How many kids do you know definitely leaving private for state?

[Quodraceratops]

I'd be very interested to know how many children people know of who are definitely leaving their private school for a state school - not people with plans to do so in future years, solely those definitely going now / in 2025.
For myself - large Scottish all years school, I only have knowledge of my early primary kids's classes - no-one leaving so far (but I'm guessing early primary may be less affected as Labour have been signalling this policy for a while so you wouldn't start if you couldn't afford VAT).

None but then my DC are a bit older DP I don't know many families with DC in a private school anymore.

One if our local independent schools had announced this week that their Primary School is closing from the end of this term.

I guess that they didn't have enough in the new intake.

4, 2 left end of last year for Grammars. Dd won't be able to stay for 6th form so will be leaving sooner than anticipated. Dd also will attend a Grammar that gets much worse results and full of Hooray Henry types. Dd is dyslexic but on track for all 8-9 GCSE. How she will fare without dyslexia support will be interesting and not an experiment I am keen to run.

2 out of class of 20, and at least 1 more likely.

dc1 yr11 - one classmate left over the summer (school waived the usual term’s notice)

everyone else hanging out for the end of yr 11. It’s a school where most dc move at end of yr11 as the sixth form very small.

there was a poll this week and 80% of the current yr 11s are applying for grammar school places. Usually it would be 10%. All due to VAT, not because they’ve suddenly gone off the private sixth forms in the area. All entirely due to VAT.

the impact of VAT DC1 school will be £8k + (rising with inflation and fee increases over the years x2 or 3 dc) and for many of the families where both parents working flat out and grandparents supporting (ie no trusts funds or millions here) : it’s just tipped it into unaffordabilility.

as per pp, because of the notice requirements, the mid year increase and the fact that people will hang on to a natural moving point, the impact of VAT will take a while to filter through fully.

also, while some schools are absorbing some or all of the VAT in January they won’t be able to continue that indefinitely.

But that's ok because:

• the year groups are now in a process of shrinking (if there's a transfer from previous potential private ed then in big cities it keep some good state schools open, or still open across two sites)
• and it gives some time for the VAT income to be funnelled into the state a system

None here yet, going into Year 6, but every single family I have spoken to so far is now considering alternative options for secondary, whether that is day instead of boarding, or state/grammar.

I think there be little movement in the numbers of existing pupils as people are backed into a corner and don’t want to disrupt there child’s education
but I think where we will see the impact is the number of new pupils starting

I don't know any leaving. But lots more got into our local selective indy from the wait list this year over the summer as people gave up places, so i guess the academic level will be a little lower.

Those saying there will be an influx to state forget that every year there are children who apply to their local private school but don't pass the entrance exam, so i suspect there will not be fewer children attending independent school going forward but rather different children and schools will perhaps be less able to be as selective.

None and think Labour are spot on

No one? How naive. I'm on a Facebook group where hundreds of parents are taking their kids out of private as a result of VAT and a lot of them a having a big problem finding any state school places at all. Some are being told they'll have to attend a state school an hour's drive away, which of course the council has to pay for. Lots of parents, especially those with SEN children, are going to have to homeschool as there just aren't appropriate places out there for them.

I question the value of private education now that (1) parents are punished by paying for education twice (once for unused state place, once through added tax); (2) children are being punished for being privately educated by university admissions policy! Now the whole point becomes having to pay for one because there are no decent state school choices nearby! And being punished!

Parents who have invested tens of thousands in their children’s education are not about to make sudden decisions and pull them out for any state school with a place. They will make sacrifices/cut back/borrow in the short term to ensure stability. Our small prep has had a dip in numbers for reception entry over the past two years - partly due to vat threat and lower birth rates.

The next transition point will have far far more children entering state however and the local state schools have had a massive rise in 11+ applications, particularly those with any sort of academic selection criteria. This is only going to intensify further and further in years to come.

Labour have strategically applied this policy mid year so they can claim success and that children have not switched. Let’s see how much money they’re making in 5 years time

How are university admissions policies punishing them?

In Kent hasn’t it always been the case that private schools are where you go if you fail the test for the better schools?

Two from my DDs class already (Sw London girls day school) - one doesnt have a state school place yet to go to either.

Another one definitely by the end of this year.

This is Y8.

Contextualising admissions; also admission staff have openly stated they cut some slack on grammar mistakes etc if candidates are state educated and a straight refusal if candidates are privately educated!

The fees haven’t even come in yet. I find it astonishing that you are taking your child out of formal education and disrupting them to this extent. And presumably this means you or your partner has the luxury of not working and not looking after other small children?

I think it’s really hard to know as there will be people joining as well as leaving. Until people know the full affect of the fees, and if they’ll actually come in. It’s a bit early to jump ship is the impression I’m getting from people. The wealthy have paid in advance and will avoid the VAT, they’ll still pay the ‘inflationary’ rise which has been anything but inflationary, this year is the lowest it’s been in Sept at 6.75% last year it was 8%. I imagine it’s also put off many that would have joined.

I think it’ll take until the end of this academic year and the start of Sept 25 to feel the full affect.

Very interesting- I wonder when the Oct schools census data is released, that should give definite figures on any changes in numbers. I would be pretty worried if the reception or year 1 numbers were significantly down in my school- that would very quickly affect the viability of the school overall unless it's a massive all years one.

Contextual admissions aren't punishing private schools. Do you think all state schools pupils get a contextual offer and no private school ones do? I work in a private school. We have pupils who get contextual offers.

I dont know about grammar and cutting slack. Not come across that.

I’m not Kent but my eldest would have cruised the Grammar school 11+ but we still chose private, it’s not comparable. Grammar is still a State school and the facilities and opportunities are completely different. Our Private school has a more holistic approach, the pastoral is better and the sports offering is amazing.

My dd going into year 12. Loads of movement for 6th form but all leaving that i know of have gone state. Mostly bursary kids interestingly. 6th form an entry year at our school and around 30 new joiners though.

Year 3- one family.
year 2- 2-3 people.

Interestingly there is only one reception class this year due to fall in demand.

We’ve had two families leave in Yr3 for relocation but all three spaces have been filled and there is a waiting list apparently.

They might apply for grammar but it doesnt guarantee they will get in. Round here there is a trend of kids going to private because they didn't get the grammar place. Privates are not as selective as they like to imply

But the tax influx is not meant to be a one-off, right? In some ideal scenario where they hire 6,500 new teachers, they need to maintain that tax revenue to actually pay those salaries year in and year out.