Westministenders: Up Shit Creek without Wifi.

[RedToothBrush]

Theresa May is being held hostage.

There is mounting evidence that all is not as it seems at CCHQ. It makes you don your tin foil hat and ask who is in charge.

Theresa May was a Remainer. She suddenly abandoned that when she became leader. Her proclamation of what would follow next seems directly at odds with her actions. This is not her fault. This is her plea for help and way of telling the outside world that she is a prisoner of Brexit.

At first it seemed like perhaps she had been locked up with Brexiteers for too long. She seemed to be developing a survival strategy which seemed totally irrational to outsiders. The signs of intimidation everywhere though. Instead of criticising those who did this, May joined in with them or was complicit in her silence.

Things are now taking a sinister turn. After repeatedly saying ‘No Election’, May crumbled and called one. She has now not been seen in public since. Instead she is being wheeled out at closed events to the party faithful. They are being dressed as mixing with the people but they are no such thing. The plebs in attendance are set to ‘mute’ or locked out completely.

Behold the coming of the May-Bot. She seeks to ‘prevent tourism’ in Wales. She now no longer knows which town she is currently in. (Much less have a plan for Brexit). She accuses an organisation set up to use its numbers to get better deals, of doing what it is supposed to, except she calls this ‘ganging up’.

May is not transported in a bus. Oh no. Instead she travels by the Bond Villian’s choice of transport; the helicopter.

More worrying still is the mantra ‘Strong and Stable’ repeated as many times as possible. It is almost as if, if she says it enough she might start believing it. She certainly has got her party members brainwashed and acting as if they were Zombies. Who needs ‘Spice’ when you are a Conservative? They ‘Believe’…

The ploy is to hoodwink people into voting for May instead of the Tories. CCHQ have removed Conservative branding from literature and campaigning in the North. The party are still too toxic, but May apparently scores well especially against Corbyn. Ironically however negatively I think of Corbyn he does display something May increasingly seems incapable of: humanity.

Many people might think of May as some sort of dictator figure. Its true. Every vote for her strengthens her hand. But not for Brexit negotiations. Mainly because Brexit is without merit or reward. Not unless you hold power. This is part 2 of the grab for it.

This is May’s power paradox. SHE is not powerful. She isn’t persuasive. She isn’t a healer of divides. She relies on authoritarian measures to get her way. This isn’t a sign of her personal power, but a sign of her personal weakness. She is sly and sneaky in her methods rather than compelling others to come along with her. They are doing so more because they dislike the alternative in Corbyn less.

She is not stable. She has lurched from one drama to the next, and has repeatedly been forced to back down from what she wanted. Nothing says ‘stability’ and ‘good leadership’ like appointing Boris Johnson Foreign Secretary. The lady is not so much for turning and leading, but is already staggering around dizzy whilst blindfolded playing pin the tail on the donkey. And Christ she’s got a lot of them in her Government. Including the numpty who decided to do a live event and broadcast it in an area with no wi-fi. Mind you, that is soon to be the entire country. Or what’s left of it.

She had said she had a mandate for Brexit and did not need this to be approved by the country as she was getting on with the job. This is why we are having a General Election to give her a mandate…

Not only that, but there is a lurking question here that should not be forgotten. Who is pulling May’s strings and making her dance as her actions are not natural? Every puppet show has puppet masters behind the scenes of the stage, hiding in the shadows.

They will dispense with their toy once she has outlived her usefulness like every good baddie.

Is she the one we should be most fearful of?

Hold on tight this is going to be a very bumpy ride over the next two years. Just how many casualties will be sacrificed on the altar of Brexit?

Leaver Christopher Booker behind Torygraph Paywall:
Our Brexit illusions are about to be shattered

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/brexit-illusions-shattered/

"sooner or later, the day would come when

some very uncomfortable realities would start to intrude on the bubble of make-believe in which our Government has been heading with our negotiations to withdraw from the EU."

"the loudest alarm bell yet was sounded by Angela Merkel in a speech to the German parliament.

The British, she said, have simply been “wasting time” living in a cloud of “illusions”.

".we cannot possibly hope to enjoy anything like the ease of trading with the EU that we have now"

"this means
we are choosing to exclude ourselves from the system which gives us unrestricted access to easily our largest export market

and the source of 30 per cent of our food

Up will go border controls on all our frontiers with the EU (including that in Northern Ireland).

The days when 12,000 trucks a day could cross freely from Dover to Calais, and much else, will be over.

