Boris outmaneovered. Et tu Gove & Corbyn? The Westministenders Hunger Games Continues

[RedToothBrush]

Following the Machiavellian Govian shambles? Utterly gobsmacked at the Labour clusterfuck?

Who will strike next?

Who will the shadowy hand of Osborne back?
Can Gove be launched back into space and back to the planet he came from?
Can May save the country from almost certain doom?
Will Leadsom patronise us all to death (whilst silently stabbing people in the back with a sweet smile)?
Can Johnson make a decision he can stick to, and can we persuade him to give up being a politician?
Will Steven Crabb get rid of that god awful beard?

Will Corbyn shoot himself in the other foot?
Will Angela Eagle get a spine and just stand?
Who the fuck is Owen Smith?
Will the Blairites be foiled and damned?
Are momentum a bunch of thugs or a force for a better, for the people?

Will Farage disappear back under his rock?
Will people wake up to Arron Banks?
What will Dominic Cummings destroy next?

Have we seen a coup d'état?
How do we improve democracy and representation?

All these questions and more.
Sense of humour compulsory. No experience necessary though

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1 Previous thread 1

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2672388-Has-Boris-been-outmanoevered-Will-someone-please-tell-me-who-is-in-charge Previous thread 2

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/a2673982-Have-Boris-and-Jeremy-been-stabbed-in-the-back-Please-can-we-have-some-leaders Previous thread 3

Nobody British can promise you that.

But if Nicola Sturgeon's promise was made unilaterally by us, it would be very hard for the EU not to respond in kind.

Surely nobody reasonable wants repatriation of our EU neighbours and friends?

They are already here.

Whatever we work out from here on out, these are people who have chosen to live with us and be part of our country?

I'm more sympathetic than many to the "uncontrolled immigration" argument, but I find the idea that we won't support people who moved in the full expectation that their move was a legitimate and welcome one quite chilling.

Sorry, I think it's irresponsible to promise something she may not be able to deliver on. That doesn't mean she is giving up on them, or not bothered. But she has to be truthful IMO. She cannot guarantee what will happen.

Of course she could deliver on existing EU nationals in the UK being able to stay.

She's the Home Secretary ffs.

She doesn't want to.

She is prepared to use their weelbeing as a bargaining chip.

That's our new PM, that is.

😢

Is it really entirely up to just her? And she certainly can't control what the EU does about British citizens living throughout the EU.

It is mostly up to her.

No, she can't stop the EU being dicks to EU citizens, but a move like that will play very well in Europe and will bring enormous moral pressure to bear.

Apologies to turn the conversation back to Trump, but did you see he was wining and dining Murdoch and Jerry Hall last weekend?

I was very pleased to see the neighbours at Trump's Aberdeen golf course flying Mexican flags.

Think how harshly she would be judged if she guaranteed it would be okay, and she wasn't able to deliver. The public's tolerance of lies and broken campaign promises is pretty low at the moment.

I cannot see any reason why the UK cannot give unilateral residency assurance with regards to EU residents in the UK. For a bit of perspective the Scottish Universities have already made some moves in this direction by guaranteeing funding and course places for existing EU students. I think it may also be possible that the whole question of residency arrangements for EU Nationals could be devolved to Scotland. This would reflect the differing demographics and referendum result.

Red It looks from your map that the US election will come down to Florida again. I was there during the hanging chads which elected Bush. I don't think the current status gives much comfort to Clinton as just as here there are safe States and swing States. The Swing states all look to still be in play.

The Swiss article is fascinating. There is a LOT of spin in there. Does anyone know if Switzerland is a net contributor? I assume so in which case if the EU removes funding they can easily replace it domestically. I assume there are far fewer Swiss nationals in the EU than the other way round but I may be wrong? The trade imbalance does not really persuade me as I assume international financials are far more significant in the Swiss economy than anything else. Would be interested in amount of imbalance which is accounted for by trade with UK.

