Westministenders: Conference Season

[RedToothBrush]

Party Conference Season has officially started. What happens could be utterly crucial for Brexit since Brexit isn't about the EU its about internal party divisions and the politics of personality.

Starting off in the Yellow Corner
The Lib Dems proposals for associate membership and a leader outside the HoC. We know that they support exit from Brexit but what is striking is the shake up of the party seems to be the only thing drawing attention and there is a distinct lack of talk of anything else - including Brexit. Yet there are hints of a tiny shift back to the LDs as Labour and the Conservatives implode despite the LDs having lost all direction. If they can find one then maybe they can throw spanners into the works further down the line.

Moving over to the Red Corner in Liverpool
The Labour Party strife and squabbling gets to be airred in full view in Liverpool; the ongoing anti-semitism row which seems to have no end in sight, the rising issues over women's rights, various Labour MPs being no confidenced in an attempt to deselect them and Brexit policy or more correctly lack of Brexit policy. Thornberry has stated that Labour will vote against any deal May puts forward seemingly in order to trigger another GE. This has been denied as being official policy, but she's a front bencher who hasn't been slapped down for disobedience by Corbyn. There are lots of rumours flying around about the party leadership being under pressure to change direction on Brexit so her comments might be push back against that. Word is that various trade unions and perhaps even Momentum are looking to push for another referendum and a much more pro-remain or explicit EEA policy.

And then there's the Blues...
Where to start with them??

Talk has changed from not whether there will be a leadership challenge to open and widespread discussion from moderate party loyals about when there will be one.

Its been said that a challenge isn't expected at conference nor straight after; the feeling is May will be left to sort out the withdrawal backstop agreement in October at least before being rudely dumped. But don't count on it. Especially in the party of backstabbers.

There's been lots of movement around Johnson too. Former close advisors say he's on self destruct but will still probably be PM. There's the break up of his marriage. There's the complete failure of his time in the foreign office where its hard to see what he actually did apart from upset people. There's his outrageous comments which seem in the style of Steve Bannon. There's talk of him suddenly apparently showing Brexit regret. For me there is one question, which seems very similar to Brexit itself: Boris Johnson has spent so much time and effort into the game of becoming PM, what thought has he given to what he actually does when he has achieved it? Its almost as if there is no plan for that...

Then theres the ERG, with their alternative Brexit White Paper which includes the magic Irish 'Not a Border but Looks Just Like a Border' Solution. Its supported by just about every Tory MP you'd put in a horror cabinet of heartless cold out of touch bastards, who would drive 20 miles out of their way rather than pass through a council estate. But even their stance seems to be softening; talk of aligning NI closely with EU - particularly with agrifoods seems to be moving away from a position compatible with a US trade deal.

And finally the original Tory Rebels, who like everyone else are firmly sticking their fingers up at May's Chequers Deal. Several have said they would support a People's Vote if May doesn't get her head out of her arse and admit the idea is a dead duck.

Look out for more 'non-Tory' style policy plans coming out over the next couple of weeks, like the talk of renationalising the railways.

So what does this mean for Brexit?
Well nothing and everything.

None of this changes the EU position. None of this changes the realities of the negogition process and the 29th March deadline.

It just is in some ways the final party show downs before decisions start HAVING to be made. Party fractures are going to be tested to their limits and the chances of it getting nasty, with the stakes being so high, are high.

I wouldn't like to call ANYTHING unless the conclusion of the conferences.

Its something we don't need as a country. Waiting for this lot to get their shit together has doomed the country.

The Recession is coming. It can not be stopped now. Regardless of what happens over Brexit. Its too late. We can only mitigate the scale of it.

This is the part just before the 2008 crash when people were saying what was about to happen, but everyone ignored. The accepted narrative now is that 'no one could have predicted the crash'. Except they could and they did. Its just that no one wanted to listen.

This is the part just before Iraq where thousands protested and were not listened to, because a politician had it in his head that it was the best option, but he had no real plan for what happened next.

This is the part when people said PFI was a spectactularly bad idea. But it kept being used over and over and over again by all political parties because it was politically easier in the short term.

Enjoy this Christmas.

Next year is going to be a rough old ride for a lot of people.

Mrs8 it’s on the 20th October in central London, there are some details on the People’s Vote website here: www.peoples-vote.uk/march.

I will be marching with DH and DD. We were there in June but this one is going to be bigger. Momentum is growing.

There's been a lot of talk about a united Ireland being a solution to the problems posed be Brexit. This short article from the Irish Times explains why people in the ROI might not be in favour of a united Ireland. www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/united-ireland-would-see-living-standards-in-republic-fall-by-15-1.3629748

The Irish reunification article is a bit one dimensional and assumes a status quo. The damage to the economy of both parts would be dwarfed by the damage of Brexit. There could be benefits from British people and businesses relocating. There was some resistance to Chancellor Kohl’s policy of allowing parity of the east and west German Deutschmark following reunification as it meant west Germany had to absorb all of the burden of the economic basket case that was east Germany. Fortunately Germans take a long term outlook and have vision. Somewhat lacking in us Brits.

