Just how bad is it going to be? No scaremongering.

[BoyMeetsWorld]

I'm very very worried as, I'm sure, are a lot of people.

Please can we have a thread with no scaremongering or speculation where we objectively look at just how bad it is likely to be if No Deal happens which Ms May seems set upon. For those of us left here with no escape route to live anywhere else...those of us who aren't currently in poverty but by no means rich, just middle earners with kids.

What is the most realistic situation we can expect to manage the horror stories and prepare properly? I'd like to try and cover all aspects of daily life which are likely to be impacted in a substantial way.

Here's a thread that I tried to keep brief talking about no deal and meds

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/3370225-I-know-Im-annoying-but

There's longer term problems associated with no deal and meds and the NHS but it's best to start small I thought.

It could be a bit rocky for a year or two. Trouble is it will be very unevenly distributed - those losing their jobs will hurt a lot more than those who only have to tighten their belt a bit. Longer term it depends on the leadership we get and how they enable to economy to reshape itself to thrive in the new conditions, but it could be a lot better. If we get a government who doesn't understand the task, it could be worse. Too many unknowables.

I'm pretty sure there will be some kind of deal that will smooth it out though. I'm choosing to stay positive.

Well, Cornwall were one of the many areas who voted for Brexit so my sympathy for them is limited.

Just to add to the excitement another global crash, nothing to do with Brexit is forecast in a couple of years time.
A spiffing time to unhitch the UK from the EU waggon.

I think some food stuffs (Eu imported) will become v expensive. Food generally will be more costly. Standard of living for many already on the cusp will tip them over into big problems.

I worry for the younger generation. We seem to be drifting back in time and this was before Brexit. If less opportunities, only the most financially stable will grab them.

I worry about NI and the fragile peace that is unravelling. This will not exactly help it.

I worry about a divided country becoming more divided.

I worry that my ex won’t be able to stay and ds loses his df. Similarly if friends give up on uk and rerurn home - I’ll miss them.

I worry about a cash strapped nhs having to spend more on certain drugs we import from EU.

I don’t worry about uk planes not being able to fly over EU air space. It won’t happen.

I don’t worry about the Eu reciprocal agreement on health care. You just have to buy more insurance.

The list is endless....

I don’t think I can tighten my belt any further though...

The thing is, if we had a really competent government, that might be different. This shower, though, is the most incompetent bunch I've ever known, and I've been interested in politics since the late 70s. We have no chance at all.

I think it will be terrible at least Italy and 2 others will leave by the end of 2019. By the end of 2021 Germany will be propping up those the creaking EU. I'll be amazed if it lasts till 2025 when Germany implodes under the debt incurred propping up the failing EU.

Next week it's the 1980s and redundancies.

So nothing to do with the British government that was in power at the time then?

There's a very comprehensive report here - click to download.

ukandeu.ac.uk/research-papers/cost-of-no-deal-revisited/

One of the problems with "No Deal" is that its proponents do in fact assume there will be deals. They tend to say "Oh, it'll be all right because we'll have a mini-deal on aviation etc" In other words, we'll be entirely dependent on the EU to make things slightly less uncomfortable.

But I think No Deal will happen. There has been a madness descended that somehow destroying our own economy and prosperity is "socking it to the man." I suspect the EU has decided that there is no point being rational and they will just spend the next few months protecting themselves from the consequent damage.

I have been watching the TV series Back in time for the factory where they do a re-enactment of social history. They are featuring women workers in a garment factory. They started the series in the 1960s when everything was swinging. We are now into the 1970s, when we joined the EEC, and things are getting sticky. Next week it's the 1980s and redundancies. The EEC/EC/EU has been so good for British manufacturing.

This is a typical example of the 'blame the EU for everything', non-critical-thinking, Brexiteer mindset. Garment production has mostly gone to China and Bangladesh, ie. outside the EU. Why? Because of capitalism and globalisation. For a more recent example of a successful manufacturer moving production out of the UK, you could look at Dyson who moved to Malaysia to maximise his profits. He's a massive supporter of Leave. I wonder why. . Could it be because if we leave the EU, we might see a bonfire of workers' rights (see Rees Mogg arguing for massive deregulation post EU).
I wonder who people like purits will blame when we leave.
OP, I suggest you read the government's own impact statements - anything else is likely to be dismissed as Project Fear by the beLeavers.