I don't think 100 declarations for May tells you much. That still leaves 200+ still in play. Tories are also notorious for changing horses midway or indeed pledging allegiance one way in public and another when actually voting. ( I've got Some People Want to fill the World with Silly Gove Songs going through my head #GoveSongs)

I cannot see any reason why the UK cannot give unilateral residency assurance with regards to EU residents in the UK.

Me neither.

We other than wanting to use them as bargaining chips.

Which is an example of why a proper opposition is so important.

Mr Crabb warned of deep divisions in the Conservative Party if his colleagues continue to describe themselves as "Leave" or "Remain".

"I tell you, if we allow this leadership contest to be seen just through the prism of whether you are 'Leave' or 'Remain' we risk splitting the party - mark my words," the work and pensions secretary, who campaigned for a Remain vote, told Peston on Sunday.

Mr Crabb does speak wisely...

I find the idea that we won't support people who moved in the full expectation that their move was a legitimate and welcome one quite chilling. It's in line with May's record. She's done this before - retroactively pull the rug under the feet of people who had moved to the UK in good faith.

Former Lib Dem leader Lord Ashdown has been talking about the need for a new "movement" to capitalise on dissatisfaction with conventional party politics.

He says he is not proposing a new political party, but a new "movement" based on core principles including tolerance, voting reform and closing the gap between rich and poor.

For this to happen, he says, the "progressive centre" of politics would have to "abandon tribalism a bit".

....as does this man.

About Trump, there is one very big difference with the Brexit vote, which is that pollsters have had ample opportunity to test their assumptions and models, thanks to the dozens of primaries he's fought. He's not unknown quantity in electoral/polling terms, in the way the Brexit vote was.

I would not want US media to get complacent, because that would be very risky indeed. But the numbers are looking good for Hilary right now.

Where is the link to the Swiss article?
I remember being amazed that if someone applies for residency in Switzerland the locals are able to vote yay or nay. So if they don't like you you don't get in!!

Theresa May was supposed to control immigration over this last term. Reduce numbers to 10s not 100s of thousands. She didn't do this at all, had she done it the vote might have been different - could it have been deliberate?? she certainly had information that Remain wasn't a dead cert (unlike Boris) hence keeping quiet about her views.

MissMargie it was mathematically absolutely impossible to hit the tens of thousands target. The problem was the unrealistic and arbitrary target, not May's work.

Believe me she did everything she could, including separating families, making it impossible for Brits to live in their own country, deporting law-abiding students and reneging on previous promises believed in good faith by immigrants. Don't worry, she is suitably ruthless and pitiless.

Legal challenge on Article 50 by Mishcon de Reya

I think this article by Nick Clegg is very good: www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/03/britain-general-election-before-article-50

www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/03/eu-swiss-single-market-access-no-free-movement-citizens
Swiss article.

howabout, I confess to not having a clue about Switzerland, so I've tried to look up a few things that might be worth reflecting on:

1. The Swiss economy is currently balanced. They do not have a huge public debt like the UK
2. In 2014 exports were worth CHF 208.4 billion versus CHF 178.8 billion in imports. They are therefore a net exporter. By contrast the UK we are currently a net importer (this gap has got worse in the last ten years)
3. The current deal the Swiss have with the EU is that apart from agriculture, there are minimal economic and trade barriers between the European Union and Switzerland. it took four years of negotiations to reach this agreement covering seven sectors: research, public procurement, technical barriers to trade, agriculture, civil aviation, land transport, and the free movement of persons.
4. Switzerland is subsidising more than 70% of its agriculture compared to 35% in the EU. It is extremely protectionist. Protectionism acts to promote domestic production, but not to reduce prices or the cost of production. 90 to 100% of potatoes, vegetables, pork, veal, cattle and most milk products, are produced in the country. Beyond that, Swiss agriculture meets sixty-five per cent of the domestic food demand.
5. The distribution of wealth in Switzerland is actually worse than the UK, with there being: The high average wealth is explained by a comparatively high number of individuals who are extremely wealthy and says nothing about a typical Swiss citizen. The median wealth of a Swiss adult (50th percentile) is five times lower than the average
6. Exports / Imports 21% exports and 29% imports - Germany. 9.1% exports and 6.7% imports - United States. 8.6% exports and 10% imports - Italy. 8% exports and 8.1% imports - France. 4.6% exports and 3.7% imports - Austria. 3.6% exports and 2% imports - Japan. 3.1% exports and 2.5% imports - China. 1.2% exports and 2.3% imports - Turkey.