There is no way that any one-off “trade deal” of the kind Theresa May and her colleagues are imagining could get round any of this,
and
the practical implications of this for Britain are horrendous."

"the only conceivably sensible way for us to leave the EU, wholly desirable though that is, would be to have
remained in the EEA and to join Norway in the European Free Trade Area (Efta).

It is terrifying how deliberately our politicians, led by the “Ultra-Brexiteers” around Theresa May, have refused to consider what this could have given us"

"They have not begun to grasp the realities of what would be needed to achieve a properly workable disengagement from that system of government we have been part of and ruled by for 44 years.

They will shortly be brought up against all those hard realities to which they have remained oblivious,
in ways far more unpleasant than they can yet imagine.

But
how many of our own politicians over the next few weeks of election campaigning will be pointing any of this out;

any more than we will hear it from the BBC and the rest of the media?

For reasons long predictable, we are heading for some very nasty shocks and real trouble.

The Brexit dream stage is over.

Merkel’s chilling words last week were only the start of the new phase we are now so blindly drifting into."

Behind Times Paywall:
Leaders sense UK will cave and agree on FULL citizens’ rights

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/eu-agrees-firm-stance-on-brexit-talks-5bv6hjf5z

"EU leaders were said to have burst into applause as they agreed their negotiating stance."

Donald Trusk (president of the European Council):

“progress on people, money and Ireland must come first”

“I want to assure you that as soon as Britain gives real guarantees for our citizens, we will find a solution rapidly”

Jean-Claude Juncker (president of the European Commission):

"Sometimes our British friends, not all of them, do underestimate the technical difficulties we have to face.
This single and not simple question of citizens’ rights is in fact a cocktail of 25 different questions which have to be resolved”

< it's not as simple as May's soundbite that she wants to guarantee those rights - she wants to pick and chose which rights and which citizens, not keep the same rights as now >

"He said that the talks would be smoothed if Mrs May dropped a British veto on £4.3 billion in EU spending aimed at easing the plight of refugees in the Mediterranean."

< I thought the Tories claimed the reason they don't allow more refugees into the UK is because they want to help them outside the UK >

"Diplomats believe a compromise to prevent a “hard border” between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic will be easier to negotiate than a deal on citizens’ rights."

"Mrs May will have to convince each of the EU’s 27 leaders that she has compromised sufficiently.
Every country will have a veto over the start of trade talks."

"The Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe, said
he would “continue to trust” the British economy after Brexit.
However, Mr Abe used a visit to London to warn that open trade with Europe was “a matter of concern to the world”

and urged Mrs May to negotiate a transition period after Britain’s departure to prevent trade rules changing overnight."

NI:
"At the request of Enda Kenny, the Irish prime minister,
the EU agreed legal text incorporating the 1998 Good Friday Agreement into any Brexit agreement.

< so, the UK must keep to the GFA or it won't get a deal. The UK shouldn't attempt to wiggle out of an agreement it signed, but many hard right Tories always hated the GFA because they wanted (an impossible) military victory >

The text ensures that if the Northern Irish vote to join the south there will be no barriers to EU membership of a united Ireland."

Leaver Richard North
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86459

"Nor can there be any comfort in the thought that the EU's negotiating guidelines are simply an opening gambit which can be discarded when the going gets tough.
In procedural terms, these guidelines form the mandate for the negotiating team and have binding effect.

If the negotiators need to depart from them, then they will have to go back to the European Council."

"their stance of "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" is a standard principle which the EU adopts almost universally.
Within that context, insisting on a phased approach to the negotiations makes absolute sense.
Taking part in complex and highly technical trade negotiations requires a considerable investment in time and scarce manpower resources, so it stands to reason that they will not want make the commitment until the basics are agreed."

He says BEFORE discussing trade, negotiators must also resolve the
UK's 900 international commitments contracted during EU membership.
e.g. on climate change, refugees

"it is not sensible to believe that all these matters can be dispensed with quickly.
These agreements have been concluded over many decades, and many will require detailed scrutiny before we can continue to support them."

Thanks Red I see the Brexit Arms has gone very quiet.

I have this weird conviction that May will end up calling a second referendum.

She is presenting this whole election as if it as all about her. So far the electorate do not seem very much bothered by her many turnarounds and untruths - she has hypnotised them. I see her in two years on the steps of Downing Street saying "I have now come to believe that leaving the EU will not be to our benefit.In the interests of strong and stable leadership we must establish whether the country is behind me on this. Otherwise there will be a coalition of chaos (or something)" I don't think she wants the chaos that will come with leaving without a deal yet the transitional deal option will be seen by her hard-right backbenchers as being a betrayal similar to if we just stayed in. So she might as well get a mandate for staying in.

