Just how bad is it going to be? No scaremongering.

[BoyMeetsWorld]

I'm very very worried as, I'm sure, are a lot of people.

Please can we have a thread with no scaremongering or speculation where we objectively look at just how bad it is likely to be if No Deal happens which Ms May seems set upon. For those of us left here with no escape route to live anywhere else...those of us who aren't currently in poverty but by no means rich, just middle earners with kids.

What is the most realistic situation we can expect to manage the horror stories and prepare properly? I'd like to try and cover all aspects of daily life which are likely to be impacted in a substantial way.

Wikipedia seems to say the FSCS is very much a UK thing but its rules have been modified to comply with EU rules.

Ah, not just me who is confused.

Redneck, I totally see your point about not trusting the government but I can't see where I would put the cash if I withdrew it? I presume posters talking about withdrawing cash mean they will put it in a foreign account. What would count as a safe country to put the money in? And then I guess there'd be fees eating up savings? I've never invested abroad so wouldn't know how to start.

@GoodStuffAnnie (and others)

The OP didn't ask 'what are the chances of there being No Deal?' - she asked 'just how bad it is likely to be if No Deal happens..?'

I've already outlined up-thread the legal and logistical implications of No Deal on the supply of food. In short, food supplies will be badly affected and the shops could run out in a matter of days. Stockpiling only delays the date on which the food runs out - it doesn't provide a long-term solution.

As my post was already very long, I didn't comment on the affect of No Deal on food prices, but I will do now.

If the UK leaves the EU and begins trading under WTO Terms, Defra (a government department) estimates that food imports overall will cost 2% more due to the increased costs of non-tariff items (customs admin, certificates, time lost etc) and 9% more based on world commodity prices and tariffs - a total of 11% (on average).

The British Retail Consortium estimates that tariffs on EU food would result in an average increase in prices of 22%. Again this is an average; Irish cheese would increase by 40%, Dutch tomatoes by 21%.

All this is before we consider the impact of a fall in the value of sterling. The pound has already fallen by 30% since 2015, so perhaps it hasn't much further to fall, but a fall of another 10-12% against the Euro would further increase the cost of imported food, so the combined affect of non-tariff costs, WTO tariffs and the fall in the pound might add 10% - 20% to domestic food bills.

I make no comment as to how likely is it that 'No Deal' will happen, nor how desirable (or not) it is, nor who would be to blame if it happened - you can all follow the debate on MN and in the media.

THe Wikipedia page is slightly misleading - in that its a UK scheme linked to an EU one and the amount is definitely based on Euros (it changes every year or so)
www.fscs.org.uk/what-we-cover/

That's a good post Havana.

Though my reply would still be that "no deal" would be so disruptive and expensive for the ordinary consumer that it is unlikely to happen.

My comment about having a copy of latest bank details is just extra security. Banking passports MAY need to be sorted out and there could be a hell of a lot of rejigging things and deals in which mistakes probably will be made. If anything happens a bit of paper with your bank statement immediately before 29 March just might come in handy. It shows what you had in your account at that point in case it were queried
Living in France where you need a ream of paperwork to do anything is teaching me you can never have enough documentation!
The RBS online banking was down over the last couple of days due to a 'glitch' and unless it was actually an attack that triggered it it just shows you can't be too careful.
You need to think of it something like renewing your car insurance. There is a time and date when it expires and if you fail to renew you are not covered even a minute after that time. The UK is contemplating (in a no deal) of cancelling 760 or thereabouts, legal contracts which are woven into almost everything we do.
It isn't a matter of the EU being 'nasty' it is simply the law.
You have a bump in your car after the insurance expires, the insurance company shrugs it's shoulders, not their problem.

The UK had a deposit guarantee scheme several years before (I think in response to the 2009 crisis) the FSCS was brought in all over the EU (2014 maybe?). I'm speaking from memory so the dates may be slightly off, but not much. There is absolutely no way the government will not have an equivalent guarantee even in a no deal Brexit. I think it may even be written into the Basel principles. Honestly it is just bizarre how hysterical these boards get.

Megan
The FSCS will indeed work in some shape or form
BUT
It currently covers EU banks (such as Santander and the Bank of Ireland)
with full reciprocal agreements.
If there is a "no deal" that will have to end.

Santander UK is a UK regulated bank, so their customers will be treated the same as all other UK banks and I would imagine will just be part of the UK scheme. Don't know about Bank of Ireland.
Obviously if you have money overseas, you would be subject to the foreign rules. But I really doubt that customers of Santander in Spain would be excluded from the FSCS just on the basis of them being British.

On the recommendation of a poster here I went to watch 3blokesinapub on YouTube. Hahahaha. 3 millionaire businessmen remainers in a pub. Thanks for wasting 5 mins of my life.

