Westminstenders: The Continuing Saga of the Prime Minister Who Didn’t Know When to Quit

[RedToothBrush]

As the dust begins to settle after the drama of a result no one really thought would happen though many hoped, we start to wonder what else will happen.

Initially it looked like the best possible result. The trouble is May has decided true to form to be a pain in the backside and not know when to quit. Her trade mark management style to crash forward in a straight through obstacles, taking everything that gets in her way in the process, rather than taking the more sensible and less hazardous route. She has had a nasty habit of come hurdling to an abrupt and painful messy end as she hits an inpenatrable brick wall of law or circumstance.

The idea that she can be moderated in any way is ridiculous, especially if Nick and Fiona survive.

We now have a situation with a minority government and a prime minister with a manifesto full of controversial proposals that will largely be consigned to the bin out of fear of defeat. Her ambitions over human rights are not in the manifesto so an embolden House of Lords will just throw it out without fear – because constitutionally the Salisbury convention only applies to majority governments. She has become a lame duck.

The trouble is that this is a parliament that needs to pass measures because of Brexit. May’s ability to deal with the Great Repeal Act in particular is going to be next to impossible. Certainly with the time already wasted.

May’s insistence that nothing has changed and its business as usual merely adds insult to injury and makes the whole situation worse. It sets her up to fail at some point, but that could well be after she has single handedly lead the country to economic and social disaster. Her lack of understanding of this just shows her up as the poor one trick politician without real leadership skills and vision. It marks her arrogance and lack of respect for those who are her bosses.

She could have acknowledged that the election result was a wholesale rejection of her vision for Brexit and reached out to other parties for a consensus over Brexit she decided to go rushing in bed with the hardline right DUP.

We now have a situation where her loose agreement with the DUP to prop up her government could be in breach of the Good Friday Agreement, further risking instability in that part of the union. It is not only fool hardy, its reckless. Not only that, without a formal agreement in the form of a coalition, such support means the she can not rely on the back up of the Salisbury Convention.

This is also done without irony after vilifying Corbyn for his association with terrorists. It shows a total disregard for the colleagues who the DUP regard as an ‘abomination’ for being gay, especially Ruth Davidson who basically saved her political neck. She really is a political prisoner to their whims and demands. This arrangement with the one that John Major avoided even when he struggled with a minority government because of the problems it would cause. Of course, if you were cynical you might well argue that May wants to break the GFA.

The rest of the party will cowardly let her lurch from crisis to crisis because the like the spine to rid themselves of the problem. Political crisis which involve NI are particularly difficult and particularly risky. May risks constitutional crisis there, with the House of Lords, over our WTO status, with Human Rights of EU and British nationals, a possible no confidence vote and with EU negotiations. That’s just the big ones we can forsee now. Yet she sees herself as the champion of stability in this midst of it all with a staggering lack of self-awareness or brazen disregard. Its like how the GOP tolerate Trump for their Christian agenda, the Hard Brexiteers will tolerate May to get Brexit through in any way they can; though this now opens it up to being even more chaotic unless the liberals stand up to the ever increasing suicide of it. The reality is that the chances of her being able to persuade both the liberal and right wings to agree to the same plan is slim.

The chances of the house of cards simply collapsing and us left with another election are huge.

There is hope. More than a landslide would have brought, but this path is fraught with pitfalls, it is difficult to see May doing anything but charging headlong over a cliff and missing the best way out of this mess. David Davis has admitted that there is now no longer a mandate for hard Brexit and we will need to stay in the Single Market and Customs Union and Greg Clark is summoning business to support the course. There are calls from Sarah Wollaston, Heidi Allen and Yvette Cooper for a cross party approach to key issues. This of course is the last thing that the Wing Nuts – and May - will allow willingly.

BBC: May's ego trip of a GE cost £143 million.

Looks like there is a magic money tree after all.

Thanks Red for all these threads.

