How many kids do you know definitely leaving private for state?

[Quodraceratops]

I'd be very interested to know how many children people know of who are definitely leaving their private school for a state school - not people with plans to do so in future years, solely those definitely going now / in 2025.
For myself - large Scottish all years school, I only have knowledge of my early primary kids's classes - no-one leaving so far (but I'm guessing early primary may be less affected as Labour have been signalling this policy for a while so you wouldn't start if you couldn't afford VAT).

on average which do you think have higher chance for contextual offering?

one of the eligibility of Cambridge reconsideration pool: maintained sector post 16.

this is just an example.

www.undergraduate.study.cam.ac.uk/apply/after/reconsideration-eligibility

1 in my Year 1 DD class (moving to a cheaper priviate) and none in my Year 2 DD class.

However, we have had 7 new starters in Year 2, which is unprecedented. They have a waiting list in Year 2 now as they have a 15 child cap per class in Pre-prep.

The whole school (2-18y) is completely full. They won't notice if 10% leave as they will fill them quicker than they can get rid of the others.

Large State Sixth Form near us (great results) has a much larger intake than normal this year. Up over 200 students on recent years.

Contextual admissions don't just wave state school children through @CreateUserNames !!!

They are for a small number of criteria which DO NOT APPLY TO MOST STATE SCHOOL PUPILS.

Honestly, the ignorance!

I know of one who left from pre-prep instead of joining Year 1 with the rest of class. However, our school offered a prepayment scheme last year, and I also know many people chose to prepay for one year. That might also delay the impact.

That also apply to many private school kids too .....

My DC go to state school, but I live in an affluent area so I know quite a lot of people who send their DC to private school. Don't know anyone who is pulling them out.

Actually15% new in Dd year 9. But a decent proportion of these will be overseas boarders (most are day pupils). But I think sixth form will reduce year on year as most (including us) will opt for 6th form college. In fact I think sixth form will end up majority overseas boarders. Is this what labour hoped for? Educating mainly overseas children in the private system?

In my DDs school year 2 have left to start at private schools. I think it will be more obvious come the end of this school year next July to know how many will be leaving.

im not sure all private schools have announced how they will handle the increase as yet so some may not pass on the increase some only a part of it and some all. I think that will have an impact.

This is interesting because my experience growing up was the opposite. Same situation in that there were no private options available so everyone went to the local schools but all the kids of wealthy parents who would have gone private if available found each other, all the kids who lived in the same villages found each other, all the kids who grew up on estates found each other and cast iron cliques were formed. There was barely any social mixing, even though the educational experience was the ‘same’ (which is wasn’t do to academic ability streaming) the out of school experience was so wildly different that the kids had nothing in common.
With some state schools already struggling with crowd control and behaviour, is anything being done to help the state sector prepare for a potential load of new problems with an even more diverse student population?

Well, @CreateUserNames yes on that link the phrase is pretty wide but then this link goes into a bit more detail about what they are looking for https://www.undergraduate.study.cam.ac.uk/apply/after/contextual-data.
Do you honestly believe parents of kids aspiring to Oxbridge and educated within private schools up to GSCE, are then being moved into the schools meeting these criteria?

the Opposite- there were a lot of new families joining both my kid’s year groups this week.

Mine aren’t in private school but my ds friend has just left state to go to private school for year 9

No kids in school right now but just to say that I think this will take a few years for the real effect of the policy to shake through.

People who currently have kids in an independent school are likely to somehow 'suck it up' for the sake of their kids - continuity of education/ staying with friends etc.

But schools may find that applications for new pupils at traditional entry points fall off.

As with all changes, it will be hard to work out cause and effect though.

It will also take a while for any proposed changes to state schools to filter through.

And the question no one seems to be asking is how many "previously satisfied with state school" parents are already choosing (and have been choosing over recent years) to move their children to private schools as they are unhappy with their current school?

I do wonder if this might cancel out parents moving the other way due to VAT?

I don't understand your question. Why did you think I claimed they do? I have not indicated slightly. What I have said is the blatant attack on private school parents or children is not just or fair - this appears on multiple front, not only the VAT, but also the contextualisation offering, or, like the reconsideration pool. And lots of courses do have lowered grades requirements for contextualised admission.

www.ucl.ac.uk/prospective-students/undergraduate/degrees/medicine-mbbs-bsc#:~:text=Contextual%20offer%20information&text=English%20Language%20and%20Mathematics%20at%20grade%20B%20or%206.,-Points%2039%20Subjects&text=A%20total%20of%2019%20points,higher%20level%20score%20below%205.

@CreateUserNames

In your Cambridge example, attending a state school alone is not sufficient for a contextual offer. The student would also have to have a home postcode in an area which meets particular deprivation criteria.

Same with your UCL example.

Spoiler alert: even if a student meets a university’s requirements for a contextual offer, and the predicted grades meet the course minimum entry requirement, the student isn’t necessarily guaranteed an offer.

Not a one. I would be surprised if the number of private school places is affected by the VAT increase.

Contextual offers aren’t an attack on private school kids, they’re a recognition that it is harder to get good results when you are poor and go to a crap school.

Private school parents are absolutely welcome to send their kids to crap schools, with big classes and no teachers if they believe it will give their child a leg-up in uni admissions. They might find that it’s really not an advantage after all though.

Economic theory says that raising prices for something should reduce demand, all other things equal. But... the value that most parents get from private school is the perceived difference between that school and the alternatives, e.g., the state school they could have gotten a place at. So parents with good state alternatives should be willing to pay less for private schools and parents with poor state alternatives should be willing to pay more. If the state system were perceived to get worse (I certainly hope not!), it's at least theoretically possible that demand for private schools might go up in spite of the addition of VAT.

I do wonder how much of the real-terms increase in private school fees over the last 14 years was facilitated by the real-terms decrease in per-pupil state school funding and the perception that state provision had deteriorated?

They've all mixed since nursery because it's normal to them. Of course friendship groups form but that's normal too.

I hear the bigger issue isn't people leaving for state, it's those with toddlers or primary school-aged kids in state schools that have now entirely written off the idea.

Hence, these schools don't need to worry about today or tomorrow, it's the day after that's a potential headache.

There are spaces in the year 7 intake of our 6 secondary schools
The all time most popular school has spaces.

There are 4 private/public schools locally, so if people have left, they haven’t overburdened the state system

I know 3 families who aren’t removing, but they’re not starting children as planned. This is what was always likely to happen - parents will avoid disruption for older kids.

Paying fees in advance in June 2024 isn’t necessarily a sign of wealth. Quite a few families at our school took out a loan to do that as the interest rate on the loan is less than the VAT of 20%