Where do you realistically think we go from here?

[Bearbehind]

So Amber Rudd says 'no deal is unthinkable' and David Davis says the opposite.

DD also says we'd only agree to a transition period if the terms of our deal were known before hand.

The EU are still insisting the 3 priorities are addressed before talks can move to trade so basically we're at a stand off.

Something has to give at some point.

Regardless of what you want to happen, what do you think will actually happen.

I think we will walk away from the talks, all hell will break loose when the repercussions of that come to the fore and we'll end up staying in the EU in some capacity but in a much weaker position than before.

I was in Southern Spain recently. I met many ex pat pensioners.

After a lunch with some of them on a trip to Seville, I gently raised Brexit. They are not concerned at all. They believe that reciprocal arrangements will stay as it is in everyone's interests to do so.

Their major concern (for fixed income pensions) was the Sterling difference to the Euro. Naturally. No worries otherwise at all that I could see. That was September.

But it could be whistling past the graveyard who knows.

No we can't be sure about the S1 in the event of a no deal, but it wouldn't benefit either side to stop it. The decline in income from pensions because of the low pound is indeed the bigger worry.

fake interesting or rather terrifying reading.....

If this information has been known and actually properly given to people, I'm wonde ing how many people would have actually been happy to vote for Brexit...

Emily the government can state whatever it wants. It's not going to happen if the EU and in particular the EU parliament isnt approving it.
As it turns out, it seems that the uk has pissed them off big way...
So I wouldnt actually bank on things staying the same. At all.

If this information has been known and actually properly given to people, I'm wonde ing how many people would have actually been happy to vote for Brexit...

Except, I don't think Leave voters will believe it. The overwhelming view of economists was that Brexit would be bad for the economy, people dismissed this, post truth/anti expert is where we are now.

"Found this, claiming to be one of the leaked impact studies. "

Straight off the bat, no its not fakenamefornow, its from Georges dodgy dossier April 2016. Its been trashed.

Mother, have you had your question answered about health insurance? I agree with Emily, the existing system will remain in place, theres no reason whatsoever to remove it, and no reason for Spain to refuse payment. The top up insurance is an issue if you cant afford it, yes, but if you cant afford it now, and youre only alternative is NHS care back in the UK, (which I also thought was means tested, hence my differentiation between state pension retirees and 'private' pensions), why should a retiree expect more post brexit than pre.

Its back to your question about planning for 'costs'.

If the same arrangement is in place, the same costs apply. In return, either Spain pay for their ex-pats to receive NHS care, or quite simply, they dont receive NHS care. Theres no 'loss' on the other side of the balance sheet. (Of course Spanish ex-pats could take out their own private insurance and receive insured healthcare in the UK.)

Lewisthere,

"It's not going to happen if the EU and in particular the EU parliament isnt approving it."

You have to get to grips with what is in the power of the UK government. This constantly dismissing government assurances, in areas they absolutely have the authority and power to give assurances, is ridiculous. The UK doesnt have to ask the EU how it spends its money.

(If we'd remained, Id wager my house, that in 5 years, all EU member states will have to ask the EU how they can spend their money. The EU tax man is coming

No we can't be sure about the S1 in the event of a no deal, but it wouldn't benefit either side to stop it

There would need to be a "deal" to continue it, and it takes both parties to make a deal. Have the French and Spanish governments taken a position on this?

Not as far as I know Mistigri beyond the recent Spanish statement about wanting Brits to stay after Brexit. However as it is a reciprocal agreement and there are thousands of British pensioners retired in the EU and a tiny handful of EU pensioners going to live in the UK after retirement, I can't see that it is in the interests of EU countries to turn away the money. The S1 form is also used between EEA countries so not just full EU.
I think if people had to join the system of their host country post-Brexit then the payment to the Spanish system (the last time I checked) is not high and we, of course, would pay 8% of income over a threshold, to the French.

This is the cost in Spain. “The basic monthly fee is 60€ for the under 65s and 157€ for those aged 65 and above. However, prescriptions are not subsidised at this rate so you would pay 100% of prescription costs.”
This is pretty much the cost of our top-up insurance in France!

If there is continued EEA membership then it's a reasonable assumption it will continue. I was thinking specifically about "no deal".

As far as I know in France you pay your 8% on all earned income (don't know how it works for pensions though).

If we'd remained, Id wager my house, that in 5 years, all EU member states will have to ask the EU how they can spend their money. The EU tax man is coming

Absolute bollocks. We are 18 months into that 5 years and there's absolutely no indication that that will transpire.

I do love it how you tout these opinions as facts

I think you don't pay on pensions, but you are liable to CSG / CRDS. I have read that other income such as rental income is charged at 8%.
I think a no deal could lead to the end of S1, but I suspect pragmatism might win.

Tut tut Bear. 1/ Its not 'fact', Im offering a wager aka an opinion, and 2/ The wager is 5 years from now. Ill wager my house. Will you stand my bet? (This could suddenly get interesting on MN!)

One caveat, It would be null and void if the EU disintegrate. I assume by your response, you'd take my wager?

Emily that's what I suspected - that there are no provisions for pensioners to pay into the French healthcare system. So in the event of no deal I am not sure what happens. It seems to me that decisions would be made on a country by country basis because healthcare policy is determined locally. It sounds like it will be easier for pensioners in Spain than in France, because there is an established route into the system (going on what you say - I have no specific knowledge re Spain).

It's a very asymmetric problem because Spanish and French people in the UK are almost all accessing healthcare as of right (i.e. as legal UK residents) rather than under bilateral agreements. That's also true for many UK citizens in Europe of course (i.e. all those working and paying into local healthcare systems) but there are also substantial numbers of British retirees with no local healthcare rights.

"If there is continued EEA membership then it's a reasonable assumption it will continue"

TM has specifically stated, no EU no EEA, (at this stage) but it comes back to 'costs' Misti. Why would they refuse us paying these bills? Put another way, theyre selling healthcare to us, to a captive audience, Richard Branson would be jumping up and down with excitement if he landed a deal like that!

Ah, so the 5 year clock starts now?

Would you care to share the evidence that this is the direction the EU is heading?

Caroline, I'm not arguing for or against EEA, simply observing that it would make the healthcare question easier to solve.

Err... it's not 5 years, it's 2 years and we are 6 months into it.
Having another 3 yea transition period would only be possible with the agreement et of the EU or rather the EU parliament.....

Atm there is no assurance that we will have any tanistikn period at all.

lewis the 5 years is referring to carolines time frame for the EU member states all needing permission from the EU to spend there own money, not Brexit.

How much is your house worth? Caroline I might be quite interested in your wager. Sovereign states will need the EU permission to spend their own money? So governments would have to submit their budgets to the EU for approval, and the EU would have a veto?

Mistigri I think anyone who had lived here for five years in a regular fashion would still be entitled to PUMA. You can’t refuse people rights under your own rules just because those rules mean that they wouldn’t have to pay. They would have to be treated the same as French pensioners. I know of people who are in PUMA and don’t make a contribution, for example those who have worked here too long for the UK to remain their competent state and issue an S1 on retirement.
It does make accepting the S1 payment a bit of a no-brainer though. (So we will accept several million from the UK for their pensioners and pay a few thousand for ours who have retired to the UK).

Emily, yes I think those with over 5 years' residence would qualify for permanent residence and be entitled as any other permanent resident. But as ever as ever, individual situations will vary and people whose situations don't fit into neat boxes risk getting screwed over - for eg those who have spent chunks of the year out of the country (as many pensioners do).