How many kids do you know definitely leaving private for state?

[Quodraceratops]

I'd be very interested to know how many children people know of who are definitely leaving their private school for a state school - not people with plans to do so in future years, solely those definitely going now / in 2025.
For myself - large Scottish all years school, I only have knowledge of my early primary kids's classes - no-one leaving so far (but I'm guessing early primary may be less affected as Labour have been signalling this policy for a while so you wouldn't start if you couldn't afford VAT).

Absolutely none. Have a few friends with kids in private and none have plans to change. Also have friends with kids going into yr7 and they’ve still chosen private even though they knew fees would very likely increase.

None

None that I know of.

In fact, there's been a large intake, but that's because another smaller private school went under so lots of those kids moved across.

@Putmeinsummer at least you have grammar schools in Kent! No such things round where we are, so academic children tend to get sent to to selective private schools instead. I’d love it if the government launches a few state funded grammar schools - would gladly stop paying private school fees… but of course that would mean less money raised in VAT so it will never happen

Normally 35-40 kids entering at reception, this year 21. PP is right, it’s the far fewer entering that will be challenge and impact won’t be realised for a long time.

7 from the school I work at. Many DP enquiring about financial help, and a lot have given rolling notice so they don’t have to give a full term’s notice.

I understand that there are very few state places available so I’m assuming DP are putting their DC’s names down on waiting lists and seeing what come up.

I hate the grammar system. It just creates two tiers and puts 9-10 year olds through the misery of tutoring and/or letting people down if it doesn't work out. I'd far rather just have a local comp and let the richer people go off to private if they feel their children can't cope in a comp environment.

None. In my circles they can all absorb the increase apparently.

DD is in state, but about 50% of friends are in private, and fairly expensive schools at that (circa £30k for day pre VAT). But they are all substantially wealthier than us. My best friend spends more on holidays annually than we have in total income. They have 4 boarding too. Our house is about as big as their garage…

I know a few that opted for state as they know it’s unaffordable- us included.

One lad Who gone state rather than Staying at old private sixth form

So mostly none then.
All that whinging on and it was all ok in the end hey folks?
Phew!

Fair enough - I can see how that might happen. Grammar schools can be brilliant for the right kids though - we have friends whose kids went to grammars and all were super happy. But I accept they are not for everyone

I know one year 4 child, north London

Absolutely none - heaps of whinging though. Although I agree with a PP that it will be more parents reconsidering whether to embark on it at all rather than those already in the system where we will see the impact

Our kids are in state system, but we have some friends and family in private system. They are all sucking it up, none are moving. However, I also know a few that aren't going private when once they might have considered it. One couple who are wealthy(ish), had initially planned to move their DC to private for secondary, but the oldest has just started at local comprehensive and younger will follow in two years time.

I think it'll put private out of reach for more families. I know one family who are really struggling with fees, they are utterly set on private schools, and I think they'll bankrupt themselves before they move their DC.

2 in know have left and gone to state sixth form.

We are now not potentially not sending dd to private secondary in 2025.

The snowball effects of this policy will take a while to get going and then school closures will kick in and it will really gather momentum.

The purported point of the 11 plus system to produce social mobility, not to provide “free private schools” for people wealthy enough to consider paying school fees.

Posts like this are exactly why we should not be expanding this system elsewhere.

Just one in DD's year group, out of 200ish (large boarding school, year 10). However, we've been told that around two thirds of parents had asked for quotes for the fees in advance scheme over the summer, so it looks like many have dodged the issue (for a while) and are pretty wealthy anyway.

However, almost every parent I've spoken to has said they are seriously considering state for sixth form. We certainly are.

As notice would need to be given on the first day of term I don’t think many people would have shared plans to leave with other parents yet. I would imagine that sensible parents would frame a school move as positively to their children as possible anyway, so wouldn’t be telling everyone that the VAT introduction fee increase was their reason for leaving. The election was called sooner than expected and the policy’s introduction is so speedy too. So way too early to see evidence of the effect on numbers.

PP is correct, this will take time to filter through. People with children going into year 9 or 12 won't have had time to give notice without incurring fees and potentially didn't apply for or can't find a place. People with children starting year 10 or in year 11 are in the middle of GCSE courses. Those starting year 13 defo wouldn't move. No-one wants to disrupt GCSE or A level studies unless they absolutely have to, a lot of GCSE coursework starts in year 9 too.

Movement will start to be seen I think from next year when people can start off in state. It's difficult to get a place at a good state school in year. Many will not bother with prep if they are going state for secondary.

We are in our final year so won't move, only 2 terms of VAT. I haven't heard of anyone moving.

We'll also see pressure in grammar places and why not as all parents are tax payers and these places are state school places open to all.

There will be many consequences from this policy, most of which will not be positive.

I also think that it will affect pupil numbers going forward not necessarily the ones already at private. There are only 10 yr 7 pupils starting at a local private school. It’s a small school but in contrast there are 30 pupils in year 9. I don’t think I would chose a school with such a small year group even if we could afford it.

I've only talked to parents of seven children in YR11, all are finishing the year because they can't/won't disrupt the final year of GCSEs. Only two will be staying on for A Levels.
What a PP doesn't consider is that for some of us we've already had to beg, borrow and steal to get to this point. Everyone has financial limits and we've reached ours.

As PP have said there are 'natural' points where people stay or people go and that's where the bulk of the difference will be seen eg lower numbers starting in Primary or Secondary. If you were entering Y6 (maybe even Y5 if pushing for a Grammar) and any of the years above Y9 you'd probably be looking to hold out until the next natural exit point ie start of Secondary, after GSCE, after A/IB level.

It's not some giant "I told you so" just because there wasn't a mass exodus the day after it was announced. And whilst I agree with the policy, at the end of the day it's worth remembering the people most affected are the kids who are having to change schools through nothing they can control - some will thrive, but some will not.

I know 6 families who have already moved or are trying to move their children.

Also, a friend is a teacher at a private school and says their new intake is down on previous years.

I also know 2 kids that would have been staying on at their 6th form but will now be moving once they've completed year 11. That's not uncommon at their school though apparently so they don't mind moving.

Two in my daughter's Year 10 (London co-ed).

5 have already moved from my child's year and another 3 are apparently moving soon. I presume their siblings have moved/are also moving.