{Honestly it is just bizarre how hysterical these boards get.}
I think I was told off for using the 'H' word some time ago.
Meanwhile, reviewing what MIGHT happen is worthwhile as when you start to look in detail you start to realise how complicated things really are so when you get 'The Mogg' saying 'we will just use WTO rules', sounds great in principle, but the reality is that to do this you have to have multi party negotiations for every tiny detail of every agreement.
Moving cattle for example. There are categories such as 0-6 months old, male or female. 6 months to 1 year M/F and so on and the tariffs can be different for each category. Any party that may be trading cattle has to be involved in the discussion, so it is not say Ireland and Spain, but everybody else dealing with cattle.
That is why these sort of negotiations can take up to 10 years. You can't 'cut and paste' as some in the ERG suggest you can.

Well you can’t deny this Mogg is very intelligent. To suggest you understand more than him about what is possible in Politics is just a bit daft.

Santander UK is part of the Spanish group and is DEEPLY concerned about the potential loss of passporting rights.

Its interesting that the UK Govt "no deal" papers are being released in reverse order of seriousness.
Air travel and banking are the two humdingers and they are being delayed for a day when there is another big story to hie behind.

I can deny Mogg's is very intelligent.

Because he isn't.

😂 everyone knows he is. It may pain you, but he is. You might not like his views but he’s a clever fucker for sure.

@Vinylsamso - please yourself. Hope you find the Brexiteer millionaires just as reliable.

Also, check out the posh vs posh Nicholas Soames (Churchill's grandson) vs Rees Mogg. The former thinks the latter is a badly dressed twat. Only he says it more politely.

Both Rees Mogg and Johnston have benefited from an incredibly expensive education.
It does not make them intelligent.
They are not.

I don’t find anyone rambling on about Brexit interesting. 3 average blokes in a pub all with different lives and opinions might capture my attention for a bit though, but just for a bit 😴

Lol is he? Literally never heard it said before or read before. He's a relic from somwhere walking around like Woody's evil british cousin. He's the snake in your boot to Woody's howdy. The toy story character that got cut for being to mean. Some how he made it out of Pixar and into our streets.

I wouldn't want Nicholas Soames vouching for me.

Well you can’t deny this Mogg is very intelligent. To suggest you understand more than him about what is possible in Politics is just a bit daft.

I was at the same university as him at the same time. He dressed the same way then. I have no idea whether he is massively intelligent or not (hard to tell when someone is as privileged as him - & he’s not an academic). I can tell you he is very out of touch and doesn’t have a scooby how the majority of people live in the U.K. I find that ignorance rather dangerous in any MP.

All the presidents of the EU are unelected.

Not strictly true:

The “lead candidate” process, first used in the 2014 European elections, gives European citizens a say on candidates for EU Commission President.

Based on the results of the European Elections, a lead candidate will be elected President of the Commission by the European Parliament, after being formally proposed by heads of state and government, who will take into account the outcome of the European elections.

This was the case for the first time in 2014, when the European People’s Party’s lead candidate Jean-Claude Juncker was appointed Commission President. Ahead of the 2014 elections, five European political parties had named their “lead candidates”.

Either surrender land, or we cut off planes, food, medicines, electricity and so on.

But that is the natural result of the UK voluntarily withdrawing from ALL the treaties that govern these things without anything in their place.

Once the UK leaves the EU, FSCS will be gone

The BoE has already said that a deposit scheme will continue, but the limits may be changed as it will no longer be required to harmonise with the EU 100k Euro amount nor carry out the statutory 5 year reviews.

More tricky if you have a UK savings product offered under licence from other EU countries - like Ikano for instance, which is covered by the Swedish Deposit Insurance Scheme.

He's certainly exceptionally fluent and concise, that's the Eton education for you. Clever is something different and in politics I think his cleverness is unproven. Although he has made his own fortune which surely requires skill.

@GoodStuffAnnie

All the presidents of the EU are unelected

The President is not the political head of the government in most EU countries - that is the Prime Minister (or equivalent post), who is appointed, just like the UK's PM, by being the leader of the ruling party/parties. The delegates at the EU summit last week were the Prime Ministers, or their equivalents - the elected political leaders of each country.

The President is the ceremonial Head of State. The UK has a Head of State too; The Queen, who of course isn't elected. The Upper House of the UK Parliament is not elected either.

And as it happens, in many EU countries the President is elected by popular vote. For example, the elected President of Poland is Andrzej Duda. The PM of Poland is Mateusz Morawiecki. He is the one who attends the EU meetings and was in Salzburg last week.

The President of Germany is Frank-Walter Steinmeier. He is likewise elected, by representatives of the various elected Federal States, to be the overall Head of State. Frau Merkel is the Chancellor and the de facto political chief executive.

Denmark and Holland don't have Presidents - they have monarchs. Their Prime Ministers are elected.

In case you meant the 'President of the EU', there isn't one. Donald Tusk is President of the European Council. He was elected by the members of the European Council - i.e. by the Prime Ministers that the voters in the EU countries have elected.