Where do you realistically think we go from here?

[Bearbehind]

So Amber Rudd says 'no deal is unthinkable' and David Davis says the opposite.

DD also says we'd only agree to a transition period if the terms of our deal were known before hand.

The EU are still insisting the 3 priorities are addressed before talks can move to trade so basically we're at a stand off.

Something has to give at some point.

Regardless of what you want to happen, what do you think will actually happen.

I think we will walk away from the talks, all hell will break loose when the repercussions of that come to the fore and we'll end up staying in the EU in some capacity but in a much weaker position than before.

Well Ylva - that attitude is just what I mean. Britain has loads to offer. We will be the EU's biggest export country when we leave for a start so you would think they would warrant a decent trade deal. Considering the other countries they have a free trade deal with.

Also you mention money - well I would think they would want to negotiate a decent deal with us so that we pay them as much as possible. But then of course we are only poor little old Britain and anyone who suggests otherwise is 'Bigging up Britain' which of course we really mustn't do.

We will be the EU's biggest export country when we leave for a start

Which is exactly why we are on the back foot.

We need them more than they need us.

They can absorb any reduced exports across 27 countries, albeit not equally.

Where the feck are we going to find an alternative place to import that kind of volume from?

That's the wrong attitude, bear.

If you would only think positive you'd realise the eu need us far more than we need them.

So as their biggest trading partner we will be on the back foot!!!

Where do you realistically think we go from here?
Cancel it. Watch the pound soar. Economy will race up. Cancel UC. Keep the NHS. Re open the libraries. Have a street party.
And watch the trials.

The leaked paper re Germany considering trade deal in the Express now too Bear.
Still referencing Bloomberg though, no separate source.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/politics/868025/Brexit-news-leaked-paper-Germany-preparing-EU-trade-deal-Britain/amp

We can always sign the TTIP on steroids deal that the UK Government was ready to sign while other EU countries were being sensible blocking it

After all, I'm sure the US companies would love to buy up the NHS and be able to sue the government if it changes/implements policies that impact on their profits

Unfortunately TTIP is going to look good compared to the pennies we get from the fire sale of the NHS, education and other public services that we won't be able to afford. Selling off the family silver never get a good price, very good deal for the large global corporations waiting to pounce...who is really behind brexit I wonder!

In the mail now too.
I think it’s safe now to presume that it’s not fake news.

www.google.co.uk/amp/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4994802/amp/Germany-wants-comprehensive-free-trade-deal-UK.html

Has anyone actually read what the German Foreign Ministry is proposing? Note: not the German Government , nor even the Ministry responsible for German trade and businesses And it's a draft

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-16/germany-drafts-outline-of-eu-u-k-ties-post-brexit-paper-shows

(sorry, refuse to link to the Mail so have re-supplied the link to the earlier article in Bloomberg)

The UK media's interpretation of it all seems to be wishful thinking. The minimum areas don't necessarily include trade but are the minimum areas that need to be covered to allow basic economic & international relationships to continue: security/terrorism/justice; agriculture & fisheries; transport - especially "Open Skies" without which it is indeed the case that all commercial flights from the UK could be grounded ; research & data regulation - especially given this internet connected age

The last paragraph is particularly telling....

"In its paper, the ministry recommends that the free-trade deal should be “balanced, ambitious and far-reaching,” with the degree of access to the EU’s single market conditional on the extent to which the U.K. is prepared to adhere to regulatory norms. Even where the U.K. agrees to common rules, there can be no “cherry-picking” that gives the U.K. a competitive advantage, it said."

So no "having our cake and eating it". So no access to the Single Market without accepting FOM.

Even for the sake of German cars.

We will be the EU's biggest export country when we leave for a start so you would think they would warrant a decent trade deal
The two biggest aspects of this ate services and cars.
Services are looking like they are on the move to Frankfurt etc and there will be a redistribution of this across the EU.
Cars won't stay and are already not making investments in UK based firms.
Realism not optimism.

I'm living in the US and from sitting here the viewpoint of most is that Germany, Poland, Hungary and the Scandinavian countries need the EU to sign a deal. If the EU dont sign a deal its worse for these remaining member states than it is for the UK.

The other aspect of this is that all this talk of moving jobs to Europe is fluff. No one in Europe has the productivity of the Brits. This is why making sure we invest in education and keep our 'culture' of working hard is so important. Yes Brits aren't cheap but if you want a job done right and on time you hire a Brit to do it.