By then it will be clear what a disaster Leaving would be - May will be hailed as a principled leader putting the country's interests first.

Thanks, RTB.

HPFA we can live in hope .

Thanks Red. I wonder if the torygraph links will have any effect, or whether they ( and Murdoch) are now discarded in favour of Dacre...

placemark..

I am a Labour supporter through and through and will vote Labour but I don't actually want Labour to win this election, but want there to be only a small Tory majority as the Tories have made the mess that is Brexit and they should have to try and sort.
My hope is Brexit will tear the Tory party apart within.

Crossed post HPFA. Appears we have similar hopes!

What if thou sweet May hast known
Mishap by worm and blight

My hope is Brexit will tear the Tory party apart within.
My hope too - certainly the Tory party as constituted since Mrs Thatchers day.

My leaver MP Richard Fuller sent his first computer generated flyer through the post yesterday. He used the words 'strong and stable' and 'strong stable leadership' twice within the space of 60 words and said nothing of substance at all. All against a not so subtle backdrop of the Union Jack. I feel embarrassed for him having to put his name to this kind of rubbish.

Bigchoc thanks for the Times and Telegraph links. They are very alarming. The Govt should take notice of these commentators.

The Guardian alleges that the Tory will publish a 'short manifesto, light on specific pledges.'

She wants to bounce through this election, with little close scrutiny of specific policies, in order to have a stronger mandate.
'The question will remain: a mandate for what?'

It's terrifying.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/29/observer-view-theresa-may-lack-credible-programme-general-election

www.heraldscotland.com/news/15255965.May_warned_over_fresh_Brexit_court_challenge/
May warned over fresh Brexit court challenge

Watt highlighted a section of the legislation which sets out that there must be a referendum if there is the “conferring on an EU institution or body of power to impose a requirement or obligation on the United Kingdom, or the removal of any limitation on any such power of an EU institution or body”.

He added that a separate line – providing for a referendum if the EU is given the power to impose sanctions on the UK – could also apply if the bloc is able to erect tariffs on UK goods and services.

Watt said: “The Prime Minister has refused to hold a further referendum on withdrawal from the European Union. She has overlooked the fact that Section 2 of the European Union Act 2011 requires a referendum before the United Kingdom can ratify any withdrawal or related trade agreement with the European Union.

Hmm.

www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/labour-donor-to-stand-against-corbyn-g9rl9hfbx
Labour donor to stand against Corbyn

One of Labour’s largest donors is to stand against Jeremy Corbyn in the general election, warning that he is leading the party to “annihilation at the polls”.

Michael Foster says traditional Labour voters are switching to the Conservatives because of Corbyn’s “incoherence, weakness and lack of leadership” and says they “pray every day” that he will stand down before the general election.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/jess-philliips-general-election-diary-2017
‘May says this is about stability. She should meet my constituents’
Jess Phillips (Labour MP for Yardley)

You might be really surprised to hear that no one barked Tory buzzwords “strong” or “stable” at me – but then I was talking to actual people, not weird, possessed drones plugged in to a mainframe. Susan in Tyseley said: “Oh, hello Jess – I was going to pop in to the office this week with my housing form for some help.” She did not say: “Bab, I’m ever so concerned about this coalition of chaos you’ve got mixed up with.” This is because Susan is not an imbecile.

And

This week, like every week, my office has remained open to the public who need help with their lives. But getting on with my job has been hampered by the election. I explain to residents that while I can act on their behalf as an MP for the moment, next week I’ll just be Jess and the wheels will turn a little more slowly. No biggy, you might think. But if your kid had gone missing with an ex-partner to another country you might not feel the same. You might want an MP working with the Foreign & Commonwealth Office.

It would be so wrong if we lose great MPs like Phillips because of this election.

www.politico.eu/article/uk-block-on-eu-spending-infuriates-brussels/
UK block on EU spending infuriates Brussels
Britain says it can’t approve budget measures due to the upcoming election — but EU leaders aren’t impressed.

Tick tock tick tock. Went the Brexit clock.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/public-health-england-nhs-department-of-health-doctors-of-the-world-immigrants-data-sharing-a7709856.html
Public Health England warns of 'serious risk' over Home Office data sharing

Sharing patients' personal details risks 'undermining public confidence in NHS' and could have 'unintended serious consequences' on health of individuals, warns PHE

This is important.

