ) who until recently were the exceptions that proved the rule - but who also now have some MRA deals.

I stand corrected. I thought that the UK was an independent member of the WTO. I now see we were a member via the EU and have submitted an application to remain but independent from EU. Apologies Talkin you were right and i was misinformed (phone wont allow me to format hence bunched up paragraph)

Anyway. How bad could things get? – WTO, FTA, CITA etc are all irrelevant if the food, goods and medicines cannot reach the UK:

UK-EU flights could cease in event of no-deal Brexit, says government
In latest set of ‘no-deal’ notices, government says planes could be grounded because EU licences would not be valid
(and flights into the UK from elsewhere, including freight traffic would also be curtailed)
www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/24/uk-eu-flights-would-cease-immediately-in-event-of-no-deal-brexit

UK hauliers could be banned from continent under no deal Brexit, government says
(and of course, the reverse applies – foreign hauliers cannot operate in the UK)
www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/sep/24/labour-conference-liverpool-brexit-no-deal-papers-cbi-claims-investment-would-flee-country-under-labours-plan-to-make-firms-give-shares-to-workers-politics-live

Yes, it'll be ok. We'll just have to live without
the little luxuries, like antibiotics and Cornwall.

The latest batch of Government papers advising British people and businesses about how to prepare for a no-deal Brexit shows that the UK could face food shortages, grounded flights and chaos at the ports

In a stinging critique, the Food and Drink Federation said that ‘the grisly prospect’ of no deal involves ‘a severe impact on UK food and drink supplies

Ian Wright CBE, FDF Chief Executive said: “While the UK may not run out of food and drink it will certainly be scarcer and more expensive

UK shoppers, who have become accustomed to year-round availability of a wide range of safe, high-quality food and drink at all price points, will face a very rude awakening.https://uk.news.yahoo.com/government-set-release-latest-batch-no-deal-brexit-advice-papers-120400688.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&guccounter=1

The food and drink federation have been giving increasingly blunt warnings for more than a year. They have requested emergency meetings with the govt etc. Industry specialists continue to be ignored - yet members of the cabinet listen to fringe opinions from people like Singham...it's beyond insane.

www.fdf.org.uk/publications_industry.aspx

am I interpreting this incorrectly?

GATT and the WTO establish basic rules for trade, a basic level playing field. It's not a "trade deal" in any real sense and certainly not in the sense of a free trade agreement.