AccioMerlot from previous thread - You're assuming there the DUP give a shit about appearing reasonable. Clearly you're not used to NI politics, where being reasonable is seen as a sign of terminal weakness....

I know they don't give a shit about appearing reasonable - the word cannot exist in the same sentence as 'DUP'.

'Unreasonable' has been their trademark since they were founded. What I was pondering was the question of toning it down now that the eyes of the world are upon them, and the eyes of the British public in particular. I wonder if the Tories (assuming still in office in mid July) would put pressure on them to tell the lads in balaclavas to stay home instead of putting on the usual display of narrow mindedness and triumphalism. I have a feeling the triumphalism will be very much in evidence during the marching season myself, and I don't think it will go down well at all if it is covered by the global press, which might happen given the importance of the DUP to current UK politics.

I don't know why it bothers me that she used the unionist bit back in July last year as well as today. It just doesn't sit well with me.
I noted that too, RTB, and dismissed it as my radar being tuned to 'way over-sensitive', but it hearkens back to a time in political history when armed groups dictated or sought to dictate to the elected government (the period before WW1 when the Asquith government was wobbling unsteadily towards granting Home Rule to the entire island of Ireland, and extremists on the unionist side responded with an Army mutiny in the Curragh and the importation of 25,000 rifles and between 3 and 5 million rounds of ammunition from the German Empire in an April 1914 episode known as the Larne gun running. The Unionists were prepared to fight the British army and their nationalist neighbours rather than submit to Home Rule, and those Unionist officers in the Curragh who decided to thumb their noses at the government were given a slap on the wrist.

Either Theresa May is an out and out fundamentalist Fascist or she is woefully unaware of any detail of history (of course she could be both) but that full title is going to go down very badly in nationalist circles in NI.

I suspect she is out to wreck the GFA. She has stated that the Union is her priority and she is going hell bent for a Brexit that will 'unshackle' the UK (incl NI) from the ECJ and ECHR. The DUP will hold her to any promises made over eliminating those guarantors of human and civil rights in NI.

Another one thanking RTB for these threads - they really deserve some sort of Mumsnet award for providing such an insightful political overview.

This, in the Guardian:

I should like to draw attention to the possible effect on the government of Northern Ireland arising from any alliance between the Conservative party and the DUP. The Northern Ireland assembly is currently in suspension because the two major Stormont parties, DUP and Sinn Féin, are unable to reach a power-sharing agreement. If, as seems probable, this remains the case, the administration of the province’s domestic affairs will be undertaken via direct rule from Westminster.

Direct rule by a non-partisan British government is one thing; rule by an administration heavily influenced by the DUP is quite another and would seem contrary to the spirit of power-sharing embodied in the Northern Ireland peace process. I should like to ask what provision might be put in place to safeguard the rights and interests of the nationalist community in Northern Ireland should a Conservative-DUP alliance emerge.
Roger Barham
York

Concisely put, and absolutely true.
The DUP's eagerness to run to the Tories' aid reveals their real feelings about the GFA, and also TM's (assuming she has even heard of it).
The future of the Northern Ireland Assembly is moot.

I wonder what effect tactical voting would have if there was a general election in the next few months.
Surely most of the labour vote in Richmond Park would go to the Lib Dems, and a fair chunk of the Lib Dem/Green vote in Hastings would go to labour. There would of course be votes going to Tories in marginal seats that they won but if Lab/Lib Dem/SNP/Green voters voted to get the tories out it could be done.

telegraph Davidson planning Scottish Tory breakaway

Win 10 dup votes, lose 12 Scottish Tory ones.
I'm beginning to suspect TM isn't all that clever.

Thank you Red

Given the mutterings of another election are we stick with the political trolls on here for the foreseeable future?

"Win 10 dup votes, lose 12 Scottish Tory ones."
Interesting.

I think Ruth said that the article wasn't true

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/09/ruth-davidson-given-gay-rights-assurance-pm-dup-deal/

Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson said she has received assurances from the Prime Minister over gay rights should the Tories do a deal with Democratic Unionist Party.

