Westministenders: Up Shit Creek without Wifi.

[RedToothBrush]

Theresa May is being held hostage.

There is mounting evidence that all is not as it seems at CCHQ. It makes you don your tin foil hat and ask who is in charge.

Theresa May was a Remainer. She suddenly abandoned that when she became leader. Her proclamation of what would follow next seems directly at odds with her actions. This is not her fault. This is her plea for help and way of telling the outside world that she is a prisoner of Brexit.

At first it seemed like perhaps she had been locked up with Brexiteers for too long. She seemed to be developing a survival strategy which seemed totally irrational to outsiders. The signs of intimidation everywhere though. Instead of criticising those who did this, May joined in with them or was complicit in her silence.

Things are now taking a sinister turn. After repeatedly saying ‘No Election’, May crumbled and called one. She has now not been seen in public since. Instead she is being wheeled out at closed events to the party faithful. They are being dressed as mixing with the people but they are no such thing. The plebs in attendance are set to ‘mute’ or locked out completely.

Behold the coming of the May-Bot. She seeks to ‘prevent tourism’ in Wales. She now no longer knows which town she is currently in. (Much less have a plan for Brexit). She accuses an organisation set up to use its numbers to get better deals, of doing what it is supposed to, except she calls this ‘ganging up’.

May is not transported in a bus. Oh no. Instead she travels by the Bond Villian’s choice of transport; the helicopter.

More worrying still is the mantra ‘Strong and Stable’ repeated as many times as possible. It is almost as if, if she says it enough she might start believing it. She certainly has got her party members brainwashed and acting as if they were Zombies. Who needs ‘Spice’ when you are a Conservative? They ‘Believe’…

The ploy is to hoodwink people into voting for May instead of the Tories. CCHQ have removed Conservative branding from literature and campaigning in the North. The party are still too toxic, but May apparently scores well especially against Corbyn. Ironically however negatively I think of Corbyn he does display something May increasingly seems incapable of: humanity.

Many people might think of May as some sort of dictator figure. Its true. Every vote for her strengthens her hand. But not for Brexit negotiations. Mainly because Brexit is without merit or reward. Not unless you hold power. This is part 2 of the grab for it.

This is May’s power paradox. SHE is not powerful. She isn’t persuasive. She isn’t a healer of divides. She relies on authoritarian measures to get her way. This isn’t a sign of her personal power, but a sign of her personal weakness. She is sly and sneaky in her methods rather than compelling others to come along with her. They are doing so more because they dislike the alternative in Corbyn less.

She is not stable. She has lurched from one drama to the next, and has repeatedly been forced to back down from what she wanted. Nothing says ‘stability’ and ‘good leadership’ like appointing Boris Johnson Foreign Secretary. The lady is not so much for turning and leading, but is already staggering around dizzy whilst blindfolded playing pin the tail on the donkey. And Christ she’s got a lot of them in her Government. Including the numpty who decided to do a live event and broadcast it in an area with no wi-fi. Mind you, that is soon to be the entire country. Or what’s left of it.

She had said she had a mandate for Brexit and did not need this to be approved by the country as she was getting on with the job. This is why we are having a General Election to give her a mandate…

Not only that, but there is a lurking question here that should not be forgotten. Who is pulling May’s strings and making her dance as her actions are not natural? Every puppet show has puppet masters behind the scenes of the stage, hiding in the shadows.

They will dispense with their toy once she has outlived her usefulness like every good baddie.

Is she the one we should be most fearful of?

Hold on tight this is going to be a very bumpy ride over the next two years. Just how many casualties will be sacrificed on the altar of Brexit?

Burnham plus points:
Very nice guy with great rep. My mum has had personal dealings with and was impressed ( not easy)
Generally knows his stuff and gets involved
Supported Hillsborough. Has recently been campaigning for Orgreave
Is putting in 15% of salary to help homeless issue in Manchester

Negatives:
Has sounded ukiplite at times lately
Lacks a backbone and was criticised for fence sitting
Does thing to advance his career and occasionally comes across as insincere as a result

I suspect he's a good bloke who tries to hard at times out of his own ambition but generally is a good guy.

Id rather have more Andy Burnhams than a lot of other MPs I could name but won't. He's in the top half of the MP pond.

