How many kids do you know definitely leaving private for state?

[Quodraceratops]

I'd be very interested to know how many children people know of who are definitely leaving their private school for a state school - not people with plans to do so in future years, solely those definitely going now / in 2025.
For myself - large Scottish all years school, I only have knowledge of my early primary kids's classes - no-one leaving so far (but I'm guessing early primary may be less affected as Labour have been signalling this policy for a while so you wouldn't start if you couldn't afford VAT).

Haven’t they always paid twice 1) for unused state place 2) school fees? What you’re really saying is paying/contributing to the state twice!

We aren’t a grammar school county but have many semi-selectives. The private schools have a very high success rate at getting children into them via their academic or music criteria. Depends on the area but we are in one with very selective privates - both primary and secondary

Lots have left after year 11 for state sixth form, also some for other private schools, DC say the DC say their peers going to state say it is for financial reasons. There seem to be only a handful of new joiners and those are from other private schools. (Surrey with popular state sixth form options also lots of private ones)

I guess you meant the bursary students? However, the unfairness against private school parents and children do not apply to the bursary students.

Yes that’s what I meant.

Only people I know have just moved their year 8 to the private from state

None.

They moan about the VaT but every single one is leaving their child in and every single one with younger children not yet in private (who use state primary) are still planning to send them.

But I'll be honest of people did choose to change from private to state around here I'll be glad.

We've had state schools closing because pupil numbers are too low and children being bused around and sometimes quite a distance as closest schools are full.

We've also had 3 private schools close in past 8 years (so nothing to do with VAT) and that's filled the others up.

None. Intake as usual despite the lower birth rate

I’m not sure the pupils leaving for state sixth form is the VAT rise, in my old home town (York) and my current (in the South East) day pupils often left/leave private for state at sixth form because state colleges got results that were as good without a £30k a year price tag.

None, and from all I hear it hasn't got easier to get into good private schools.

We have just moved to state selective, started yesterday, and so have a few others from our school.

What will be interesting is how Labour eventually manipulate the figures and use clever words to claim what a success this has been. Whilst it will of course bring more money in, it won't be as much as they claim.

In theory they should be able to say education budget is a, plus the annual increasing it by is b and then all the money from the VAT is c. I bet we won't see these figures. Neither will we know how many people gave up work/went part time as they no longer needed to pay fees thus reducing tax take, the increase cost to the military (taxpayer) of paying VAT the fees paid for officers children, the increase in those from wealthier backgrounds getting grammar places due to be able to tutor, the increase in those taking 'contextual' places at uni as they are now at state school but have been tutored/given of support required. Those that have SEN children who now can't afford it and make the state pay. I also wonder if some people may definitely stop at one child as that's all they can afford to send private?

If Labour wanted to tax private schools they could have done this instead much fairer and better way. There are much more pressing areas that need addressing, I wonder when they are going to level up state school provision?

My DS is going into sixth form and about 8 of his mates have switched to a state sixth form college. Other DS going into Y9 has lost 6 fro his year (that i know of). I think people are trting to do it around natural break points like Y11/12 and Y8/9. Local state sixth form was totally full this September no WL places for first time as big increase in numbers from VAT refugees.

None that I know of, we have had more join in middle school. That said, I do know a small number are planning to move their child to state for A levels as many universities now actively mark down children from private school backgrounds.

On a side note, the local college has had more than 2000 applicants for 800 places! A staggering increase. Double the amount taking resists in core subjects which is concerning that they might not have had the right support at school.

We’ve had a child move from private into my DS’s class at state primary (Y5). As others have said, from the chat on the playground the main impact appears to be that a much lower percentage of last year’s Y6 has gone private for secondary than would normally be the case (in anticipation of VAT), and lots more of the new Y6 are sitting grammar / partially selective state exams instead of, rather than as preparation for, private entrance exams. I agree that the fall in numbers will be felt at natural transition points (Y3, Y7, Y9, Y12) and people choosing not to start rather than pulling out their children who are already settled and close to exams. We’re in North London, relatively affluent area but insane house prices so school fees on top of mortgage is a significant amount of money.

Not all bursary students but they are more likely to be eligible. Different universities offer different contextual considerations. Sometimes it's as simple as a postcode of home address, sometimes it's young carer status, sometimes it's neither parent went to university.

My son at a state school isn't going to get a contextual offer either. We don't live in a polar 1 postcode, his school is national average. I don't think he is punished. He is just not eligible. Most state school students aren't getting a contextual offer so I can't see how it's a bias unless you feel they are e being punished also.

Seems a common misconception that it's not as black and white as state school = contextual. I'm willing to bet the state schools, many of these kids are moving to are not in the "contextual" group.

None.
There are absolutely no private schools where we live, unless you want to board over 100 miles away.
Students of all backgrounds mix just fine.

Most fee paying private school children won’t have contextualised offer, unless other specific concerns of course.

The chances of private educated children do not qualify for contextualisation admission is a lot higher than state educated children.

And yes, I disagree with contextualisation admission by principle, state or private.

None. I suspect the change will be felt less with current pupils (where parents will do whatever it takes to keep their child in school) and more with future pupils, where more parents will decide at the outset that private is unaffordable.

None

That's why I am mentioning it. I'm not trying to nark. I just want people to make an informed choice. If they can't afford to stay, they can't afford it. If your child will get the same grades wherever, it doesn't matter. But don't move thinking it won't matter if my child gets lower grades as they will get lower offers, without first checking that is the case for the school you go to for the courses they are interested in.

I'm actually watching this thread, mainly to see if I will have a job in a year or two. It's all very worrying.

My DD (just left Year 13) went to a state school with below average results.
She didn't get a contextual offer. This trope of state schools being prioritised is a private school parent fiction.

To answer OP's question - I know of none and our local private schools are reporting no change to normal movement/admissions.