Party Conference Season has officially started. What happens could be utterly crucial for Brexit since Brexit isn't about the EU its about internal party divisions and the politics of personality.
Starting off in the Yellow Corner
The Lib Dems proposals for associate membership and a leader outside the HoC. We know that they support exit from Brexit but what is striking is the shake up of the party seems to be the only thing drawing attention and there is a distinct lack of talk of anything else - including Brexit. Yet there are hints of a tiny shift back to the LDs as Labour and the Conservatives implode despite the LDs having lost all direction. If they can find one then maybe they can throw spanners into the works further down the line.
Moving over to the Red Corner in Liverpool
The Labour Party strife and squabbling gets to be airred in full view in Liverpool; the ongoing anti-semitism row which seems to have no end in sight, the rising issues over women's rights, various Labour MPs being no confidenced in an attempt to deselect them and Brexit policy or more correctly lack of Brexit policy. Thornberry has stated that Labour will vote against any deal May puts forward seemingly in order to trigger another GE. This has been denied as being official policy, but she's a front bencher who hasn't been slapped down for disobedience by Corbyn. There are lots of rumours flying around about the party leadership being under pressure to change direction on Brexit so her comments might be push back against that. Word is that various trade unions and perhaps even Momentum are looking to push for another referendum and a much more pro-remain or explicit EEA policy.
And then there's the Blues...
Where to start with them??
Talk has changed from not whether there will be a leadership challenge to open and widespread discussion from moderate party loyals about when there will be one.
Its been said that a challenge isn't expected at conference nor straight after; the feeling is May will be left to sort out the withdrawal backstop agreement in October at least before being rudely dumped. But don't count on it. Especially in the party of backstabbers.
There's been lots of movement around Johnson too. Former close advisors say he's on self destruct but will still probably be PM. There's the break up of his marriage. There's the complete failure of his time in the foreign office where its hard to see what he actually did apart from upset people. There's his outrageous comments which seem in the style of Steve Bannon. There's talk of him suddenly apparently showing Brexit regret. For me there is one question, which seems very similar to Brexit itself: Boris Johnson has spent so much time and effort into the game of becoming PM, what thought has he given to what he actually does when he has achieved it? Its almost as if there is no plan for that...
Then theres the ERG, with their alternative Brexit White Paper which includes the magic Irish 'Not a Border but Looks Just Like a Border' Solution. Its supported by just about every Tory MP you'd put in a horror cabinet of heartless cold out of touch bastards, who would drive 20 miles out of their way rather than pass through a council estate. But even their stance seems to be softening; talk of aligning NI closely with EU - particularly with agrifoods seems to be moving away from a position compatible with a US trade deal.
And finally the original Tory Rebels, who like everyone else are firmly sticking their fingers up at May's Chequers Deal. Several have said they would support a People's Vote if May doesn't get her head out of her arse and admit the idea is a dead duck.
Look out for more 'non-Tory' style policy plans coming out over the next couple of weeks, like the talk of renationalising the railways.
So what does this mean for Brexit?
Well nothing and everything.
None of this changes the EU position. None of this changes the realities of the negogition process and the 29th March deadline.
It just is in some ways the final party show downs before decisions start HAVING to be made. Party fractures are going to be tested to their limits and the chances of it getting nasty, with the stakes being so high, are high.
I wouldn't like to call ANYTHING unless the conclusion of the conferences.
Its something we don't need as a country. Waiting for this lot to get their shit together has doomed the country.
The Recession is coming. It can not be stopped now. Regardless of what happens over Brexit. Its too late. We can only mitigate the scale of it.
This is the part just before the 2008 crash when people were saying what was about to happen, but everyone ignored. The accepted narrative now is that 'no one could have predicted the crash'. Except they could and they did. Its just that no one wanted to listen.
This is the part just before Iraq where thousands protested and were not listened to, because a politician had it in his head that it was the best option, but he had no real plan for what happened next.
This is the part when people said PFI was a spectactularly bad idea. But it kept being used over and over and over again by all political parties because it was politically easier in the short term.
Enjoy this Christmas.
Next year is going to be a rough old ride for a lot of people.