The RoI could also do without the sectarian horrors that are endemic in the North. Who in their right mind would voluntarily embrace the DUP?

Re unification falters on economic( and cultural) dissonance between ROI and NI? Who's to know who might get up to mischief on the mainland under the fig leaf of sectarian activism, though.

Didn't the EU donate large grants to help with German reunification? I reckon they'd see a case to do so with Ireland, if that's what the people wanted to do.

DW and I are going on the march again. Last time felt big, but this promises to be far bigger. Have also persuaded a friend to come; actually, she asked us - she's never been on a demo before, never even been all that politically engaged, but feels she has to do her bit.

Don't really want another referendum, would prefer those spineless eejits in parliament to do their jobs properly, but don't see any alternative, as no deal is becoming the sickeningly likely outcome.

I would see the reunification of Ireland as a 'political' problem only.
The economic aspect is largely 'just money' and I am pretty sure the EU would manage a financial fudge of some sort so that the South does not lose out (the claimed 15%). With the reports that there is still continuing 'unpleasantness' it would be interesting to know from experts whether this would reduce or get worse.
I believe I am right in saying that the rise of the far right in Germany and it's support is principally from the East.
Many people have a simplistic and 'purist' view of how the world works. It is actually damn complicated and there are a lot of shady goings on that only become apparent many tens of years afterwards. Is it 30 or 50 years for some of UK dealings to be taken off the 'secret' list?

Over the years, the EU have donated a lot to NI and the border areas of the RoI
If there were a united Ireland, I'd expect them to significantly increase the amount - 450 million could take on the kind of subsidy that 64 million in Britain pay now

Also, Britain would normally be expected to continue paying a reduced amount, as part of any settlement, particularly seen as compensation for buggering up the country over centuries of oppression and misrule.

It does highlight the huge subsidies per head that NI has received for decades, that the general public are aware of.
Strange that the Tory rightwing have never added the province to their list of "scroungers"; that we don't hear the kind of complaints from English Nationalists that we hear about what Scotland supposedly receives

Even before the Troubles, it was clear that Partition was very bad for the NI economy:

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/demographics-are-shifting-towards-a-united-ireland-we-must-have-a-plan-35865222.html

In 1920, "80% of the industrial output of the entire island of Ireland came from the three counties centred on Belfast.
This was where all Irish industry was.
It was industrial and innovative;

Having been a fraction of the North’s at independence, the Republic’s industrial output is now ten times greater than that of Northern Ireland.
Exports from the Republic are €89bn (£77.85bn) while from Northern Ireland, exports are a paltry €6bn (£5.25bn).
...
the Republic’s budget deficit is 1% of GDP.
If Northern Ireland had to pay for itself tomorrow, the budget deficit would be about 22% of GDP!"

Ripping a country in two made the much smaller part wither away economically.
Maybe Partition made the Unionists who controlled NI concentrate all their bloody planning and energy on keeping down the Catholics and keeping themselves separate from the rest of Ireland

@Motheroffourdragons

Its a good policy, i want Brexit dropped and this is possibly the only way it might happen.
How could Labour be so irresponsible as to vote for a deal where we'd be so much worse off?

May cannot leave with no-deal, all those technical papers show what would happen :(

It would mean the end of the Tory party.

The earlier discussion on hubris, nemesis and catharsis resonated with me.

I still feel torn about hoping that Brexit and the already here ensuing clusterfuck will bring about Scottish independence more quickly and not wanting the poorest and most vulnerable in England to suffer under the "utopia" sought by the likes of JRM and Patrick Minford

But maybe the boil of the ERG and UKIP needs to be lanced with a dose of reality of life as a 3rd country without the faded Empire

May in her Panorama interview saying that the Chequers deal is the only way to stop the carve up of the UK (as reported in the R2 news this morning) is good news for Scottish independence, given that the EU have already said that they won't agree to its cherry picking

Blatant 🐟🎣👑

Strange that the Tory rightwing have never added the province to their list of "scroungers"; that we don't hear the kind of complaints from English Nationalists that we hear about what Scotland supposedly receives
Exactly bigchoc . Colonialisation is expensive. ROI does not have the cash or inclination to clear up england's messes. Brexit is going to hit ROI industry hard enough already.

Germany has almost entirely funded unification itself, via a hefty "solidarity tax" - added to everyone's income tax - that is still charged and will last decades more.
Germany is wealthy enough to afford this, but the general economic drag hit the West hard for several years
(which to some extent helped increase neo-Nazi sentiment there, even though nationalists of course alway supported unification)

The AfD was originally a very small party founded by right of centre mc in the West, to keep the DM - I was working in Germany at the time and I remember it was thought a harmless, slightly comic, bunch of academics for a ew years after it was formed.