CopperRose, I don't think it was a case of people insisting rights could be guaranteed with the stroke of a pen. It was more a case of wishing TM would make a gesture of reassurance that the British government was moving in the direction of guaranteeing rights of EU citizens. This assurance never came.

Instead, there were tales in the press of families facing separation, people who had come to the UK and established relationships and a financial stake facing huge dislocation and loss, unfriendly noises about international students and an inquiry into deportation of foreign students already accomplished under TM as Home Secretary, stories of cold hearted bureaucrats, failure to express the utmost outrage over physical violence and verbal abuse of people speaking European languages in public, Poles beaten, and general flirting with the prospect of using immigrants as hostages.

So, is it simply a stroke of the pen - or is it layers and layers of complexity?

I don't think this is an accurate representation. The EU have clearly laid out their view about what rights EU citizens should have and how they should be enforced. Their aim for EU citizens rights to be guaranteed is clear. While we can accept that the process of finalising and negotiating the details is complex there is no reason why May could not do the same as the EU and stat clearly what her aim is and that she will work with the EU to ensure those rights are in place and agreed as early as possible. So far we have nothing of the sort leaving a lot of people unsure of their future or if they are even welcome here.

It actually would be not much more than the stroke of a pen for the UK to unilaterally guarantee the rights of people already here under EU law. Seriously, look up how often the Immigration Rules are amended without parliamentary approval. It could most definitely be done. What is complex is not doing it unilaterally.

Are we going to talk about Corbyn coming up to Manchester for a celebration rally and Burnham not being there?! I thought that was very telling. Burnham apparently wasn't officially invited anyway, and nor was Lucy Powell whose constituency it is. Burnham duly goes off celebrating elsewhere.

Canny move by both of them, I think. Corbyn gets to try and associate himself with the big Labour success of the day. Which this was, don't let there be any doubt about it. The vote was never going to be anything other than a coronation, but Burnham did even better than expected. For Sean Anstee to get only half of the votes Burnham did, in Tory controlled true blue Trafford, is big. The LDs not getting much of a protest vote in a conurbation where they've recently held seats and where many wards were well over 60% Remain is significant. And Burnham gets to not have to be photographed with Corbyn on his big day.

Hammond not Hague. (Sorry I've got flu).

I wonder which fallguy the Tories will choose as PM afterwards hmm
- Bojo ? He knows it would be a poisoned chalice. Would ego & ambition trump self-preservation?
- Liam, IDS ? Surely even Brexiters hate them too
- Davis ? He's stupid enough to accept

All the obvious contenders in the cabinet already have a black mark against them. But at the same time, given their involvement in Brexit, may have more of a shot.

Hammond was initially too remain, altho he seems to have embraced hard Brexit, and there's the whole budget u-turn on the self-employed.

Boris is known to be a bit of a liability and I think even Tories know that he's too immature and too much of a loose cannon for PM.

Davis is now known to be regarded as an imbecile by the EU and I'd have thought that that would deter Tories from electing him.

Fox is a weirdo and I think he's always been a bit of a lone wolf.

Otherwise I'd think it will go to one of the Whatsapp crew.

In the long term, Andy Burnham winning the most votes even in Conservative Trafford is a little ray of hope. As is the fact that 50% of Tory voters in London think Sadiq Khan is doing a good job. Credible Labour leaders and policies can win broad support - I simply have no idea of how we get back there.

At the moment TM seems to have stitched together a coalition of hard core Brexiteers and Remainers who are keeping their fingers crossed. Problem is, how does she keep this together when Brexit is a reality? Crashing out without a deal would keep the former happy but at the cost of enormous economic damage to the latter. A reasonable deal with the EU would be fine with the latter group but seen as a betrayal by the former.

May should have made a broad statement of intent wrt expats, but she didn't because she wants only her specific terms, which would wreck the lives of many expats.

The BIG difference between May and the E27 over expats:

The E27 want all expats to keep all their current rights e.g. heathcare, pensions, rights of spouse and DC , right of appeal to ECJ.

May wants to massively cut those rights to the bare minimum that non-EU immigrants have now.
That's unacceptable because the state should not be allowed to retrospectively change the fundamentals in which people organised their lives

May's tactics are to leave everything vague, so that the Home Office can "make life uncomfortable" for every E27 expat who isn't regarded as useful, i.e. any SAHP, carers, pensioners, those on low income.

