How many kids do you know definitely leaving private for state?

[Quodraceratops]

I'd be very interested to know how many children people know of who are definitely leaving their private school for a state school - not people with plans to do so in future years, solely those definitely going now / in 2025.
For myself - large Scottish all years school, I only have knowledge of my early primary kids's classes - no-one leaving so far (but I'm guessing early primary may be less affected as Labour have been signalling this policy for a while so you wouldn't start if you couldn't afford VAT).

And if you'd read the thread you'd realise that this will sadly displace other children.

Ah, coming back to apologise. This thread has got bizarre.

To bring it back:

I know 2 that have now moved due to VAT.

My 3 will be going at next natural breaks.

So the £1.6bln is the lie!

So the £1.6bln is the lie!

Everything is lie is these policies. The link - different policy, the same ideology and the same outcome. Was well predicted as soon as it was announced in manifesto, but hey

Labour crackdown on non-doms may raise no money, officials fear | Autumn budget 2024 | The Guardian

They are really inept. I think they need some behavioural scientists on their team, they seem to be unable to predict reaction/action to their policies and comms.

The non-doms are scared of the threat by Labour to charge 40 per cent inheritance tax on worldwide assets, even in trusts. That threat is literally so insane that of course, anyone with options will leave. Truly rich people don’t pay inheritance tax let alone at 40 per cent plus foreign governments are not going to condone their citizens paying the U.K. government rather than their own. Even the private school VAT is causing issues with the French/German governments etc as to their schools in London. I wonder how some of these countries may retaliate? The U.K. Government is discriminating against some elite internationals so I do wonder how that will all pan out.

Seems like the answer to OPs original question was - not many children will actually leave, backing up the governments own figures.
In the future schools will probably have less pupils joining, but that’s a good thing IMHO.

It's so bizarre - the ideology appears to be that anything private is "bad" and must go. And must go immediately! As though we don't live in the real world where needs, systems and operations are complex and need phased management if change must happen successfully. It's like a child, in a fit of pique, has designed these policies instead of adults.

I don't think that is clear at all.

The IFS report worked on the basis of 3-7% leaving - my guess is that you will see 3-5% this year and considerably higher from next September as people start to move out at exit points and never start.

This policy will lose money not make it.

You may well reduce overall numbers at private schools, but it will be replaced with huge use of external tutors.

That becomes a really big issue when half the children in a class are being tutored and half are not.

DD's comprehensive has a very mixed intake and it is clear from the parent chat group that there is a big cohort who have no problems buying tickets for Macbeth in the West End, booking the GCSE workshops at the Globe (£45/ticket) and paying for tutoring for multiple subjects/years. I suspect there is an equally large cohort where these things are completely out of reach.

Two form entry pre-prep and prep day school, approximately 3 per class have left so far. Although we fully expect more to follow after the high court case has reached its conclusion. We are a small school, so although we are able to recruit easily, it’s very unsettling for everyone involved.

No idea how you got to the first sentence. Over the next two years pupils will leave. Lowest estimate we have seen is 3% and highest is 40%.

The £1.6bln quoted is based on 0 pupils leaving which is already therefore untrue.

The likelihood of this policy raising any money is minimal to unlikely. It could cost the state money.

A prep school near me announced last week that it’s closing. It’s been there for 150 years. That’ll be a whole lot of local jobs lost as well as hundreds of pupils needing to find new schools.

Shurely shome mishtake, as it has been categorically stated on this very thread, this very morning, that hardly any children are leaving - therefore those children must be a figment of your imagination

@CatkinToadflax "A prep school near me announced last week that it’s closing. It’s been there for 150 years. That’ll be a whole lot of local jobs lost as well as hundreds of pupils needing to find new schools."

What reasons does it give for closing?

I know several in our county that have been struggling for years, while sticking their feed up well above inflation for a decade or more.
THATs why their closing - poor financial management, pricing parents out, drop in the numbers of children being BORN-
We also have 2 small primaries closing - again lack of numbers, because the birth rate is dropping.
Tiny schools, private or state, aren’t always viable.
Easier to blame it on VAT obvs.

You aren’t going to get much sympathy for the closure of an elitist prep school- even if it has been there 150 years, because most people won’t have used it.
No idea why private parents expect state parents to be remotely interested…

People don't expect you to care - although your use of 'elitist' is a bit chip on shoulder (says more about you).

However, you might well care if it reduces your child's chance of a place at the school you want.

Or reduces your child's chances of being in top sets at their secondary. (Nothing to do with assuming private school children are brighter, but there is very definitely an effect when you have children who are getting a huge amount of additional outside help and are therefore top of the class). Parents who are used to paying fees will find funding extra tuition refreshingly cheap in comparison.

It's not the numbers leaving immediately that's going to cause wider issues. It's the numbers moving to the state sector at the next natural break point, and the numbers who don't join.

So demographic trends that mean there are an excess of reception/KS1 places don't help predict the squeezes that might come if the numbers seeking private secondary and sixth form places fall.

Cities with higher than typical proportions in private school (notably Edinburgh and parts of London) are the ones most likely to see difficulties.

Secondary school applications are open for another month or so, and offers day is in March ( April in Scotland), so that might be when we get the next info on what this policy is doing to numbers.

And school closures do matter - because if there are more DC in state schools the costs to the taxpayer is greater (and any hopes of a reduction in schools budget because of falling birth rate will have to be modified) and VAT/business rates yield lower than predicted. Schools do fold from time to time anyhow, so the odd one won't make a difference, but a spate of them might.

The only people throwing their toys out of the pram are adults who send their kids to private school. The amount of whining is quite unedifying.

It’s a straightforward change, very well targeted on people who can afford it, will barely impact the private sector.

Could you afford another 20% on your mortgage?

Just because you keep saying "people who can afford it" doesn't make it true.

Just admit it - you only care because you think it sticks one to rich people? Perhaps look at the big screw-up Labour have made on non-doms... now predicted to LOSE money for the country. Slow handclap there for Reeves and Free Gear.

None

Parents will pay anything to avoid mixing in a state school

I think anyone hit with a 20% increase on a large bill, you'd feel much the same way!

I expect there will be other groups finding themselves on the receiving end of regulatory and budgetary changes in the coming months - can they expect same attitude to the difficulties that might bring them?

I don't have DC at private school. But I agree with the EU stance that there should be no taxation on education, and think it is a shame that we have departed from this. But Brexiteers are probably delighted that a policy that came about only because we left is so very popular.

Not true!

Enough is enough, mine will be moving and we will be using the £7k per kid per school year I could have always had off the state. HTH

think they need some behavioural scientists on their team, they seem to be unable to predict reaction/action to their policies and comms.

They don’t care. If poshos are punished then any means justifies the end.

Not just for this though, the winter fuel allowance, the nurses with their paltry offer vs junior doctors etc. The shit defence of a posh flat in London. It is like they have had a lobotomy.

Huge numbers of private school parents also use state for some stages of education, or have some children in state and some in private.

I'm one of 4 siblings - between us we used pretty much every form of education available in the UK, from top Public Schools, state grammars, state 6th forms and state primaries.

We all now have our children in state primaries and comprehensives - through choice.