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Brexit

Westministenders: A Pickling Summer

983 replies

RedToothBrush · 18/07/2018 22:55

May has survived. The Turd Way has survived.

Whether this is true is another matter. The Turd Way was hijacked by the ERG who ripped it up and turned it from being a starting point to another ridiculous declaration of believing in Royal Unicorns. Rees-Smug has declared May LINO (Leader in Name Only) in tribute to BINO (Brexit in Name Only).

No one yet has grasped the consequences for NI. The backstop was absent from the White Paper except to say, it would never be used.

Johnson also in his commons resignation statement lives in a fantasy land, saying we had 2 and half years to get something in place for the Irish border. Except we don't because we don't have an agreed plan, we haven't hired the people to do it, there is no guarentee the way we are going that we will get a transition agreement agreed to afterall; its entirely dependent on us meeting certain criteria.

Even the Irish themselves haven't got to the point of admitting the possibility that there will be an Irish Border. Under WTO rules, members are legally required to secure their borders. If we are separate members to the EU we have to secure our border and they have to secure their border. In theory NI could be a separate member to the rest of the UK but this would breech the priniciple of a border in the Irish Sea.

No Deal has moved from being an option to being a distinct possibility.

The Trade Bill passed through the Commons unscathed with a dodgy pairing, the assistance of Labour rebels and the brewery tour organising skills of the LD and Labour whips despite the best efforts of Tory Rebels. It suggests the ERG have the numbers to force things but there still are no guarentees of anything.

We've had calls from Justine Greening for another referendum; despite it being obvious that the laws on referendums being ridiculously weak and just about everyone ignoring the findings of the electoral commision and the Leave Campaign's referal to the police. Even then the maximum penalties are wholly inadequate to prevent and deter electoral rigging.

We've had calls for a cross party government of National Unity. Which has been dismissed by Corbyn as an attempt at an establishment stitch up.

We've had the former Head of DexEu (the department who have refused the most FOI requests) and various ERG backbenchers (who said that publication of documents would damage the governments negotiations) ask for transparency and for draft DexEu documents to be published.

Ian Paisley Jr appears likely to be suspended from sitting in the HoC from 4th September for a month for breeching parliamentary standards, losing May one vital vote. She has however been bolstered by the resignation of John Woodcock from the Labour Party pledging his ongoing support of Brexit (he's been a Labour Rebel in the past). Plus there is the O'Mara Factor whereby the whole country could be at the mercy of whether Jared can be fucked to turn up to work at all or not.

There are growing signs out there for increasing support for EEA though despite it all.

The Trade Bill now goes to the Lords, where there is suggestion they might throw it out, after the Speaker declared they had the power to do so as it was a Supply Bill rather than a Money Bill thanks to the Amendments the ERG supplied.

All the while jobs are lost and companies are abandoning the UK and NI has had the most violence in years, but no one cares because Brexit means Brexit and its all worth it.

And finally, when being questioned by the Liason Select Committee, May said that 70 Technical Notices for Households and Businesses in the Event of No Deal would be published in August and September.

The country is in a total pickle.

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54321go · 24/07/2018 16:30

Bit late, attempting to do a little work, but surely Brexit is female on the grounds that ships are referred to as 'she' and we are definitely all at sea.
Other large objects that are 'difficult to move' also tend to be female too.
Can't see any likeness myself though.

DGRossetti · 24/07/2018 16:34

Tell me, is this good news or bad news?!

  1. why have a dog, and bark yourself ?
  2. maybe harder for the ERG side of the equation to interpose themselves between Brexit Minister and PM ?

The problem is, I'm genuinely starting to not care. I don't think anything that happens in the UK between now and March 29 will divert the enormous mass that is careering downhill. It's like trying to use a toothpick to fend of a tsunami.

Remember, when the Titanic sank, it was only apparent to most survivors how bad it was when they were off the doomed ship, and could look back and see it going arse up.

I wonder how many people need to leave the UK before it really bites on landlords ? And will it be sudden, or a slow torture ?

For those that like other peoples pain, a decrease in renters is a double whammy for buy-to-let, as it tends to decrease house prices, as some landlords sell up.

As always, London will distort the picture. You'd need to look elsewhere ...

DGRossetti · 24/07/2018 16:36

Bit late, attempting to do a little work, but surely Brexit is female on the grounds that ships are referred to as 'she' and we are definitely all at sea.