Personally I think the best thing the UK could do right now is take a big step back from the table and make plans to leave without them. Put a huge tariff on imports from EU states considered key to those EU states. So for Germany it would be a huge import tariff on cars. For Denmark any service (IT related is their main export) or Leto would get a huge massive tax. The only reason I wouldn't tax Amazon or eBay is because they are in Ireland and we need to maintain a good relationship with them.

Right now the UK neigotiations have no bite. The EU are calling the shots. I have no idea why this has been allowed by the Uk neigotiating team. The UK are net contributors. The EU should be trying quite a bit harder to make a deal. However why would they when they have the British government arguing over how many billion is owed. I would start with 'Nothing gets paid until we have a deal. You want £30bn. Well you get nothing until we have a trade agreement.' You then walk away from the table and let them come back to you.

Only they wouldn't come back to us, Want2b. And the ramifications for Britain and the north of Ireland would be immense.

You'd be okay over there in the USA, of course. Funny that those who won't be plunged into living in the middle of the resumption of the troubles are so relaxed about it.

Yes Brits aren't cheap but if you want a job done right and on time you hire a Brit to do it.

And I don't know whether I'm more amused or appalled at this jingoistic nonsense.
Those of us who aren't British are worse at doing oir jobs?

our

Has anyone actually read what the German Foreign Ministry is proposing?

Yes.

It’s saying that Germany is open to a trade deal.
Which is a shift on the absolute nein that has been reported over the last month or so.

Clearly there is no single market membership on the table - I’m not entirely sure why you think the U.K. is asking for that tbh - TM has made it perfectly clear that it’s not an option because the four freedoms are indivisible & UK accepts that.

But access to various aspects are not full membership.

The reason the leaked paper is interesting is because it is part of a series of indications that Michele Barnier’s straight jacket may be loosened now.

Surely all this angst is so unnecessary.

What is the benefit of leaving, I ask you all?

Be honest now. And lay it out.

The other aspect of this is that all this talk of moving jobs to Europe is fluff. No one in Europe has the productivity of the Brits

Your post lost all credibility after this.

www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/21/productivity-crisis-uk-real-wage-growth

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/10/17/oecd-pokes-holes-conservative-economic-plans-says-hammond/

Guardian and Telegraph for balance

FKN Brits with their jingoistic mindset. The EU is laffin at ya.

It will not end well.

Somerville, that is the beauty of British culture. For centuries foreigners have come to the UK and settled. It was never an issue before because you had to be very wealthy/educated to move. Even today there is a different track for immigrants to the U.K. who are educated.

You seem to be insinuating that this is race related. It's not. Being British is a mindset that goes far far deeper than skin color. I've walked the trading floor in London, Frankfurt, HK and New York and I've walked through the back offices. We welcome those who come to the UK to join us and prosper. The US tries to do the same. The other countries don't. You can live and work in Germany your whole life and you won't ever be considered German. Same is true in Hk.

Also, the productivity crisis they are reporting is because of the exchange rate. As things stabilize, which they are already starting to, the productivity calculations will show an improvement. The evidence I look at is the onshoring of jobs. They tried to offshore and it hasn't worked. A lot move is moving back to the U.K. than most people realize. The time zone, law and favorable business environment make the UK extremely attractive. My employer set up an office in Europe. They could have picked Switzerland, Germany or Dublin. They picked London because of the time zone, the laws and more flights going there from other centers of business compared to Dublin.

Oh and I agree the EU are laughing at us. He neigotiating strategy used by the British has been plain awful. I can't help but think they want this to fail.

IIRC Want2besupermum, the productivity crisis started long before the referendum. Hasn't productivity flatlined since the last recession?

We welcome those who come to the UK to join us and prosper

You really haven't been living in the uk for the last year and a half, have you?

So as their biggest trading partner we will be on the back foot!!!

Yes.

I really don't get this insistence that this is our trump card.

We have more to lose if we don't have frictionless trade than the EU does.

Where else would we source our imports from?

How else can we replace our biggest export; financial services?

The EU would obviously prefer it if they didn't have to, but they could far more easily disperse our exports to other countries.

The no deal scenario is an empty threat so we need an agreement but I really can't see why the EU would concede when it is us who needs a deal the most.

We aren't offering anything that they could get elsewhere in the long run.

Donald Tusk's notes for today's summit include a comment about an update on the relocation of EU agencies from the UK to other member countries.

They are not sitting around thinking it'll all work out ok and we'll carry on as before; they are making plans to manage without us.

Nicely put want2bsupermum, you are correct.

Yes bubbles, you're right.