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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Continuing Saga of the Prime Minister Who Didn’t Know When to Quit

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 09/06/2017 21:03

As the dust begins to settle after the drama of a result no one really thought would happen though many hoped, we start to wonder what else will happen.

Initially it looked like the best possible result. The trouble is May has decided true to form to be a pain in the backside and not know when to quit. Her trade mark management style to crash forward in a straight through obstacles, taking everything that gets in her way in the process, rather than taking the more sensible and less hazardous route. She has had a nasty habit of come hurdling to an abrupt and painful messy end as she hits an inpenatrable brick wall of law or circumstance.

The idea that she can be moderated in any way is ridiculous, especially if Nick and Fiona survive.

We now have a situation with a minority government and a prime minister with a manifesto full of controversial proposals that will largely be consigned to the bin out of fear of defeat. Her ambitions over human rights are not in the manifesto so an embolden House of Lords will just throw it out without fear – because constitutionally the Salisbury convention only applies to majority governments. She has become a lame duck.

The trouble is that this is a parliament that needs to pass measures because of Brexit. May’s ability to deal with the Great Repeal Act in particular is going to be next to impossible. Certainly with the time already wasted.

May’s insistence that nothing has changed and its business as usual merely adds insult to injury and makes the whole situation worse. It sets her up to fail at some point, but that could well be after she has single handedly lead the country to economic and social disaster. Her lack of understanding of this just shows her up as the poor one trick politician without real leadership skills and vision. It marks her arrogance and lack of respect for those who are her bosses.

She could have acknowledged that the election result was a wholesale rejection of her vision for Brexit and reached out to other parties for a consensus over Brexit she decided to go rushing in bed with the hardline right DUP.

We now have a situation where her loose agreement with the DUP to prop up her government could be in breach of the Good Friday Agreement, further risking instability in that part of the union. It is not only fool hardy, its reckless. Not only that, without a formal agreement in the form of a coalition, such support means the she can not rely on the back up of the Salisbury Convention.

This is also done without irony after vilifying Corbyn for his association with terrorists. It shows a total disregard for the colleagues who the DUP regard as an ‘abomination’ for being gay, especially Ruth Davidson who basically saved her political neck. She really is a political prisoner to their whims and demands. This arrangement with the one that John Major avoided even when he struggled with a minority government because of the problems it would cause. Of course, if you were cynical you might well argue that May wants to break the GFA.

The rest of the party will cowardly let her lurch from crisis to crisis because the like the spine to rid themselves of the problem. Political crisis which involve NI are particularly difficult and particularly risky. May risks constitutional crisis there, with the House of Lords, over our WTO status, with Human Rights of EU and British nationals, a possible no confidence vote and with EU negotiations. That’s just the big ones we can forsee now. Yet she sees herself as the champion of stability in this midst of it all with a staggering lack of self-awareness or brazen disregard. Its like how the GOP tolerate Trump for their Christian agenda, the Hard Brexiteers will tolerate May to get Brexit through in any way they can; though this now opens it up to being even more chaotic unless the liberals stand up to the ever increasing suicide of it. The reality is that the chances of her being able to persuade both the liberal and right wings to agree to the same plan is slim.

The chances of the house of cards simply collapsing and us left with another election are huge.

There is hope. More than a landslide would have brought, but this path is fraught with pitfalls, it is difficult to see May doing anything but charging headlong over a cliff and missing the best way out of this mess. David Davis has admitted that there is now no longer a mandate for hard Brexit and we will need to stay in the Single Market and Customs Union and Greg Clark is summoning business to support the course. There are calls from Sarah Wollaston, Heidi Allen and Yvette Cooper for a cross party approach to key issues. This of course is the last thing that the Wing Nuts – and May - will allow willingly.

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Thread gallery
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BiglyBadgers · 10/06/2017 09:41

Thanks for the new thread red. It's helpful to see it all summarised so neatly. Smile

The conservative noise around getting rid of May is getting louder and louder today. It seems impossible she will stay in place for long. I am starting to lean towards a minority conservative government lead by a much more centerist leader, Ruth Davidson would be in if the practicalities could be sorted. Brexit will go soft because it has to.

If this doesn't happen because May and the rightwing go full on Trump and refuse to play sane we will end up with another election. I can't see any other result from that except labour getting in and going cap in hand to the EU to ask very nicely for more time.