The EU - when dealing with "third countries," which the Uk will become after Brexit - always insists on the exact terms of any deal being defined
(quite different to the wiggle room for EU members, including the UK before)

For Sean Anstee to get only half of the votes Burnham did, in Tory controlled true blue Trafford, is big. The LDs not getting much of a protest vote in a conurbation where they've recently held seats and where many wards were well over 60% Remain is significant

If you were a Remainer voting against the Cons you'd put Burnham down as your first choice and LDs as your second if you thought it likely to be between Lab and Cons only.

This applies even for strong LD supporting areas.

That Trafford behaved like this suggests that Trafford will vote for who they think has a better chance against the Tory. Plus Trafford is made up of three constituencies: Stretford and Urmston, Altrincham and Sale West and Wythenshawe and Sale East. Two are Labour, one is Conservative. The vote split between Labour and Cons doesn't say as much as you think.

Don't read as much as you are into it. Constituencies will behave differently at the GE.

I remember vividly being shown the world map and how much of it was painted pink, and having the warm glow of superiority cultivated in me. As a reward when you got to a certain stage in the oh so boring white and middle class Janet and John you were rewarded by being given Little Black Sambo to read. I don't know if it was being dyslexic but I absolutely loathed Janet and John and the reward had the opposite effect I suppose it was meant to but still it was othering.

I have since realised/been taught that The Empire was not just othered it was also feminised. It was a she, it was pink, it was naturally subjugated...... Though of course ruled by the ultimate matronly matriarchal mother figure.....

Yes these were the influences on the baby boomers

I watched some of the hustings for the Manchester mayor - Andy Burnham barely needed to speak as most of the others were so useless. He was the obvious choice as a city needs a big name as its mayor. I didn't really consider anyone else.

I'm a bit sceptical about him - I see him as an opportunist (but then aren't lots of politicians? Maybe he doesn't hide it so well) and a bit lightweight, a bit insincere. But, I've family members (of both shades, politically) who've met him informally and been really impressed by him. (One of whom (the Tory-leaning one) also met Caroline Flint and was really impressed by her maybe Tories are more easily impressed )

I think the reason lots of decent Labour MPs are keeping their heads down is to avoid association with Corbyn to protect their future prospects. I like to think Khan might be a future Labour leader after his London mayor tenure is up. Would be an obvious choice and I was disappointed he wasn't available for nomination in 2015.

"Swedish - that's what Dan Hodges speculated about in the MoS a few weeks ago - in fact, before TM called the election."

Yikes, not sure I like having the same thoughts as Dan Hodges .

Depends what you mean by constituencies will behave differently Red. I think they'll behave the same as they usually do in GEs wrt Labour and Tory, and the same as in the mayoral vote wrt LDs.

For me the main thing here was the LD failure to capitalise. I live in Manchester, and wanted Burnham but protest voted LD first because of Brexit. Labour 2nd, safe in the knowledge Burnham would win comfortably. Didn't give any real consideration to a Conservative threat because there wasn't one. I thought more people might do the same in Manchester, Trafford and Stockport but it seems not. You're talking about a conurbation that held several LD parliamentary seats in the noughties, all in areas that are now heavily Remain. People had an opportunity to register a protest vote without any real risk of not getting a Labour win, and didn't take it.

Wythenshawe and Sale East isn't going anywhere other than Labour. Even the Trafford portion of the seat isn't all affluent, by any means. Some poor estates there. Sale West and Altrincham will remain Tory: if they didn't lose it in 97, they never will, and in any case Anstee polled relatively strongly there yesterday.

It's wards like Urmston and Flixton. They have been gentrifying quite rapidly, house prices are rising and the sort of people who'd have bought in Sale 10 years ago and might have just about managed to afford Altrincham 25 years ago are in Urmston now. Natural centrist territory. They could be quite receptive to a moderate Tory message nationally, but that's not happening. However they are also not fertile Corbyn territory either. Would go New Labour if it were still a thing.

I'm not sure I agree, MissShitty (sorry for calling you that ). I wanted to positively vote Labour - I don't get many opportunities to do that. And with the northern and eastern parts of Greater Manchester being Leave, I felt the threat would be from the Tories.

But, remember, turnout was only about 30%.

Lol.

Yeah I mean people obviously did think like you, rather than like me. It's just there was never the slightest chance of Burnham not winning this. Which borough are you in? I am City of Manchester, so it was even more of a coronation than the others!