But that's an affectation of the English language, which has no gender, not an inbuilt feature of it's structure. (Vaguely hears mutterings from school about split infinitives).

DGRossetti · 24/07/2018 16:36

oops, forgot Smile

RedToothBrush · 24/07/2018 16:37

William James @ wjames_reuters
"There is no tension between us, I think that's clear," says Raab, tilting his head at Olly Robbins without making eye contact. #Brexit

Steve Bullock @ guitarmoog
This should have been clear from the start. Absurd that it wasn’t. DExEU no longer lead on negotiations, only on domestic preparations. Raab deputising for PM in negotiations, but lead official (Robbins) reporting to PM, not Raab. 1/
Message is that if Raab goes off-piste again, EU27 should ignore it unless his line is confirmed by PM or Robbins. 2/
Questions arises if DExEU’s remit is now primarily domestic, why would UKRep in Brussels remain attached to it. Surely should be attached to Cabinet Office or returned to FCO (prob the former). 3/
This clarity really should have been there from the start. Might have avoided some of the loss of goodwill and trust that Davis’s pronouncements often brought (e.g. rolling back on commitments just after agreeing them), and that Raab’s already have (divorce bill) 4/
Noteable that EU27 gave similar clarity on this on their side 2 years ago. 5/5
t.co/09SeBE78md

So this was about Rash going on about refusing to pay the divorce settlement. And the real reason Davis quit.

David Allen Green @ DavidAllengreen
So: all that parliamentary time and conflict and bad feeling to force through 29 March 2019 as the actual Brexit day with repeal of the 1972 Act was...

...a waste of time and effort.

What an utter shambles.

Challenge anyone who has been following brexit closely not to laugh aloud while reading paragraph 60 of today's White Paper.

An admission that HMG wrong to insist on 29 March 2019 as repeal day in Withdrawal Act.

An entirely foreseeable problem, caused by ministers' idiocy.

Please note that the legal technical term "saving provision" means the saving of ministers' careers and of the government majority.

I'm sure there were amendments which were rejected by government to do exactly this too.

My gut feeling is that Brexiteers will have a public shit fit about this, but Raab must have known when he took the job, cos it was known, that day that Robbins was taking half his staff. And the Brexiteers must have been living under a rock if they also were not aware (this is entirely possible).

I think this makes Brexit more viable from a practical point of view but from a political one, it's only a matter of time before the ERG try and squash this one too. Sensible leavers should support it (and my gut is that's who May is playing to within her party and also on the Labour benches). It's an entirely sensible and much needed change.

That's the good bit

The bad bit is the inevitable Rees Moog tantrum.

Westministenders: A Pickling Summer
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RedToothBrush · 24/07/2018 16:41

Oh and this.

Jim Pickard @ pickardJe
Raab has just confirmed that there will have to be food stockpiling for a hard Brexit, although he emphasises it would mainly be done by industry rather than government
this is a hitherto not well-understood element of no-deal contingency planning - the onus would be to a large degree on pharma companies, petrol distributors and food suppliers to keep goods flowing
none of this means we'll be going back to wearing animal skins and living in turf homes, let's keep this in perspective please

That's the government washing its hands of looking after people and trying to outsource it's responsibility then...

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RedToothBrush · 24/07/2018 16:43

Siobhan Fenton @ Siobhanfenton
Breaking- The DUP has suspended Ian Paisley from party membership

The DUP are trying to kick him out?

This is just to get another one of their clowns in isn't it?

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RedToothBrush · 24/07/2018 16:45

www.politico.eu/article/germany-to-help-brits-stay-eu-citizens-during-brexit-transition-period/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Germany to help Brits stay EU citizens during Brexit transition period

If passed, the law would treat the U.K. legally as an EU member until the final day of the transition, with any Brits who apply for a German passport before the end of the period to be treated as EU nationals. That will enable them to keep both their British passport and their new, EU one, despite the fact Germany generally doesn’t allow dual citizenship.

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DGRossetti · 24/07/2018 16:46

Raab has just confirmed that there will have to be food stockpiling for a hard Brexit, although he emphasises it would mainly be done by industry rather than government

be curious as to what industry says, since industry overwhelmingly doesn't want Brexit.

Hopefully, they'll astound No. 10 by managing to have a meeting and a statement in a little less than 1/5th of a decade and say Get stuffed

Or will more magic money be needed ?

DGRossetti · 24/07/2018 16:47

Are native Germans happy to help shit-kicked Brits ?