The conservatives need to look across the Atlantic and think very hard about how they think the GOP is going to do in the next US elections, and whether they want to head down that same road.

everthibkyouvebeenconned · 10/06/2017 09:44

Agreed but they will need a firm majority. It's not in place. I'm sure all eyes aircon October. The wagons are circuling and planning the next election

The Brexit talks will limp along til then. Nothing actually needs agreement. No bills need passing. Grammar school proposals will be put on hold etc. She's a lame duck
Or an acting head teacher just looking after the school til the real head starts in the autumn.

It does annoy me that our country will effectively be in stasis whilst the Tories sort their shot out again. They just play at serving us. It's all just a bloody game. I think.I might go and help out at a marginal in October!

RedToothBrush · 10/06/2017 09:51

I've seen a comment re Timothy from an MP which I can't remember exactly. I'll paraphrase:

'Timothy has more power than you can possibly imagine. And then some. He's dangerous.'

He is in no way elected. It is not right in our democracy that he has that level. This is where the Cabinet should be taking control of the situation and in no uncertain terms he must leave. If he doesn't go, then I'm afraid the dynamic is one where you question.... Well let's not go there just yet.

This weekend NEEDS to be politically explosive. Let's see who speaks out and who does what. The quiet yesterday was indicative of government in crisis mode. With the exception of Grayling in QT (who run May's leadership bid so is probably loyal) the cabinet were all notable by their absence and silence.

Lots of 'senior Tory minister' and 'an anonymous cabinet minister' stuff floating about though.

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illegitimateMortificadospawn · 10/06/2017 09:51

Flagrant placemark, as I'm struggling to keep up with you guys.

everthibkyouvebeenconned · 10/06/2017 09:52

The only way Ruth could lead is if there way a by election surely. I would have thought if she wanted westminster she would hsve stood on Thursday. Also Tory members in England wouldn't get past her sexuality I fear

BestIsWest · 10/06/2017 09:52

A nice bit of levity here from The New Yorker.

IrenetheQuaint · 10/06/2017 09:53

Yes - what will happen to parliamentary business when it seems unlikely we'll have a full parliamentary year before another GE is anyone's guess. Plus of course hard to get anything through Parliament with the numbers. Even minor non-controversial pieces of legislation are at risk.

prettybird · 10/06/2017 09:54

Friend has posted this up on FB (don't know if he stole it from somewhere else)

English voters 2015: We won't be governed by Scotland!
English voters 2016: We won't be governed by Brussels!
English voters 2017: frantically googling the DUP

Grin
BiglyBadgers · 10/06/2017 09:56

The only way Ruth could lead is if there way a by election surely. I would have thought if she wanted westminster she would hsve stood on Thursday. Also Tory members in England wouldn't get past her sexuality I fear

As I said, a few practicalities would need to be sorted, but the Tories are pretty ruthless about making things happen when they put their minds to it. Grin

I imagine it will be someone else though, part of me suspects the only reason that May is still here is because there isn't an obvious successor. This weekend will certainly be interesting.

BigChocFrenzy · 10/06/2017 09:59

pretty GrinGrin

imo, it is quite likely the Tory party will faff around with playing with itself until the A50 clock has almost run out

At that time, I'm expecting their business paymasters to grab them by the scruff of the neck and force them to ask for an extension for the specific intention of negotiating for EEA / EFTA - probably the only circumstances the EU would accept for granting an extension

Yes, I think the Tories can be forced into a humiliating climbdown if the alternative is no more momey, ever, from their main sources

RedToothBrush · 10/06/2017 09:59

Ooh reduction in abortion time limits you say?
Pretty sure TM was pro that last time it came up. Need to double check though.

Note. NI is currently in breach of the EHCR with its current abortion law. It has been ordered to change it but politicians are opposed to doing so and are dragging their feet to do so. The lack of political will means absolutely no progress has been made. This is despite the majority of people in NI supporting these reforms. It just highlights how the Christian right dominants NI politics to a point that is unhealthy and doesn't reflect what the electorate want. The issue of identity and sectarianism holds them hostage but the political events of this year have just polarised and give every more power to that.

Yes the government is hostage to politicians who do not comply with the EHCR and we have a prime minister who wants to leave the EHCR.

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BigChocFrenzy · 10/06/2017 10:01

(Times Paywall) It’s make-believe to think May can survive

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/it-s-make-believe-to-think-may-can-survive-vlpkgldg3

" After a catastrophic general election in which the prime minister has lost her parliamentary majority, she emerges from Buckingham Palace to announce the formation of a new government as if the news needed no more explanation than a hair appointment.

