Where do you realistically think we go from here?

[Bearbehind]

So Amber Rudd says 'no deal is unthinkable' and David Davis says the opposite.

DD also says we'd only agree to a transition period if the terms of our deal were known before hand.

The EU are still insisting the 3 priorities are addressed before talks can move to trade so basically we're at a stand off.

Something has to give at some point.

Regardless of what you want to happen, what do you think will actually happen.

I think we will walk away from the talks, all hell will break loose when the repercussions of that come to the fore and we'll end up staying in the EU in some capacity but in a much weaker position than before.

Bear - iirc before the referendum last year you said you thought that only those well informed about the EU should be allowed to vote. If there was another referendum do you still think that should be the rule?

Obviously there couldn't be a 'rule' imposed saying that but I do think people have a duty to understand what they are voting for/ against- I'm really not sure how you could argue the opposite and say it's fine to pitch up and stick your X in either boxes when you have no idea what it means.

Forgot to add that, if there were to be a second referendum, it would be very different to the first anyway as there would be a lot more detail on either side, which there should have been the first time.

The Government should stop the talks now and concentrate on developing the infrastructure required for an independent UK

I agree with the principle of this; all the time we're huffing and puffing about walking out whilst doing sod all about putting anything in place to cope with that eventuality shows it for the empty threat it actually is.

Farage has threatened riots if Brexit isn't enacted. I think EDL and British Frist etc will oblige with demonstrations that turn into riots.

Also I don't think it'll be long before a leading Brexiter suggests some sort of national service for young people so they can work on farms or in care homes to make up the shortfall in EU workers.

Also, is not leaving even an option anymore? As I understand it A50 can only be withdrawn with the agreement of all 27 EU states so it's not even up to us anymore.

in the uk brexit was the end of the thatcher paradigm.

I agree with this. And the connectivity that has enabled the gig economy has produced thatcher on steroids.

There was always a built-in (wage and age) time bomb in thatcher's electorate-rigging housing policy. In some ways it's surprising it's taken this long to implode.

I think Labour will survive but I would prefer to see a more centrist leader - eg kier starmer. I think he's doing well and I could see him enabling a more middle-of-the-road brexit.

There is broad public support for several of Corbyn's policies - on eg rail, utilities, maybe less so university fees, although I think this is changing. It is a mark of how far we have shifted that these policies, and his support for collective voice at work, cause some people to scream 'Venezuela'. But I don't think corbyn is the person to unify the party and bring down the government in another GE, unless we want a pretty hard landing.

As I understand it A50 can only be withdrawn with the agreement of all 27 EU states so it's not even up to us anymore

A toxic nation needs to be isolated. That must be EU27's thinking too now. South African apartheid was brought down party by official and unofficial trade embargoes. Never mind trade deals; what little Britain does produce, will be shunned.

It's a toxic government, not a toxic nation though.

We don't know under what circumstances A50 can be revoked - and the government doesn't want to go down the only certain way of finding out which would be an ECJ ruling. Pragmatically, there have been hints from some in the EU that they would be willing to let the UK unilaterally call time on this mess.

The "no deal" scenario is seen by all but extremists as preposterous so it carries no clout, the government know this, the EU know this. The government also know - and have come close to admitting - that the promises made by the Leave campaign have not a hope of being fulfilled - the best we can hope for is damage limitation I'm afraid . There is still a chance that the government's own incompetence/inability to grasp the issues means that we will crash out but it's more likely that a compromise will be reached - I don't think it will be a great one, no one will be delighted. Hurrah for us .

*reversed not revoked.

I think whichever way you look at it the Tories are fucked.

I'd be really, really happy with an EEA arrangement; that's exactly what I thought would happen, as it didn't enter my head that this government would be as thick as pig shit to even consider a No Deal/WTO siruation. I'm no fan of the Conservatives but the level of incompetence they've displayed over Brexit has astounded even this dyed in the wool Labour voter.

But anyway, we know what thought did . I've acknowledged many times on here I was naive to think that there would be a Sensible Plan for leaving, before people pile on to stick the boot in.

Figmentofmyimagination Yes, you're right, toxic government. I do hope that's how it's perceived by the EU27.

Thinking about this some more, I think a rubbish deal will be cobbled together that'll leave us worse off on every measure. The government then have to get this through parliament, which they won't be able to. At that point it'll be put back to the people, Leave with no deal or try to remain. Maybe?

I think we will walk away from the talks, all hell will break loose when the repercussions of that come to the fore and we'll end up staying in the EU in some capacity but in a much weaker position than before.

I think so too. I've said since the vote that the most likely outcome is a 'Fudgit' –an agreement a bit like Switzerland/Norway etc. I think it will only come about after a long period of economic instability and recession, possible issues with food and goods supply, a brain drain... You know, all the good stuff.

It will leave at least one Tory body on the floor (May's). Maybe Hammond's, maybe Johnson's and/or Davis's. I'm not going to lower myself to say 'so that's the good news'...

I predicted that the leave campaign would win by a narrow margin. I also predicted Trump would win.

In the future I think there will be 'no deal' and that Britain will fall off the cliff. Then Labour will get elected and blamed for all the shit that happens thereafter. Poor people will also be blamed for Brexit. Prominent leavers will move to America.

NameChanger - did you also predict that May would lose her majority? I myself was astounded when that happened, although I did see Corbyn doing well at the various hustings.

Prominent leavers will move to America.

Yes, I think this as well.

Prominent leavers will move to America to live nearer their bosses.

I didn't "predict" that May would lose her majority but I did set out to vote with specifically this objective in mind. I voted Labour, not even knowing the name of the Labour candidate, and despite him also being in favour of leaving the EU, precisely in order to ensure that brexit-promoting conservative Richard fuller lost his seat, reducing their majority. Result. Not sure how many were as single minded, but I suspect a lot of us were out for revenge at the last election - and wanted to punish May for being so f**king arrogant in calling that election.

I also predicted leave victory, I also predict a no deal brexit.

I predict that leavers will blame the eu. Anyone with the passport or means will leave the country.

It's interesting that noone seems to see a terribly positive resolution to the current situation.

I don't think the tories are fucked.

I think if it was anyone but Corbyn then they would be finished for now. Middle England still won't countenance him. (I'm rather keen on Emily thornberry)sp?

Our politicians are shit at the moment.

What possible positive outcome could there be? I just hope we can remain after all, preferably on a path to closer integration.

I voted with the intention of getting the Tory candidate out. She decided to remind us that she had voted Remain, after a year of wittering on about the will of the people. Too late. I was delighted to see her 9500 majority destroyed, but I really wasn't confident until the votes were counted - I thought it would be a near miss.