HPFA thank you for that report link and yes, I agree

I don’t worry about uk planes not being able to fly over EU air space. It won’t happen.
You know the Open Skies agreement is nothing to do with 'UK planes not being able to fly over EU air space', don't you?

Just trying to find the official government impact reports online....can only find the draft ones from back in Jan. Are there any non-draft versions please?

Here you are OP

www.gov.uk/government/collections/how-to-prepare-if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-with-no-deal

EU preparedness notices are here:

ec.europa.eu/info/brexit/brexit-preparedness/preparedness-notices_en

European Parliament impact studies:

www.europarl.europa.eu/unitedkingdom/en/brexitpublic/brexitstudies.html

No one can say they weren't warned.

@twofingerstoEverything - I don't need to watch TV history programmes having actually lived through it.
If you think that the EU is responsible for our economic doldrums, you are frankly, an idiot.

@bellinisurge well said!

I can't believe the nerve of Theresa May with her speech. Making out like it's down to Juncker to solve our problems and having a tantrum when he doesn't agree to us having our cake and eating it! Leaving his going to fuck over many generations. The referendum as only advisory and not legally binding as EVERYONE knows.

So why are we still going ahead with this shit when everyone says it will be shit?

In answer to the question of the OP - I reckon it will be bad and we will be seeing the outcomes for a very long time afterwards. Not sure what they are but I think it will all come out in the wash. Things that have slipped peoples minds because they've taken them for granted because they've always been there. Suddenly these things won't be there, or they'll be harder to obtain or process and that's when people go 'Ooops!'.

good question OP

I tried looking at the government papers but really what I'm after is an impact report for the ordinary Jane.

if it's food prices going up and medication shortages, it's an issue of course. I can't stock up on asthma medication, I haven't talked to the doctor yet but i imagine it isn't something I'm allowed to have an extra supply of - the reliever inhaler at any rate. The preventer inhaler might be allowed possibly.

If you think that the EU is responsible for our economic doldrums, you are frankly, an idiot.
What the actual fuck, Bellini? Maybe you'd like to actually RTT - particularly my post, which makes very clear that I think this is 'capitalism' issue and not an EU one - and apologise? I'm clearly quoting an earlier poster (purits). I even name him/her in my post. I'm disappointed in you.

That's exactly it @Womaningreen - an Impact Report For the Ordinary Jane. Those government notices are all for business, not for us. Will our mortgages increase? Food shopping (& which products)? Which job sectors are most at risk of redundancies? What public services are likely to be cut? How will our holidays be impacted? Are our savings safe? Etc...

They haven't finished releasing the impact notices, because the ones that are potentially the most devastating for ordinary people are too sensitive. They will release them when the press is busy with something else.

As i understand it, the assessments for us plebs are due out after next March.
No possible explanation as to why that might be, all seems perfectly sensible to me!!!!!

A no-deal "Impact Report For the Ordinary Jane"^^ would look like scaremongering but you have already said you don't want that. If you want a taste for this, I recommend going on Twitter and reading tweets by "Ciaran the Euro courier" (@donnyc1975) who is a van driver at the sharp end of this.

The initial no-deal hit would be a logjam at the channel ports which would affect not only UK exports but also imports, because you can't load a ferry at Calais if incoming vehicles can't be discharged due to queues at customs.

Otherwise, the impact will depend on the deal. I'm still in the "there will probably be a deal camp" so I don't think your supermarkets shelves are going to be empty, but there is a growing risk that I am wrong.

@Boy
Sadly it is the latest 'cut'. We have a DIY government, they have privatised everything so they are no longer responsible for anything except receiving large paychecks.
While this may sound a bit extreme, just thinking about a few 'government' responsibilities you start to wonder. Bin collection, passport services, and everything in between.
They are simply extending matters by making you THINK for the government.
I think it is fair to say that the 'standard of life' for almost all will reduce. Mr Hammond has announced cuts, in a variety of euphemisms. Javid is proposing all sorts of 'nastiness', all 'against' the good of the general public. Putting numbers to it is impossible. The Pound value fell I think 1.4% yesterday largely due to Mrs May's speech at Downing street.