The prime minister’s statement outside Downing Street comes close to inviting not political analysis but psychoanalysis."

Here are the facts.
Egged on by many voices around her, Theresa May miscalculated badly in calling an election.
She then mismanaged the conduct of the election.

She has lost public trust and lost her authority to govern.

In its merciless and underhand way, the incoming parliamentary Conservative Party will soon be making that clear to her.

That’s what chief whips and 1922 Committee meetings are for.

"There has to be a government, however, so it should prove possible for Mrs May to run a caretaker minority administration before making way for her successor.

Were she to acknowledge all this before rather than after she is forced to, she would earn sympathy, time and a fair wind.
She has a matter of days in which to pre-empt her executioners."

"The Conservative Party has just taken a kicking from an electorate still trying to din into the Tory head
— as they have at every election since, in circumstances of civil chaos in 1979, they held their noses and voted for Margaret Thatcher —

that ours is a mostly modern-thinking, moderate and outward-looking nation with

a reflexive distaste for the Tory right.

Hence Ruth Davidson’s success in Scotland."

"Let us take the Tory right at their word.

They said this election was about Brexit.

They said it offered the electorate a chance to show the world we backed our prime minister’s plans for a hard version of Brexit, and to make no compromises on immigration and the European Court of Justice.

They said that victory on June 8 would be the vindication of a rougher-edged, more populist model of Conservatism than the soppy and limp-wristed model Cameroons had tried to build."

" If the widely expected Tory landslide had actually occurred on Thursday, we know very well what they would be saying now.
That the people had spoken.

That Britain had backed a hard Brexit, a no-deal-is-better-than-a-bad-deal Brexit, a Blighty-alone Brexit, a come-what-may, do-your-worst-Jean-Claude, up-yours-Delors Brexit.

Within minutes of an exit poll prediction of a big majority, Tory hardliners and Brexiteers would have been queueing to take ownership of that victory.

So let them now take ownership of the defeat."

"Let the remnants of Ukip’s bedraggled army sit down and weep by the banks of the Rother and Don.

And let the sane centrists, the internationalists, the gently-does-it realists, the politicians who know that business and the City matter, the parliamentarians who — did they but know it — will form a convincing majority of the new Tory party at Westminster, take heart.

They need to find each other and find their collective voice now before the right, and Europhobes and their opportunist hitchhikers like Boris Johnson mobilise.

This could prove an auspicious season for Tory progressives."

"It’s a moment to seize for moderation but time is short.

There must surely be a leadership election later this year

and if centrists skulk
there’s a Conservative dynamic that will turn the contest into a posturing auction between right-of-centre candidates for backbench and grassroots support.

Within a few weeks they’ll all have forgotten what Thursday reminded them of:
that there’s an electorate out there.

BirdBandit · 10/06/2017 10:02

Thanks for this thread, Red.

BigChocFrenzy · 10/06/2017 10:04

Any seriously controversial measure - e.g. ECHR, internment etc - can and will be blocked by only 4-5 Tory rebels, or those with mysterious "ailments" that keep them at home.

prettybird · 10/06/2017 10:04

@davidtorrance: So @RuthDavidsonMSP, having backed soft Brexit a year ago,before shifting to hard Brexit, has now come full circle to back soft Brexit again

For context, David Torrance is no trendy lefty, normally a supporter of the Conservatives and is a rabid strong hater of independence and the SNP (he particularly hates Alex Salmond).

Ruth is ruthlessly ambitious which would explain her repeated U-turns. Personally, I think the only reason that she wasn't parachuted into an English constituency this time around was that the GE came too soon and there wasn't time to identify a suitable constituency. Plus she was needed to rally the troops in Scotland.

WhenSheWasBadSheWasHorrid · 10/06/2017 10:06

frantically googling the DUP

Grin
RedToothBrush · 10/06/2017 10:07

Two in three Conservative Party members think May should resign

This is Conservative Home survey. This is the party membership. This is huge pressure.

This is not like Corbyn who always had a majority of members behind him against the PLP. And always had the unions.

May has her cabinet, her MPs and her party membership all against her.

And she's still there.

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citroenpresse · 10/06/2017 10:10

No successor, no platform, no mandate, no clear direction from electorate (eg Ukip to Labour) about the type of Brexit. No willingness to share policy or engage in debate.