However, it was later infiltrated by the neo-Nazis and taken over - years before the refugee crisis - by those opposing past Muslim immigration.
The former East, crippled economically and politically by several decades of USSR dictatorship, is the AfD powerhouse.
They have little nostalgia for the DM, since they only had it for a few years before the Euro, don't want the economic hit of leaving the EU and aren't concerned with FOM for Europeans.

This short article from the Irish Times explains why people in the ROI might not be in favour of a united Ireland

It would be a grim humour if after fighting, taking and above all singing about this misty-eyed vision of reunification it turned out the ROI didn't want it, and rejected it in a vote. If nothing else it would make Sinn Fein redundant, and pretty much make the DUP "correct"

If nothing else, Brexit is forcing a re-evaluation of some areas of long-held "truths" that are probably well overdue. And in the case of NI/ROI, maybe Brexit is the only thing that could have done it. If some, there may be the tiniest of crumbs of good in the entire shit banquet that is Brexit so far.

Economics are just one factor in Irish reunification.

Personally I don't think there's much political will in the ROI to unite with NI. I don't think people in ROI feel tremendous kinship or cultural connection with NI anymore. They don't want the hassle that reunification would inevitably involve.

Plus, they've put up with enough shit over brexit already and this would feel like the UK's incompetency forcing their hand.

I've mentioned the book "Internal Colonialism" by Michael Hechter before on these threads but even though dh studied it as part of his Geography degree back in c1980, it's becoming ever more relevant. The "Celtic fringe" is all that is left of The Empire and as such, is being clung on to for dear life to maintain the illusion that the UK is still a world power

Internal Colonialism: The Celtic Fringe in British National Development https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/0765804751/ref=cmswrcpapi_bMHNBbCDXKVZ4

Personally I don't think there's much political will in the ROI to unite with Ni.
See James Joyce's 100 year old portrayal of The Citizen in Ulysees, based on The Cyclops < and inspiration for Jeremy Corbyn and so many other Leaders >

prettybird I've swung round somewhat to your optimism of Scottish independence, if Scotland is in any position to mitigate what's coming down the line with a No Deal. I'm v concerend about real/ incited sectarian activities helped along by Sputnik and RT in Edinburgh.
I'll check that book out.

The article I referenced is from the business section of the Irish Times and its primary focus is the economic consequences of a united Ireland. There are also huge fears of violence from the Loyalist/Unionist hardline groups who would be wholly opposed to a united Ireland. And would be very bitter about being coerced into a united Ireland.

Then there are a whole range of practical issues which would need to be resolved. For example, we don't have an NHS in the ROI. Health care is means tested. If you're on benefits or earn a low wage, you will probably qualify for a medical card or GP card. But if you earn an average to high income, you have to pay for all medical treatments. Do we tell the citizens of NI that they have to pay for medical care going forward? Or do we extend free medical care to all citizens in the ROI? Which would come at a significant cost.

There are also huge differences in our education system. The state exams in the ROI are the Junior Certificate (at age 15/16) and the Leaving Certificate (at age 17/18). It's a very broad curriculum. Pupils study nine or ten subjects for the Junior Certificate and drop down to seven subjects for the Leaving Certificate. My understanding is that you specialize in the UK and take only three subjects for your final exams. Which education system do we adopt in a united Ireland? Irish (Gaeilge) is a compulsory subject here right up to Leaving Certificate level. Do you think Unionists would want their children learning Irish at school? If the will of the people was there, you could resolve these issues although it would probably involve a fair amount of compromise. But if the will of the people isn't there, these issues might well prove intractable.

Posters blithely proposing a united Ireland as a solution to Brexit really haven't a clue.

Taytocrisps Great post. Thank you.
Ages ago, I was interested that v clever Connemarra boyfriend of sister had absolutely no truck with re unification and nationalism.
Nuance and pragmatism is lost in so much of this mess.

I've swung round somewhat to your optimism of Scottish independence,

Whilst it would be outrageous if other countries around the world (including the EU) were to try and subvert British sovereignty, it's quite possible a gentle nudge from outside could advance the cause. Only siting any factories or businesses in Scotland, for a start

Over the years Britain has espoused independence for smaller countries from larger regimes (especially during the cold war), so has less moral high ground if Russia were to suggest Scotland had the right to be independent (which I can see Putin mischievously doing).

Interesting times.

Posters blithely proposing a united Ireland as a solution to Brexit really haven't a clue.

That would be Brexiteers then. I don't think a single remainer on this thread as suggested a united Ireland, but more pointed out it's not an easy solution - backing your views.