It's wards like Urmston and Flixton. They have been gentrifying quite rapidly, house prices are rising and the sort of people who'd have bought in Sale 10 years ago and might have just about managed to afford Altrincham 25 years ago are in Urmston now.

The age of people moving into Flixton and Urmston is younger. They won't go Tory even soft Tory. It's a choice between Labour and the LDs in that age group. Since house prices are lower it's naturally more Labour. The slightly older and slightly better off are moving to more traditionally LD areas (Didsbury and overspill into Chorlton and Stretford, Wythenshaw, the Heatons or simply use Urmston as a stepping stone to those or further out to Knutsford / South Warrington). Urmston and Flixton are becoming a lot nicer but I'd still say they have a little way to go before they really start to be put in the same bracket. They are just about affordable but not trendy yet. I give it 5 years tops.

It's to do with the age of people buying not whether they are similar to people who were Tory 10 or 25 years ago.

Things have changed.

I wouldn't say house prices are lower there, not any more. Increasingly the more desirable Urmston 3 bedders are creeping towards 250k. That's actually not cheap even for the southern half of the conurbation. You could be a youngish couple doing quite well by local standards and still not be able to get a mortgage there. That would not have been the case in the 90s. This is what I mean about demographic change. They are certainly not in the same bracket as Didsbury or a Heaton, but they're definitely becoming more desirable. It's the grammars (which Didsbury and the Heatons do not have...).

The people I know there, youngish parents, are not likely to give much house room to the idea of the current Tory administration, but if there were a more one nation candidate running against Corbyn, it might be different. There has never really been a meaningful LD presence there and no sign of one now: this is what I am surprised about as I did think there might be more of one at the mayoral election.

I expect the seat to remain Labour next month but with a reduced majority. There are areas of pro Corbyn support in Greater Manchester, like the Manchester Central seat, but that is not one of them.

Also, I'm not sure what you're saying about Wythenshawe there. but it really doesn't have a lot in common with the other areas you list. It's not a traditional LD area and nor is it somewhere that better off people move to. The exact opposite in fact.

her skin to fall off to reveal her hidden robotic core

I am now imagining TM as a Slitheen...

Increasingly the more desirable Urmston 3 bedders are creeping towards 250k.

That's cheap compared to nearby areas and precisely why people I know moved there. Couldn't get a three bedroom in a 'nicer' area. Can't afford it.

Depends what you mean by nearby. It's cheap compared to Altrincham and cheaper than much of Sale, both of which are also in Trafford though rather further south. It's not cheap compared to the neighbouring Stretford and Old Trafford. Bear in mind there are still a lot of family homes in Greater Manchester for well under half of that price.

But yes, exactly, people are moving there who couldn't afford three bedrooms in 'nicer' areas and these are people in the sort of job brackets who would have been able to afford Sale and maybe even Altrincham not so long ago. Whose equivalents/parents voted Blair in 97 and 01, maybe even 05 but not since, and who aren't fertile Corbyn or May territory. Centrist types.

What I mean there, if I wasn't clear, is that the sort of job and income where Urmston is the best you can afford if you're early 30s now, is the sort of job and income where you could have afforded Sale if you were that age and stage in the 00s. Maybe even Altrincham if you were lucky in the mid 90s. Ie where you're at, in income terms, compared to the peer group. If you're a couple getting established before having kids and you earn 60k combined, you can probably afford Urmston but ten years ago that would have got you Sale.

It's a lot harder for the under 35s to afford a family home in Sale than it used to be and much, much harder to get Altrincham (and that's one hypothesised reason for the relative demise of Altrincham town centre earlier this decade, young families not being able to afford it anymore and a disproportionate number of the big houses locally being overoccupied by one and two person pensioner households).

So if you're a couple aged early 30s and certainly late 20s, and you've bought in Urmston or Davyhulme, you're doing a lot better relative to the peer group than the people who owned that same home in the 90s and 00s were, relative to theirs. If that makes sense. The housing situation has sort of pushed everyone under 40 down a rung, down two if you're under 35.

Locally, where we didn't have local elections, the results are seen as encouraging. Apparently the Libdems did particularly well in areas where they had a strong organisation on the ground, and particularly in the seats they are targeting.

Slow mover, this thread. Lasted a whole week.