Boris outmaneovered. Et tu Gove & Corbyn? The Westministenders Hunger Games Continues

[RedToothBrush]

Following the Machiavellian Govian shambles? Utterly gobsmacked at the Labour clusterfuck?

Who will strike next?

Who will the shadowy hand of Osborne back?
Can Gove be launched back into space and back to the planet he came from?
Can May save the country from almost certain doom?
Will Leadsom patronise us all to death (whilst silently stabbing people in the back with a sweet smile)?
Can Johnson make a decision he can stick to, and can we persuade him to give up being a politician?
Will Steven Crabb get rid of that god awful beard?

Will Corbyn shoot himself in the other foot?
Will Angela Eagle get a spine and just stand?
Who the fuck is Owen Smith?
Will the Blairites be foiled and damned?
Are momentum a bunch of thugs or a force for a better, for the people?

Will Farage disappear back under his rock?
Will people wake up to Arron Banks?
What will Dominic Cummings destroy next?

Have we seen a coup d'état?
How do we improve democracy and representation?

All these questions and more.
Sense of humour compulsory. No experience necessary though

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1 Previous thread 1

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2672388-Has-Boris-been-outmanoevered-Will-someone-please-tell-me-who-is-in-charge Previous thread 2

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/a2673982-Have-Boris-and-Jeremy-been-stabbed-in-the-back-Please-can-we-have-some-leaders Previous thread 3

US politics and its system is even more farcical than British politics!

US politics make Britain look like a democratic utopia.

Obama has changed his stance too.

Or so it was reported on the BBC on Friday.

The Trump empire has serious investments in Scotland and he likes his golf. A trade deal with the UK would be his number 1 priority. It would also pee off all of Europe so he looks more reasonable when he refuses to do a deal with the EU.

No idea how him and the Nippy Sweetie are going to patch things up though.

Maybe so DoinItFine

My sense was that Obama had softened the tone but not moved on the substance, but I could be wrong

I don't think Switzerland are going to be too happy with us at the moment. The EU is going to make them an example for our benefit:

www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/03/eu-swiss-single-market-access-no-free-movement-citizens

How this develops is definitely going to be worth watching.

Chilcot is starting to break a little in today's newspapers. There is already suggestion that the International Criminal Court has said they won't prosecute Bliar but might prosecute British soldiers. There are quite a few stories running on it today, but the Guardian one is interesting as it focuses on the public trust angle.
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jul/02/chilcot-iraq-inquiry-must-restore-public-trust-bush-blair-philippe-sands
I note the last paragraph:
“The thing I found really shocking when I was researching this was the absence of a plan and a complete failure to make any kind of preparation for the postwar aftermath or even consider what the aftermath might be,” said Steven Kettell, associate professor in politics and international studies at the University of Warwick. “It was criminal negligence on an industrial scale.”
Which obviously feeds into the whole saga we currently have going on.

There is also a story in the Independent about how Bliar could be impeached under an old law:
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tony-blair-chilcot-inquiry-iraq-war-report-impeach-law-a7115266.html

This is an interesting article on the history of British politics, and the idea of a new party forming out of Brexit, including the more central part of the Labour party, the Liberal Democrats and more moderate parts of the Conservative party as well as a more socialist party.
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-britain-the-way-forward-for-the-centre-left-a7114171.html
Personally I don't think this will happen, but its an interesting discussion that I think some of this will be highly relevant over the coming weeks.

Polling has revealed that most Conservatives back the Home Secretary to replace David Cameron.

Ms May was backed by 60% of Tory voters, with Mr Gove second on 10 points and Mrs Leadsom on six, according to the ICM poll for The Sun on Sunday.

Among party members, who will vote to decide the winner of the leadership contest, some 46% say she would make the best prime minister.

This is a big difference, and I do wonder how the party membership will split when and if the contest goes to two candidates.

Sorry, a lot there, but I think this will shape a lot of the week ahead.

""I do wonder if the EU are going to give us a 'shit or get off the pot' deadline, for a firm commitment either way."

Expect strong rumbling on that between the US election result and before the new President is inaugurated, if we haven't set a timetable out ourselves."

I agree uncertainty is not good but the EU cannot force us to serve the notice.We could take 100 years over serving it if we wanted to under the law.
I favour Brexit-Lite (EEA/Norwegian option) with May in charge. If the brexit lot don't like that (even though it does what the referendum says on the tin - we leave the EU) they can vote in a different party in 2020.

Red tooth - it is interesting. On the party members, do you know the split for other candidates? It might be worth considering who the obvious choice to switch allegiances to.

