Boris outmaneovered. Et tu Gove & Corbyn? The Westministenders Hunger Games Continues

[RedToothBrush]

Following the Machiavellian Govian shambles? Utterly gobsmacked at the Labour clusterfuck?

Who will strike next?

Who will the shadowy hand of Osborne back?
Can Gove be launched back into space and back to the planet he came from?
Can May save the country from almost certain doom?
Will Leadsom patronise us all to death (whilst silently stabbing people in the back with a sweet smile)?
Can Johnson make a decision he can stick to, and can we persuade him to give up being a politician?
Will Steven Crabb get rid of that god awful beard?

Will Corbyn shoot himself in the other foot?
Will Angela Eagle get a spine and just stand?
Who the fuck is Owen Smith?
Will the Blairites be foiled and damned?
Are momentum a bunch of thugs or a force for a better, for the people?

Will Farage disappear back under his rock?
Will people wake up to Arron Banks?
What will Dominic Cummings destroy next?

Have we seen a coup d'état?
How do we improve democracy and representation?

All these questions and more.
Sense of humour compulsory. No experience necessary though

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1 Previous thread 1

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2672388-Has-Boris-been-outmanoevered-Will-someone-please-tell-me-who-is-in-charge Previous thread 2

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/a2673982-Have-Boris-and-Jeremy-been-stabbed-in-the-back-Please-can-we-have-some-leaders Previous thread 3

Ah, okay. Wasn't sure if that's what you meant when you said "The fact that she won't go for it now..." I misunderstood.

I'm not surprised GingerIvy.

Nate Silver is adamant that he can't win though, and he's always spookily right

Experience?
Leadsom is further to the right of the party than May? (they will be concerned about loosing moderate Tory voters to the Lib Dems)
Public

Trump: Too many people are being complacent about him. He will do better than people are prepared for. The simple reason for this - labelling supporters as 'stupid' and not getting what he is really about because of intellectual blinkers. I'm worried.

The thing with Trump is that he's playing to the people that feel the government has ignored them, and those that want change. Their Presidential elections could mirror our referendum. Close, with a surprise outcome.

Isn't the issue with uncertainty that no on will invest in the UK while the future of its relationship with the EU is unclear?

May has form for lack of sympathy to asylum seekers. I would be concerned about a very hard line on immigration if we had her.

Public perception was what I was trying to say...

A friend did try and reassure me that Trump's chances were slim due to the electoral college system in the US.

You have to win so many electoral votes, and each state has so many electoral votes allocated to it by state. Unlike the referendum its not a straight 'popularity contest'.

The map here shows where they are both currently likely to be based on the traditional vote split and latest polls.
www.270towin.com/maps/clinton-trump-electoral-map

This leaves between 11 and 14 states that are 'undecided' that Trump needs to win whereas Hilary only needs a couple in theory.

Or so the school of popular thought goes.

Think of it more as lots of EU referendums going on, on a state by state basis rather than one vote.

I'm still not convinced - though admittedly the EU referendum could be clouding my judgement somewhat here. I just think that Trump is a force that isn't understood by political commentators and that Brexit has shown its potential power.

Should explain 270 electoral votes is 50% - Hilary is thought to be on around 205 to Trumps 139 at the moment, with the rest to be fought over.

Theresa May has said there's no guarantee that people from the UK abroad, and people from the EU who have settled here will be able to stay where they are. That will have to be negotiated.

Trump: Too many people are being complacent about him. He will do better than people are prepared for. The simple reason for this - labelling supporters as 'stupid' and not getting what he is really about because of intellectual blinkers. I'm worried. Me too. As Farage said to the EU parliament... 'you all laughed at me – well I have to say, you’re not laughing now, are you?'

I think that's the responsible stance to take, isn't it? She's not saying that she wants to mess with them, only that she cannot say for certain what will happen.

I didn't think Trump could gain traction - the man is a caricature of all that is wrong in the US - but look at him now. It's sobering. And worrying.

What is concerning is you just reminded me of:

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.

Reminds me of Bob Monkhouse

"They laughed when I said I wanted to be a comedian. They're not laughing now!"

😂😂😂😂

If Clinton didn't have the problematic issues she has, I wouldn't be concerned, but that combined with Trump's push, I think there's a bit of wobble room there.

You'd think Blair would have more important things to worry about than spouting off repeatedly about Brexit and saying we shouldn't do it.

Blair: 'Let's keep our options open'
Posted at
13:03
Tony Blair: 'Let's keep our Brexit options open'
Former prime minister Tony Blair has told R4's The World This Weekend that the UK should keep its Brexit options open, adding that if the public changes its mind then that should be reflected.

I wish he would shut his hole.

But I'm not sure there are many more important things.

The rule should be that Blair is banned from all important matters.

I suppose there's a possibility that Blair is trying to deflect attention from Chilcot report?

I wish he would shut his hole.

Thanks Red for a very helpful thread.

I am wishfully hoping that some Remain lawyer can find a way of arguing that the government was incompetent in the design and implementation of this referendum - ie it's proportional representation for the first time(?) people didn't understand? We vote for governments every 5 years choosing a political party which is reversible, this isn't and this is a far more complex issue and an irreversible decision. Both campaigns were not entirely truthful, but Leave especially so and several major lies were revealed only the day after the result... Etc etc.

Or maybe I've just watched too much Good Wife

Having seen the innards of politics and the media in action this week I'm sure he is trying to deflect from the Chilcot report and trying to tap into the heightened emotions of a lot of us to generate good feeling towards him they wouldn't usually feel by saying something he knows full well a big percentage of the country desperately want to hear however philosophical they are trying to be about Brexit.. Think he might be onto a hiding to nowhere at the moment with that though. i will put my hand up to having fallen for his 1997 campaign.

That is hard to hear re EU citizens but I guess at this point in time there are no certainties about anything and better she doesn't make promises she can't keep?

Colouringagain, funny you should say that, I have been bingewatching the Goodwife the last few weeks !

That is hard to hear re EU citizens but I guess at this point in time there are no certainties about anything and better she doesn't make promises she can't keep?

Actually, she could keep a promise to our EU citizen neighbours.

That she won't make one to keep them in hand as bargaining chips is horrible.

I love NS for putting that pn the table.

Meanwhile, we are still being denied an opposition. 😠

Doin, I'm trying really hard to be impartial as DD now resident in an EU country as of last month and I am desperate for someone to promise not to worry, it will all be fine and mean it !