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Brexit

Westministenders: A Pickling Summer

983 replies

RedToothBrush · 18/07/2018 22:55

May has survived. The Turd Way has survived.

Whether this is true is another matter. The Turd Way was hijacked by the ERG who ripped it up and turned it from being a starting point to another ridiculous declaration of believing in Royal Unicorns. Rees-Smug has declared May LINO (Leader in Name Only) in tribute to BINO (Brexit in Name Only).

No one yet has grasped the consequences for NI. The backstop was absent from the White Paper except to say, it would never be used.

Johnson also in his commons resignation statement lives in a fantasy land, saying we had 2 and half years to get something in place for the Irish border. Except we don't because we don't have an agreed plan, we haven't hired the people to do it, there is no guarentee the way we are going that we will get a transition agreement agreed to afterall; its entirely dependent on us meeting certain criteria.

Even the Irish themselves haven't got to the point of admitting the possibility that there will be an Irish Border. Under WTO rules, members are legally required to secure their borders. If we are separate members to the EU we have to secure our border and they have to secure their border. In theory NI could be a separate member to the rest of the UK but this would breech the priniciple of a border in the Irish Sea.

No Deal has moved from being an option to being a distinct possibility.

The Trade Bill passed through the Commons unscathed with a dodgy pairing, the assistance of Labour rebels and the brewery tour organising skills of the LD and Labour whips despite the best efforts of Tory Rebels. It suggests the ERG have the numbers to force things but there still are no guarentees of anything.

We've had calls from Justine Greening for another referendum; despite it being obvious that the laws on referendums being ridiculously weak and just about everyone ignoring the findings of the electoral commision and the Leave Campaign's referal to the police. Even then the maximum penalties are wholly inadequate to prevent and deter electoral rigging.

We've had calls for a cross party government of National Unity. Which has been dismissed by Corbyn as an attempt at an establishment stitch up.

We've had the former Head of DexEu (the department who have refused the most FOI requests) and various ERG backbenchers (who said that publication of documents would damage the governments negotiations) ask for transparency and for draft DexEu documents to be published.

Ian Paisley Jr appears likely to be suspended from sitting in the HoC from 4th September for a month for breeching parliamentary standards, losing May one vital vote. She has however been bolstered by the resignation of John Woodcock from the Labour Party pledging his ongoing support of Brexit (he's been a Labour Rebel in the past). Plus there is the O'Mara Factor whereby the whole country could be at the mercy of whether Jared can be fucked to turn up to work at all or not.

There are growing signs out there for increasing support for EEA though despite it all.

The Trade Bill now goes to the Lords, where there is suggestion they might throw it out, after the Speaker declared they had the power to do so as it was a Supply Bill rather than a Money Bill thanks to the Amendments the ERG supplied.

All the while jobs are lost and companies are abandoning the UK and NI has had the most violence in years, but no one cares because Brexit means Brexit and its all worth it.

And finally, when being questioned by the Liason Select Committee, May said that 70 Technical Notices for Households and Businesses in the Event of No Deal would be published in August and September.

The country is in a total pickle.

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Motheroffourdragons · 24/07/2018 13:44

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

HermioneGoesBackHome · 24/07/2018 13:47

So if they mess it up so much there is no agreement at all, no plane and no boat can cone into the U.K. or leave..

How on Earth is the uk suppose to survive that?

Which means that they have no other choice than finding some solution to the Brexit puzzle, whatever it would be.
And I assume also at least a transition period?

ElenaGreco123 · 24/07/2018 13:55

Sky News understands ministers will scrap the European Communities Act (ECA) but "save" its "effect" for the transition period. news.sky.com/story/law-keeping-uk-in-eu-will-continue-to-apply-after-brexit-11447180

54321go · 24/07/2018 13:57

Damn, a weekend of not much happening now pages to catch up on!
I did not know it was Irish oak (but I presume there was at least some English too) but the relevance being that like usual they didn't reinvest (replant) to provide for the future.

DGRossetti · 24/07/2018 14:18

More pesky human rights. Tempting to post this in AIBU as "...to be glad when we've got rid of human rights" and see the shitstorm reaction. Just for lolz, could also have a sweepstakes on how many posts before

(a) Immigration
(b) "Europe"/"EU"/"Brussels"
(c) Eastern Europeans
(d) tommy Robinson

get mentioned ...

I'd guess .... 12, 4, 15 and 27

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44939169

A woman sexually abused by her stepfather from the age of four has won a landmark case against the "same roof" rule, which denied her the right to compensation.

Under the rule, victims who lived in the same home as their attacker before 1979 were not entitled to damages.

Court of Appeal decided the rule was incompatible with human rights laws.

(contd)

54321go · 24/07/2018 14:21

@DGR, go on, post as that.
Maybe a daily rag will pick it up and run with it. At this point any news is news.

OlennasWimple · 24/07/2018 14:21

Has anyone seen a sensible (ie not scare mongering but not "la la la, the unicorns will save us all" stuff) table setting out the likely impact of a No Deal Brexit immediately / in the first two weeks / the first month / the first six months?

For example, I can see that on Day 1 air traffic control will grind to a halt but that this will be resolved in some fashion within six months; there won't be a shortage of asthma medicine on Day 1, but within 6 months it's quite possible that certain brands will be unavailable on the NHS

Mrsr8 · 24/07/2018 14:22

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

54321go · 24/07/2018 14:27

@Olennas
I would expect that to be far too fine a detail for the current state of 'play'. They can't even decide whether to have a second vote.
As your request is so specific, maybe speak to your doctor now to find out if alternative brands/strengths could be substituted if your prescribed version is not available. I am speculating here that a more 'generic' version at a different dose may be a 'stopgap' in emergency.