Doctors of the World UK, a health charity that runs clinics for undocumented migrants, victims of trafficking and asylum seekers, has said more than one in 10 of the charity's patients have refrained from going to a doctor or hospital because they feared arrest.

The crack down on immigration is turning us into inhumane monsters.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/29/tim-farron-defending-true-liberal-even-if-it-makes-us-queasy
Defend Tim Farron, a true liberal, even if it makes us queasy

To paraphrase the paraphrase of Voltaire, the liberal view of sexual tolerance used to be: “I may disapprove of who you take to bed, but I will defend to my death your right to bed them.” Just as liberals used to tolerate free speech, except when the speaker was inciting violence, so they allowed free love between consenting adults. Few now care about defending rights to the death. Many turn authoritarian and maintain you have no right to disapprove.

Very good article by Nick Cohen. "Don't ask if politicians respect you, ask if they respect your rights"

Very pleased to have read this article for personal reasons. It's not necessarily an endorsement of Farron but a critique of problems liberalism has got itself into.

In other completely none Brexit news:

Sky Sports News HQ @SkySportsNewsHQ
BREAKING: Sunderland have been relegated from the Premier League after losing 0-1 to Bournemouth. #SSNHQ

Sunderland condemed to irrelevance....

Thanks for another excellent summary rtb!

After much deliberation I think I'm going to hold my nose and vote labour after finding out the lib dems are fielding a brexiter candidate in my constituency
Like a pp they won't win but hopefully they will lessen the Tory majority

Sticky right now, but this could gather momentum too. Brighton leads the way.

^Discussions between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party are taking place in at least 25 constituencies across the country on ways to vote “tactically”, with enthusiasm for progressive alliances having gained momentum at a local level since the election was announced
In some cases, grassroots members have defied the national party by refusing to select a candidate in their constituency in order to increase the chances for other parties who have a higher chance of winning^.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-progressive-alliance-general-election-general-election-liberal-democrats-green-party-jeremy-a7709426.html

Sunderland condemed to irrelevance....
Noooooooo

Never forget 1973. Bob Stokoe's finest.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-progressive-alliance-general-election-general-election-liberal-democrats-green-party-jeremy-a7709426.html
Labour facing revolt as activists refuse to back candidates in bid to fight Theresa May’s plans for hard Brexit

Exclusive: Grassroots members defy national party by refusing to back local candidate as part of 'progressive alliance' with Liberal Democrats and Greens to help oust the Tories

Discussions between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party are taking place in at least 25 constituencies across the country on ways to vote “tactically”, with enthusiasm for progressive alliances having gained momentum at a local level since the election was announced.

In some cases, grassroots members have defied the national party by refusing to select a candidate in their constituency in order to increase the chances for other parties who have a higher chance of winning.

Constituencies mentioned in article:

South West Surrey Labour Party made a unanimous decision on Wednesday night not to back a Labour candidate
Jeremy Hunt's seat
Local party diverting funds and resources to defend Ealing's Rupa Huq. The Greens are standing aside here.

Brighton and Hove Labour diverting resources to Kemptown. The LDs have already stood down in favour of Green Caroline Lucas. Kemptown Greens are not standing a candidate.
Labour activists within Brighton and Hove Momentum have subsequently committed to concentrating its efforts on winning the Kemptown seat,

Ukip standing aside for Rees-Mogg and Philip Davies. (Talk of Greens and LDs standing down in favour of WEP candidate in Davies's Shipley)

Greens considering options in nine London seats which LDs and Labour are defending seats.

This is how and where tactical voting will work. When it's properly organised and coordinated at grassroots. And is recipiecated.

X post!

Am liking 'grass roots' and 'local'. Compares favourably with the May in her strong and stable helicopter.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-accuses-the-snp-of-wanting-to-disrupt-this-election-a7709681.html
Theresa May accuses the SNP of 'wanting to disrupt this election'

“They want to disrupt our Brexit negotiations by disrupting this election.”

Well yes. That's their JOB as opposition. Did you miss the memo? We didn't HAVE to have this election you said we didn't want or need but ended up calling anyway.

You only called it because you weren't getting your own way.

Didn't you know RTB - we are saboteurs?! - and what's more we are proud of being an opposition! It's called representing your constituents. Strange concept.

'disrupting elections' by standing? Is it just me or does that sound a bit Erdoganny?

You have to admire her nerve; election expenses election and all that. She's costing us a fortune in time, energy and money just to avoid 30 by elections. And the international publicity of an electoral fraud party. Even her favourite fascists might be a bit embarrassed by her.

Thanks for boosting SNP vote though and the remain coalition in England.