By contrast the UK
10.8% exports and 14.9% imports - Germany.
10.4% exports and 6.5% imports - United States.
8.1% exports and 7.8% imports - The Netherlands.
7.2% exports - Switzerland.
6.5% exports and 6.1% imports - France.
6.4% exports - Ireland (FRIEND - they are dependant on us)
4.5% exports and 5.2% - Belgium.
9% imports - China.
4.1% imports - Italy. (FRIEND!)

What does all mean? We are going to have to invest MASSIVELY in our agriculture if the rebate is removed. We are not currently anywhere near as self sufficient as Switzerland in this, and this is going to HAVE to change (If you want to help our prospects post-Brexit, the best and most important thing you can do now, is seriously consider what is in your shopping trolley and where it has been produced).

It means we are going to seriously address our trade deficient. It is totally unsustainable.

BUY BRITISH AND START DOING IT NOW

The Swiss need to more access to the European market than perhaps we do as they are net exporter, but we are more dependant on the European market and we have a massive change in culture that we are going to have to face.

Put in that context our finance sector is even more important - as it is one of the things we DO export a lot of. If we take that out of the equation, our trade deficient is utterly horrific.

Being out of the EU has not helped Switzerland in terms of wealth inequality. Its worse. (Is it free movement of people? possibly/possibly not - Not going to answer that question myself). Workers rights are not as good in Switzerland compared to the UK.

Two years to do a deal? When it took the Swiss four and they are currently trying do a new one (and are rapidly running out of time)? Time is NOT on our side.

My point is that I think the Swiss actually have a set of cards which is overall, stronger than ours. Whilst they are under pressure to do a deal, their economy is in a far better state and has less issues to deal with, if a deal isn't easily found.

This is why I've always found the idea of the Swiss model as one for us to base ourselves on, as rather poor.

If the Swiss can't do a deal on free movement of people, we are REALLY going to struggle. Especially when we CAN NOT sacrifice the city to do it.

So of course the EU are going to do everything they can to resist giving in to the Swiss now...

I'm surprised there's not been a legal challenge on the vacuity of the question, tbh.

Which choice do you want - A. The stats quo or B. Something we can't describe because no-one actually knows what it is?

It's as though there's a feeling of 'oh it's all done and dusted now, no point dredging up the past'.

Something the Swiss example shows is that the EU is very unlikely to agree to an absolute cap on immigration, if they agree on controls it will be of the Swiss type - no right to stay if unemployed, maybe cap on certain specific sectors.

I think UKIP still has a bright future

Edith that's a very interesting link. O also see the Mishcon website has a dedicated contact page for those interested in joining the action.

I'd guess the claimants are financial services / banks who'll potentially be forced to incur massive relocation costs to continue current business modeld if A50 is pushed through without a parliamentary vote (but who can fairly expect article 50 will not be invoked if it is subject to a parliamentary vote) but we'll see...if correct, the sums on the table may be high enough for the PM to follow legal process.

Feeling desperately cautiously hopeful reading this

A guy called Dominic Speelman is crowdfunding to sue Farage and Boris re referendum.. Will try and link...

Stephen Crabb ‏@scrabbmp · 3h3 hours ago
I would allow EU citizens already in UK to continue their lives here, and expect same for Brits in EU. People are not bargaining chips

Genuinely starting to think if it goes to round two it has to be May v Crabbe.

He makes my skin crawl.

www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/that-andrea-leadsom-sounds-like-a-right-fking-nightmare-says-britain-20160703110101