How many kids do you know definitely leaving private for state?

[Quodraceratops]

I'd be very interested to know how many children people know of who are definitely leaving their private school for a state school - not people with plans to do so in future years, solely those definitely going now / in 2025.
For myself - large Scottish all years school, I only have knowledge of my early primary kids's classes - no-one leaving so far (but I'm guessing early primary may be less affected as Labour have been signalling this policy for a while so you wouldn't start if you couldn't afford VAT).

You need to ask this question in a year’s time.

When the announcement was made, most parents were already committed to this terms fees. In all likelihood their children are still at the school as a result whilst they try and get a state school place.

Also most parents will only move their child at the end of an academic year if they can to minimise disruption.

The most likely effect is people will switch to state at the natural 11+ and 16+ stages as opposed to pulling them out immediately.

Children sitting for the grammars at our school has increased by 40% this year. At my other child’s school the number planning to move for sixth form is also up.

Given birth rates are falling then look at the admissions statistics next March and if the number of applications have gone up significantly then you’ll know why.

This will trickle on and in five years you will be able to see the full impact.

Mine are in state. Of friends that have kids in private, none that I know of.
However, a few parents at my school are reconsidering whether to sit kids for private.

A few but then a few have joined as a local prep closed unexpectedly at the end of last term. That said we are Y6 and a significant number of parents have now indicated they are deciding to not go for private secondary and go state and a number of them have been looking for rentals / moved into them over summer in areas close to outstanding states with a view to eventually selling their homes and moving to the area permanently (as there isn’t enough time to complete a house sale in time for secondary applications).

None, most people can absorb the increase and others may need to “tighten belts” in other areas.

I think this is going to be more common in the coming years. Larger schools in affluent areas will be fine and hoover up those from smaller schools, to fill any gaps due to current pupils leaving. It would happen anyway due to falling birth rate. Private education isn't going anywhere anytime soon. It will just have less choice and be more expensive!

I’d keep a close eye if I were you. Unless your children are a year or two from leaving the school I’d worry the school could decide to close if lack of pupils in the lower years make it unviable. Other parents will already be aware of this and might start to remove their children to other schools, before the rush, compounding the problem.

So it varies a lot depending on which year. In DD school there are approximately 120 pupils per year divided into roughly 7 year groups.

In DD Year 11 there have been very few leaving - say 3 or 4 out of 120. Whereas the new Year 7 has seen a really significant reduction with only 90 new pupils (so a 25% reduction).

Although the Year 7 teachers are safe this year there is already talk about not replacing leaving staff where possible and the unspoken implication that there if this is not enough then redundancies by having less Year groups.

DC moving as well as about quarter of their year group, 12-15 kids

I've heard that 2 left year 9 (cohort of about 70) & 2 left year 8 but a 25% fall in intake in the new year 7 cohort (which may be a better indication - but probably too early to say for sure) Also quite a few leaving at end of year 11 to go to state 6th form
Tbh I think those that have left already may have moved anyway as a term's notice is required (2 terms for Yr 11) & the policy was expected to be implemented in Sept 2025
Would expect a bigger shift going fwd, now that it's slated for Jan 2025, although the obvious illegality (breaching of articles 2 & 14 of the ECHR, & disability & age discrimination) will likely see the finance bill amendment (I.e not going through statute) being unwound in a fairly short time frame.
Those that have paid in advance (prior to 29th July) will however benefit significantly from the window opening to reclaim VAT (I.e lower net fees than the schemes forecast) whilst not paying VAT. It would also be a significant windfall for the schools if the VAT reclaim window was opened for a short time - the culmination of which will mean the policy (though popular with Labour supporters) will likely be a significant loss in revenue to the treasury - which I think the civil service will be whispering in their shell-like

Example of comprehension issues

We are in London with a child in year 6 (so an inflection point). Half the class are planning to try for grammar (unheard of in previous years). Two or possibly more families are planning to move to state outright, with some relief that their children won't sit any 11+ exams.

In the rest of the school, there have been new starters, but interestingly it's from foreign families who have recently moved to London. A fair few. These are people with decent paying jobs who have no intention of messing about with state schools and catchments, and would rather that the school be settled, and they can move house/rent wherever with no restrictions on that front. No new British families.

None. One going the other way from state to private.

Forgot to add: two children left the class last term, citing the upcoming tax and wanting to get ahead of the crowd entering state.

They best watch they don’t get their fingers burnt with that.

Pardon?
I answered the question posed.
Should I point out your 'lack of punctuation' issues too?

Indded.
The entitled will continue to feel entitled though.

Precisely. Parents are unlikely to move their child at this stage or mid year if they can possibly help it. It’s horrible timing.

We will see the real impact next September, especially at the entry points or common move points ie Reception, Y3/4, Y7, Y9/10 and Y12.

Anecdotal: DD1 started at an outstanding (selective by faith but not ability, in top 3% of English schools by results) state secondary in Y7 this week. She said there are loads of people in her form group who are from the private preps in town - they all had to stand up and say what their primary school was, and she also reported that the prep school kids already knew how to tie a tie :D

I suspect a lot of them sat on state school places until the last minute, and may have sucked up losing a term of fees vs 5 years of £7K a term plus VAT

My daughter’s private school has an additional intake in Y4. Was meant to be 10 kids but has ended up only 4 taking up their places.

yes, unfortunately this was always inevitable with the change in policy re VAT. I know it always has happened, but definitely has been eye opening how many started talking about how they would do this if the vat was coming in and already had started to look / make plans before it came in just incase. These are people who could have afforded the £25k a year for the local privates (we are inner london) and were more than happy to have sunk costs to do this so they didn’t have to find the extra £5k+ a year for many years of secondary.

At Reception - 3. 1 left. 2 don’t count as ‘leavers’ as they didn’t accept places due to vat (the kids (with mum) are now going to Switzerland for their education.

At year 6 - 5. They will be going to grammar though, not a state comp.

Between year 7-10 - 20. Mostly kids who have lost burseries and parents can’t afford to plug the difference. These are all kids who transferred from state primaries though.

None. Not the circles I move in. I don't even know if there are private schools in Liverpool tbh.

I know 12 but people aren’t really talking about it - just when the kids go back to school and there are empty desks because they secured a state school place

@softleftpowerstance Kent is a large county - dd passed 11+ but is dyslexic and the grammar school have rubbish SEN - her friends who went say there isn't a single dyslexic there. I wasn't going to send her to crush her by having them put her in the lowest sets and chuck her out in a few years because she couldn't keep up. The Grammars don't get better results than privates where we live, which shows how poor the teaching is (and what a joke 11+ is) when you consider they've taken the top 10% and privates are all non-selective.

Child starting year 11 so none leaving this year but loads have decoded to move for sixth formers who weren't previously planning to.