Ms Davidson, who is gay, spoke out after Theresa May outlined a plan to seek a deal with the socially hardline party, which has 10 seats in the Commons, to prop up her minority administration.

I suspect she is out to wreck the GFA. She has stated that the Union is her priority and she is going hell bent for a Brexit that will 'unshackle' the UK (incl NI) from the ECJ and ECHR. The DUP will hold her to any promises made over eliminating those guarantors of human and civil rights in NI.

I am watching who gets NI in the cabinet reshuffle like a hawk today. With the big jobs filled, it now becomes one of the most significant. I don't care how dubious that rumour about Gove was, even the thought of it scares me. And now the DUP popping up? Shudder. Maybe my fears are unfounded but it would be consistent with how operates and the decisions she makes.

Also Justice after Liz Truss failed to do the one thing the Lord Chancellor is supposed to - stand up to the media and the executive and defend the rule of law and.the courts. The Dept of Justice needs someone strong in it prepared to not take any shit from May. It was precisely why May put in the weak Truss.

Ruth tweeted last night that it was bullshit. Why was the Torygraph making mischief with the story at all though? To undermine May or Davidson? I'd actually suggest the latter.

David Allen Green Retweeted

Police Community @PolComForum
Dear Theresa, it's not the number of MPs that counts it's how you use them. You have to do more with less that's all 😂👏👍

Whether the Ruthie story is true or not, it does demonstrate that those 13 Scottish Tories are going to have some clout in the administration. After years of a Tory Government the Scots didn't elect, we now have a Tory Government the Scot's did elect.

(Incidentally, I trust people understand that RD isn't an MP, but an MSP, so can't defy May's whip even if she wanted to. I have now idea how the power structure of the party works, but I presume that TM is boss of those 13 MPs, not Ruthie).

I started yesterday optimistic. Now it's feels a right mess.
Didn't really want the Labour party to win because want the Tories to have to deal with the Brexit mess, but as the Tories have a sort of majority (with what appears to be a extreme right wing party calling the shots) it's hard to see what's going to happen.

Ha I did think that was an interesting story from the Torygraph.
Deal with dup looking less likely though, so maybe TM is just a barefaced liar.

@faisalislam
Without @ScotTories performance Cons would have 304 MPs & Lab + SNP 310.
Add in other parties & clear Ruth Davidson has kept May at No 10

Who holds the balance of power? Interesting times.

Michael Gove on the GFA:
www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/michael-gove-a-fanatic-who-would-damage-peace-process-1.2710224

Is it a soft Brexit looking more and more likely.
Am I right in thinking the dup and Scottish Tories would prefer and soft Brexit?

Jack Bernhardt @ jackbern 23
So the DUP's inherent bigotry, homophobia, climate change and evolution denial should disbar them from mainstream politics, full stop. But.

It's important not to let the DUP's general grossness overshadow just what a colossally irresponsible move this is from TM. It's INSANE.

I sound like a broken record but please please please can we talk about how powersharing has collapsed in Northern Ireland?
This is a list of the current members in the Northern Irish Executive in Stormont.
[List of vacancies]

It's been like this for three months. This crisis dates back to the Cash for Ash scandal involving current head of the DUP Arlene Foster.

It's a frankly unbelievable story of sleaze at the top of NI politics. It would be difficult for most governments to deal with. Add in the inherent sectarian tension in Northern Irish politics, plus heightened fears over a hard border post-Brexit, and it's paralysing.

Sinn Fein pulled out of the executive in protest at Arlene Foster, triggering elections which eventually gave SF an increased vote share. They had six weeks after that point to form a government. SF demanded Foster quit as head of DUP, she refused. Again.

Things got more tense. The deadline for forming government passed. At that point either ANOTHER election had to be called, or you revert to Direct Rule. At this point Westminster woke up. The idea of Northern Ireland slipping back to Direct Rule months before Brexit negotiations = NOT GOOD.