Leadsom is the obvious choice for dm online commentators who are pretty furious with the mails pro TM stance. They believe she will be the hardline leaver triggering a50 straight away.

This is making me worried!

Just found you! I do enjoy your threads Red.

"Leadsom is the obvious choice for dm online commentators who are pretty furious with the mails pro TM stance. They believe she will be the hardline leaver triggering a50 straight away."

Leadsom was on Andrew Marr this morning and said herself that she will trigger a50 immediately if she wins the leadership race.

I have a horrible feeling Leadsom will get in.

We could take 100 years over serving it if we wanted to under the law.

It's not the law that is going to determine this.

It's hard to imagine that anyone could argue that a century old referendum is something that has any legal force at all.

Leadsom is the obvious choice for dm online commentators who are pretty furious with the mails pro TM stance. Yes it's like some sort of weird fan club for Brexiters. Their other darling is Nigel Farage.
She gives me the heebee jeebies to use a political term.

I've seen the split, but I'm damned if I can find it again now!

If memory serves correctly I THINK none of the candidates had more than 12% - there was certainly no obviously challenger and the difference between the rest of them wasn't much.

This survey is doing the rounds on twitter. I am trying to find the original source but I'm struggling to. It was posted by Mark Fox (a conservative party member who is Chief Executive of the Business Services Association and a former Parliamentary Candidate and seems to be a very active member of the wider party). He obviously is Team May, but it is interesting to see how she is being pushed from within the party itself.

The latest declared MP tally is:
May: 103
Gove: 25
Leadsom: 24
Crabb: 21
Fox: 8
source: conservativehom.com

sorry, conservativehome.com

This is a very interesting (measured and intelligent) comment from a Tory on UKIP and Brexit from the site.

Its well worth a read:
www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/07/luke-de-pulford-farage-and-a-terrible-truth-for-tory-leavers-we-may-loathe-him-but-we-needed-him.html

Also this is another point of view on a Brexiteer needing to be a choice in the leadership race:
www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/07/the-tory-leadership-britain-needs-a-choice-not-a-coronation-and-may-says-she-agrees.html

Interesting points and comment on the site all round.

I agree uncertainty is not good but the EU cannot force us to serve the notice.We could take 100 years over serving it if we wanted to under the law.

If our uncertainty and delay in triggering A50 creates a problem for the EU, they can create problems for us. It would not be in our best interests to piss off the EU this way. There is nothing to stop them from stalling negotiations until the 2 year time limit is close, then throw down the gauntlet and say "this is what we're offering, take it or leave it, as we're not going to agree on any additional time." And utterly screw us over.

I think the US can really only be an unknown for us for the next 6 months. So much rides on elections, and who ends up in power. I agree that if Trump wins, the US will likely be putting out fires of their own for awhile.

So between Leadsom and May what are the differences we're looking at, other than Leadsom will trigger A50 sooner than May.

Leadsom has not ruled out having Farage on her Brexit negotiation team

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/andrea-leadsom-refuses-to-rule-out-nigel-farage-being-on-brexit-talks-team-dismisses-hypocrite-charge-after-saying-brexit-would-be-a-disaster-for-our-economy_uk_5778fa19e4b0c9460800dd87

103 for May is what I thought. She'll win. I suspect she will win without it having to go to the Tory members rather than MPs as the Tory MPs will reach agreement on May.

I wasn't being serious over 100 years. If we are going to follow the referendum result then we need to give notice fairly soon. I don't think an extra year delay though is wrong and could be in the country's interest. However I suspect 1 Jan 2017 is indeed more likely to serve the notice. We can't force the EU to negotiate anything. Instead we leave 2 years after. I doubt they would refuse an application to remain in the EEA however so may be that's the solution.

Theresa "let's secede from the ECHR has always given me the heebeejeebies.

The fact that she won't go for it now due to lack kf suppory doesn't make me think her ethical framework is to be relied upon.

Doin You think May will back out of A50?

I think Trump would push for a UK trade deal fast, and he's have Congress on his side. He's running on a protectionist anti-free trade platform, but it's actually code for "no more Mexicans". I'm sure he'd be fine with nice white wealthy Britain.

All moot though because he's not going to win. I really really really don't think so. Unless Hilary's FBI audience went really terribly.

While I expect Clinton to win, I know a LOT of seemingly nice normal midwestern people that 100% support Trump. Bit scary.

You think May will back out of A50?

No.

No Tory will.

She'll do as she's told and trigger in the new year.