BigChocFrenzy · 10/06/2017 10:11

May was annointed after a brief contest among MPs - the club where she feels at home.
She was never faced with an election contest by party members

She now lacks that authority of ever having had that endorsement

Badders123 · 10/06/2017 10:11

It's like an episode of the thick of it
But not funny

Artisanjam · 10/06/2017 10:11

What does seem to have changed listening to the BBC and reading papers this morning is that remain MPs from all parties are much more vocal about the need for soft Brexit. I heard Ed vaizey on the news saying we've got to go that way - 3 months ago it would have been 'deliver b/c it's the will of the people'.

It looks as though print media has suffered a nasty blow, especially Murdoch and scare who believed they could control the electorate. Given their attacks on Corbyn on Wednesday, they've shot their bolt.

I'm sure they'll be back, but they are wounded for a time, as is ukip which leaves some space for other voices to be heard which have so far been ignored totally. I'm sure TM would like to keep ignoring them, but that would result in her rapid defenestration.

prettybird · 10/06/2017 10:14

Would Parliament need to reconvene before the required 42(?) MPs can generate the required signatures to trigger a leadership contest?

Until then, she would have to choose to fall on her own sword - and it doesn't look like she is going to choose to that voluntarily.

BigChocFrenzy · 10/06/2017 10:14

(Times paywall) Theresa May stares into the abyss after election disaster

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/pm-loses-tory-majority-sparking-fears-over-imminent-brexit-talks-7539chg3m

"A diminished prime minister was forced to promise Philip Hammond — the chancellor she was planning to sack — a greater say over Brexit
as she faced up to the realities of having lost her absolute majority in an election she was under no pressure to call."

"Mr Hammond agreed to stay on in No 11 in an encounter described as “very tricky” in which he challenged Mrs May over briefings that he had faced the sack.
Allies denied he had demanded the resignations of her two chiefs of staff, Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill.
He is thought to have discussed Brexit and other policy issues in his meeting with the prime minister."

"The election result leaves Mrs May dependent on 12 new Tory MPs representing Scottish seats, making Ruth Davidson, the party’s leader north of the border, a key figure in the new parliament.

Ms Davidson called for an “open not closed” Brexit, believed to be a reference to keeping Britain in the single market.
She also hinted at disquiet over deals with the socially conservative DUP, tweeting a link to a speech that she made in support of gay marriage."

"After steep initial falls in sterling, the markets largely shrugged off the result as
hopes grew that it meant Britain would avoid a hard Brexit."

RedToothBrush · 10/06/2017 10:16

Any seriously controversial measure - e.g. ECHR, internment etc - can and will be blocked by only 4-5 Tory rebels, or those with mysterious "ailments" that keep them at home.

Oh indeed. Still no less horrifying in terms of who is in power and who has balance of power and their beliefs.

@davidtorrance: So @RuthDavidsonMSP, having backed soft Brexit a year ago,before shifting to hard Brexit, has now come full circle to back soft Brexit again

In fairness I got the impression yesterday that there was a mood generally amongst remain Tories like this. The attitude was that they have tried the ukip approach and it didn't work and was rejected. Now it's time to try a softer option. There are lots of noisy Brexiteers saying the public want hard Brexit by overwhelmingly voting con and lab. Which is bullshit and everyone knows it. It's whether they can spin it and it take hold. That can only happen if MPs let it.

This is why David Davis coming out immediately and saying we need to look at single market and customs union again is so significant. Especially since he's kept his job.

There is a war for the Tory party and Brexit ideology going on. The hard right need May to stay to keep it on track.

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PinkPeppers · 10/06/2017 10:22

I have to say I'm quite happy with the hung parliament.
Yes the association the DUP isn't going to work.
And yes, the Tories really need to put their acts together because TM days are counted. She will be out soon.
And yes too to the fact that the situation now is as unstable as it could have been.

But TBH this election has given the population the opportunity to

  • actually say loud and clear that they do NOT want a hard Brexit and that they don't like the way TM has handled matters so far
  • the opportunity for a reshuffle - let's be honest, I'm not sure it can be worse than TM and her totalitarian tendencies (see the human rights issues, snopping laws, controlling the internet etc...)

But also we were heading towards a WTO siituation and a disorderly exit from the EU. Could we get it worse than that??

The philosopher Alain said that the role of voters in a democracy is mainly to keep the politicians in check. I think they've done that fantastically this time. Let it be the same in the future.

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