So at the end of March James Brokenshire went over to NI to generally just ask people to get along/be totally useless. It didn't work.

He said there was no appetite for another election (true) and no appetite for Direct Rule (also true). So they just extended the deadline. Keep in mind, this is end of March. We've just triggered Article 50 and we're currently having a totally pointless argument about Gibraltar. Should we have been having a discussion about the steady erosion of the peace process in Northern Ireland instead? YEAH MAYBE.

The deadline is shunted on further. Talks between SF & DUP are going nowhere. But at least the UK government is aware of the problem now. Things are tense, complicated and messy. You know what the situation doesn't need? A snap general election.

Suddenly Northern Ireland is facing the prospect of ANOTHER election, for Westminster this time, while dealing with a constitutional crisis. So the deadline gets shunted until after the election. The parties are now negotiating and campaigning at the same time. Great stuff.

And so to yesterday. SF get 8, DUP 10. The more moderate SDLP, UUP and Alliance fall away. Northern Ireland is more polarised than ever.
[RTB: Actually SF got 7 with an independent getting the last NI seat]

Before today, TM's government has been criminally negligent of Northern Ireland. Think about how little you've heard about NI this election. It was only ever brought up in relation to Corbyn and the IRA. There was NO discussion of Stormont impasse, or even the border post-Brexit. You'd think we'd have learnt our lesson after the EU referendum and actually thought about the consequences of a Hard Brexit in NI. But no.

So here we are, June 9th, 10 days before Brexit negotiations, with no Stormont government and mass confusion over the NI Brexit border. We have three months of inaction. We have the DUP and SF in a stalemate. The deadline is approaching again. Direct rule looms.

These problems will only be solved by careful, strategic leadership from Westminster, working with both parties to deescalate the situation. What Theresa May has done today has destroyed any hope of that. At one of the most dangerous times in its recent history, May has done this.

Any pretense that the UK government could be neutral in this is gone. Their entire existence is now dependent on the DUP. Direct rule is not an option because the DUP has an unrealistic amount of sway over Westminster. It throws the balance of power totally off. Arlene Foster, who should have resigned months ago for her rank corruption, now holds more power over the UK government than...anyone?

The next deadline, by the way, is June 29th. But now the DUP is in bed with the UK government, will James Brokenshire have any authority? Has anyone in gov thought about what happens when THAT expires? Why should Sinn Fein treat the UK gov as a neutral arbiter after that?

Power-sharing relies on a neutral UK government. If the government is beholden to one side in power-sharing, it is fatally undermined. It's hard to see what happens in N Ireland without power-sharing or without direct rule. Either it will float on, pushing that deadline...

...or the whole thing is irrevocably damaged and the system implodes.

For what, a two seat majority?

I may be wrong - there may be some incredible fudge that Tories/DUP/SF have planned. Maybe the DUP are hoping the SF will just accept it. I pray TM has a plan beyond "keep the DUP onside, stay in power". If she doesn't, she's thrown Northern Ireland into chaos for nothing.

FYI: I am NOT an expert on this. I have probably made countless errors and generalisations & my Northern Irish friends are probably furious. If you want someone seriously in the know can I recommend @SiobhanFenton who has been doing brilliant work on Northern Ireland constantly

*May's ego trip of a GE cost £143 million.
*
And how much more will it cost? A higher EU divorce bill?

What about Brexit?! No one even knows where the talks are taking place or who is going. May may have to rip up previous plans apparently - even with unsavoury new voting arrangement, unlikely to get through and Tory HQ will make her sack Hill/Timothy. She's so isolated. What a mess.

But the negotiations don't require majority support until the deal is finalised and brought back for a vote in parliament. ? I'm not sure how it works. Couldn't they negotiate on the basis of their hard brexit and then worry about the numbers later, by which time we will have run out of negotiating time? And then government could resign forcing another election?