RedToothBrush · 24/07/2018 16:47

Allie Renison @ allierenison
What a nonsensical line in Corbyn's speech about Govt putting City ahead of manufacturing in Brexit negs. She's actually foregoing passporting and EU market access for fin servs while making the latter top priority for goods by prioritising reg. alignment with SM product rules

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RedToothBrush · 24/07/2018 16:50

The Columnist @ Sime0nStylites
Interesting that Raab just referred to October as the point at which we would know if there would be No Deal (vs midnight on the last day of A50...).
Weirdly, this is a good thing. Better to have the crisis while we’re still part of the EU.
That’s what he said. I assume he means that the October ‘checkpoint’ isn’t achieved.
Yes indeed but it was an interesting little moment (contrast vs DD)

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DGRossetti · 24/07/2018 16:53

So from now on, every penny price increase on food can be attributed to Brexit ?

RedToothBrush · 24/07/2018 16:53

amp.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/24/gibraltar-spain-vents-frustration-with-uk-in-brexit-talks?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true
Gibraltar: Spain warns UK over 'cliff-edge' Brexit
Madrid complains that talks with the UK over Rock’s future are ‘not going anywhere’

Spain has warned the British government that a “cliff-edge” Brexit must be avoided for Gibraltar, with negotiations over the future of the Rock said to be stalling.

The outcome of talks between Spain and the UK over the future of the British overseas territory will determine whether its residents enjoy the benefits of the transition period after Brexit, in which the UK will stay in the customs union and single market for an additional 21 months.

The other 26 member states were given a veto in April 2017 when the EU published its guidelines on the Brexit negotiations.

Madrid has maintained that veto over the last 15 months. Its minister, in a meeting last Friday with the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, along with the other EU member states, made a prolonged intervention on the issue.

Transition period depends on EU approval. Ireland was the main stumbling block, but also appears Gibraltar is providing problematic too.

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DGRossetti · 24/07/2018 16:54

Brexiteers are quiet (looks at "the other place" Hmm). Where's the Mexican wave of sunny uplands and unicorns ?

RedToothBrush · 24/07/2018 16:58

Paul Waugh @ paulwaugh
Woah. Tory MP Craig Mackinlay just asked Olly Robbins if there had been a 'quiet coup d'etat' against Dexeu.

FFS. As expected.

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DGRossetti · 24/07/2018 16:59

Transition period depends on EU approval. Ireland was the main stumbling block, but also appears Gibraltar is providing problematic too

I'm sure there are others ... you don't get to be the UK without having a long and illustrious history with goodness knows what metaphorical skeletons in cupboards. Some trivial. Some less so. And potentially some insoluble without an act of parliament. Like the fact that Berwick on Tweed was at war with Russia for over 100 years (without anyone realising). Or that WW2 only "ended" in 1991...

RedToothBrush · 24/07/2018 16:59

So from now on, every penny price increase on food can be attributed to Brexit ?

Yes. Every one. It's government policy.

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DGRossetti · 24/07/2018 17:00

Chaos ! Bring it on. We need more, much more. It's the only thing that will wake some people up.

prettybird · 24/07/2018 17:00

It's "our" fault they've stopped posting because we keep on asking awkward pesky questions and Shock expecting answers Shock

Peregrina · 24/07/2018 17:04

Is this another May fudge? If she extends everything until December 2020, despite saying that the day of 29 March 2019 is fixed, does she think that we still won't need customs deals, aviation deals, Euratom deals etc. etc. etc.? 'Nothing has changed' she will declare, but as far as the EU is concerned, it will have changed, we will be out of the EU and they will have no need to reciprocate.

As for May's ability to negotiate !!! Ha, ha. Barking at people is not negotiation.

PineappleSunrise · 24/07/2018 17:05

Oh I don't dunno. I don't need answers, I just would just like to see some evidence that people are reading serious analysis and are starting to be aware of some of the damned ISSUES that need to be solved to make Brexit successful.

DGRossetti · 24/07/2018 17:09

I just would just like to see some evidence that people are reading serious analysis and are starting to be aware of some of the damned ISSUES that need to be solved to make Brexit successful.

And have you ? And if not, who do you consider culpable ? (Notice how I imply the answer to the first question in my second ....)

Peregrina · 24/07/2018 17:11

Do we need surferjet and co. We know the answer.
It was:
"You, & C4 news, need to respect the vote of the British people or shut the fuck up"

PineappleSunrise · 24/07/2018 17:12

Nope. Still just soundbites and feelings.