DGRossetti · 24/07/2018 14:28

Olenna...some meds are already unavailable.

And generally most aren't suitable for stockpiling ... they break down pretty quickly.

OlennasWimple · 24/07/2018 14:29

DGR - in other "good news" - apparently after Brexit we will be able to send ISIL terrorists to the electric chair. Yay! So progressive! #takingbackcontrol

Sad
DGRossetti · 24/07/2018 14:35

54321go

probably best not to .. it's dangerously close to trolling, and might get hit with the infamous MNHQ banhammer of arbitrariness.

What I should have done is posted it before announcing it here, with some sort of timestamped cryptographic proof of my predictions.

So off topic as to be in another universe, but I did have a business idea for establishing a load of major-name retailers into a sort of Bet365 consortium, whereby customers could place a bet with the retailer about a specific shitty experience from their stores. The retailer then either lets the bet stand publically, or takes the bet, and removes if from the ( very ) public rankings. If the customers expectation is met, the retailer pays out. If the retailer manages to confound the customers expectation, the customers stake goes to the retailer.

I could live off Sainsburys alone, with that.

but back to that thread ... you could probably have an educated guess at which posters would bring up Immigration etc ....

OlennasWimple · 24/07/2018 14:36

54321 - thanks for your suggestion - I'm not in the UK, though (or asthmatic, happily).

I'm trying to work out whether we should be returning the UK to live (and if so when) or if we should be keeping well away while everything implodes

But the thought of not being able to get a plane should, heaven forfend, something happen to one of my family..... Sad

One of my favourite post-apocalyptic books is Station Eleven, which focuses on the post-post-apocalypse, not the immediate aftermath of the disaster. Because that medium term can be the hardest: it's possible to get through a short term problem with some prepping, modest rationing and Blitz spirit. The longer term is also different, because people become accustomed to the limitations. The medium term is the very painful bit, particularly where there's no sense of a light at the end of the tunnel. I don't know if anyone has really worked through what the short / medium / long term scenarios look like in Brexitland, both in terms of timescale and impact on the woman on the Clapham Omnibus

SusanWalker · 24/07/2018 14:40

One of my sons meds comes from Ireland. The other is a special which is made up just for him and then sent to our pharmacy. I have no idea where the ingredients for that come from. Camhs are very careful about the prescriptions and will not issue any until a couple of days before we run out. I will have to try and persuade them to give me a double prescription in March if it looks like no deal.

The inhalers I'm not so worried about. It's such a widespread medicine that I think it will be one they stock up on. Also I can shorten the time between ordering repeats and build up a small excess.

I was looking at my antihistamines and they're from Europe so I'm going to get in four months worth, mainly because dd has to take one every day over the pollen season as it affects her asthma quite badly. The last thing I want to do is end up in A and E soon after we crash out. I imagine it to be like the winter crisis on steroids. Especially if there's civil unrest and a rise in crime.

Peregrina · 24/07/2018 14:44

John Redwood has categorically assured us that planes will be allowed to fly.

I can envisage that some expensive deal will be cobbled together at the last moment, and then the Leavers will be gloating about y2k again.

DGRossetti · 24/07/2018 14:49

Electric chair is a bit grim, really. I'd rather go by long drop hanging, or guillotine first. I guess there are even worse ways - being sawn (slowly) in half isn't my idea of fun. Hopefully economics make boiling in oil unlikely (which was how the patron saint of my DFs town went. We saw the 4-yearly parade on holiday as kids). I think Henry VIII had a flirtation with boiling and griddling alive - probably cheaper.

Mind you, if we become rabidly anti-Europe, the guillotine (used far more by the Nazis, by the way) is unlikely. As would be the more creative Roman methods.

The ideal would be asphyxiation with nitrogen. But as several fans of the death penalty have noted it's all bit too painless.

Maybe there's a Lloyd-Webber spin here ? How do you solve a problem like judicial murder ? could become Saturday night viewing for all the family. Especially that of the condemned. Perhaps a merchandising tie-in ?

London Underground could reintroduce the "drop-off special" (literally) for public executions. (Because we all know that in 1868, when the last public execution in the UK happened, London Underground ran special tube services for it Shock ). It could become a school trip.

DGRossetti · 24/07/2018 14:51

Presumably even private planes won't be able to fly. That might concentrate some minds.

Being a (proud) civvy, I haven't the faintest idea how military airspace might work ? The idea that even the RAF are grounded hasn't been floated yet, so here I am - floating it.

54321go · 24/07/2018 15:09

I presume the military would be able to fly as it would be an 'emergency', so putting the blue flashing light on (or equivalent). Interesting that RAF Scampton is to be sold off (home to the red arrows) which also has air traffic control facilities (presumably military).

Mrsr8 · 24/07/2018 15:12

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Message withdrawn at poster's request.

DGRossetti · 24/07/2018 15:20

If a deal is cobbled together at the last minute then the UK will have to pay a lot

The UK has already agreed that it will have to pay for Brexit expenses to the EU27/EU. That's if it wants to continue trading.

Mrsr8 · 24/07/2018 15:22

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Mrsr8 · 24/07/2018 15:22

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PineappleSunrise · 24/07/2018 15:26

Has he gone too far off-piste already, or something?

Mrsr8 · 24/07/2018 15:28

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Tanith · 24/07/2018 15:33

"John Redwood has categorically assured us that planes will be allowed to fly. "

For some reason, I don't find that at all reassuring!