Where do you realistically think we go from here?

[Bearbehind]

So Amber Rudd says 'no deal is unthinkable' and David Davis says the opposite.

DD also says we'd only agree to a transition period if the terms of our deal were known before hand.

The EU are still insisting the 3 priorities are addressed before talks can move to trade so basically we're at a stand off.

Something has to give at some point.

Regardless of what you want to happen, what do you think will actually happen.

I think we will walk away from the talks, all hell will break loose when the repercussions of that come to the fore and we'll end up staying in the EU in some capacity but in a much weaker position than before.

I don't think the tories are fucked.

They ought to be, but they seem to be teflon coated.

what possible positive outcome could there be?

Right now the definition of positive seems to have sunk incredibly low and be anything better than Armageddon.

Interesting tweet from a Leaver on the WM thread here for anyone who doesn't venture there

No love for the EU Institutions, but Leavers like me need to accept #Brexit isn’t going well and has potential for catastrophe.
‘It’ll be alright on the night’ won’t wash. Entire sectors and millions of livelihoods are at stake.
No one who loses their job will give a monkeys about the ECJ and the budget. This is obvious but apparently escapes some Leavers.
Unless there’s a dramatic change of course - EEA/SM/CU/Euratom, no one with a grasp of reality can continue to support Leave.
Anyone who wants something in politics ‘at any cost’ may as well just join the Taliban. Too many Leavers are sounding like that.
So I’m out. I cannot support destroying an economy we’ve spent 40 years building.

If this sentiment is echoed by other Leavers, maybe there a chance 'positive' might be slightly better than outright disaster.

Maybe there will be enough backlash over the reality of Leaving that somehow it will be avoided- God knows how though.

I just think you are all so defeatist. We are in the throws of negotiations. It's a matter of who blinks first and the EU are not known for giving in easily but I do think we have a reasonable chance if everyone would just stop being so negative about it.

I do think we have a reasonable chance if everyone would just stop being so negative about it.

corcory I really don't see how not being negative is going to help.

We have no cards to play.

We are not serious about no deal because we have absolutely nothing in place to cope with that scenario.

What else can we do to unlock the stalemate?

I agree Corcory, we should all smile as we jump off that cliff.

Personally I feel negative because I am losing my job as a direct consequence of Brexit.

I could be more positive Corcory if there was a group of competent politicians in charge of negotiations. As it is, I think most people on this thread are realistic rather than defeatist.

Corcory
The only reason to be cheerful about brexit is senility or blissful ignorance..bignorance!

The question is: WHAT CAN BRITAIN OFFER the EU. From my armchair the answer is nothing that any other country can't offer ... except money that is paid as a membership fee.
This puts us in a weak position for negotiations...

Bearbehind

Which Leader said that?

Leaver, not leader, called Tim Neal, whoever he is?

A deal of some kind, at or around 31 March 2019.

I do think we have a reasonable chance if everyone would just stop being so negative about it.

If everyone were more positive it would be fine.

That's how some people think politics works.

Prediction: That is going to be the way to scapegoat people when it all goes tits up.

"Remainers were too negative that's why brexit was a fuck up"

I do think we have a reasonable chance if everyone would just stop being so negative about it.

If our government had some tangible plans for investing in the regions, say, instead of fighting among themselves, I would be prepared to support their initiatives. But since they are setting such a dismal example, I see no need to be positive.

Apparently the German govt are amenable to a deal:

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-16/germany-drafts-outline-of-eu-u-k-ties-post-brexit-paper-shows

Interesting article faith, seems a bit odd that it's 2 days old and hasn't been mentioned anywhere else though.

Surely if it's true at least the likes of the Daily Fail would have been all over it.

So I went on the Daily Mail website to check there was nothing there and found this completely unbiased example of reporting

Pretty much proves the point about everything being the nasty EU's fault for not giving us what we want rather that the fact it is actually all our fault for wanting to leave.

Bear, the Bloomberg article was reported on in the Sun 6 hours ago (can’t see anything else yet):

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.thesun.co.uk/news/4712451/boost-for-uk-as-leak-reveals-germany-is-keen-to-cut-a-brexit-deal-and-hungary-warns-eu-not-to-take-a-hard-line-on-talks/amp/

I think EEA would be acceptable to enough remainers and enough leavers to make it work. You have people on both sides who would hold out for their ideal, sure, but the referendum was close. Compromise seems the best way to reflect the actual result.

Polls like this can be astonishingly accurate at predicting future, if anyone is interested. If a good cross section of people are asked, anyway, which I don't pretend MN is. But we aren't wildly far off, either...

The majority view here is that we will either stay in EU after all (but on worse terms) or at least stay in single market (EEA type status).

Is anyone planning a street party or anything for March 2019?

Bearbehind

Sorry, I meant Leaver. I've not seen posts be him before I don't think. Some Leavers on here have nothing interesting to say apart from 'we won, you lost, har har' others are more thoughtful and actually have some reasoned and knowledgeable arguments. I think the first group will never change their mind.

The Leaver declaring 'I'm out' well what does that mean anyway?

It was a tweet fake, it's not from MN.

I was a bit at the 'I'm out' part too, however people can't change their vote so IMO the best outcome now is more Leavers saying this isn't what we voted for.

I predict I am going to get drunk. I also think a weak EEA Brexit deal is the most likely outcome - we consume one hell of a lot of goods from the EU and they will try to minimise the pain to their markets. That's about the only bright spot I can see. Our Government is a complete mess and I am wondering if we could quietly section it and get Merkel''s cabinet in to hash out the details with the Civil Service.

Brexit is going to make our crash out from the ERM look like Fresher's Week at this rate.

From what I have heard, leavers still want us to make our own laws, control our own borders and ensure we get places in schools and in the waiting room of the local Dr. They can't wait for "foreigners" who "take all our jobs" to go "home".

There are many who don't remotely engage with the economic problems that are occupying the thoughts of others. Therefore they haven't changed their minds at all. They either have enough money to not need to worry or they aren't bothered about economic consequences because they don't understand how economics works and how it affects their lives. 3% inflation might be telling them something, but it doesn't. Low value of the £ and no great surge in exports may also say something to them. Likewise lack of productivity and wages growth. Also firms looking to relocate to Ireland. Ditto our increasing national debt. None of this spells a good future.