How many kids do you know definitely leaving private for state?

[Quodraceratops]

I'd be very interested to know how many children people know of who are definitely leaving their private school for a state school - not people with plans to do so in future years, solely those definitely going now / in 2025.
For myself - large Scottish all years school, I only have knowledge of my early primary kids's classes - no-one leaving so far (but I'm guessing early primary may be less affected as Labour have been signalling this policy for a while so you wouldn't start if you couldn't afford VAT).

According to the latest ISC census 31.4% of new pupils in their schools came from the state sector. So if some of those kids have siblings, you can be sure that they will either go back into the state sector, if they can, or possibly not join, assuming no SEND etc. Only 29.3% of new pupils came from the independent sector.

The Government are literally ignoring the figures. It won’t make any money and they are scamming the taxpayer for ideological reasons.

”You can be sure” is doing an awful lot of heavy lifting, and calling VAT on fees “a scam” when it’s just a tax is ridiculous.

Honestly, if enough people post their anecdotes on Mumsnet it might add up to data. The post limit is 1000, though.

And you are trying your utmost to have the last word @DadJoke - scammer that you are…

MN is centre left always has been so it is more than anecdote.

I have now signed up to the Torygraph to follow the debate there. Free for the first month! I guess at least they will make some cash out of this fiasco.

I think you’ve posted a lot of unevidenced catastrophising nonsense about this policy, and your response is that I personally commit fraud, or that I am being dishonest? That is pretty low.

I don’t think you are dishonest, just wrong.

@dadjoke - it was meant to be lighthearted, given your username. And you were trying to have the last word.

The Government has not talked to the sector or published a full impact assessment. I stand by what I said.

Well, we’ll see soon enough. And that is my last word.

I signed up to the Spectator during covid. It was the only way to get some facts and sober analysis at the height of the hysteria.

Found I liked it, and have maintained the subscription.

My goodness. What a spiteful and unnecessary comment.

Please show me where I asked for sympathy? This particular school closing has nothing to do with me or my family whatsoever. It does however mean a lot of local children will be looking for new school places, whether they are private or state.

As for why I’d expect state parents to be interested, did I say I did? I
posted on a thread asking about pupils leaving private schools. A whole school closing is relevant to this thread, is it not?

No idea why private parents expect state parents to be remotely interested.

@goodluckbinbin
Why are you on this thread if you’re so uninterested?

Yes, I could, but I do not see the relevance. If I couldn't, I would have to sell up. Those are dire consequences. I don't think using Liz Truss' policies as an example is a good idea.

I think it very cleverly targets people who can afford it, and the consequences of it for the tiny handful who can't (more likely chose not to) is they get the same education as the other 93% of the population.

I'm a top rate taxpayer, and I don't bregudge paying tax.

Why did those kids leave the state sector in the first place?

I imagine that there are parents who send their kids to the cosy state village primary and then absolutely do not want to send their child to the local secondary option.

The idea that they’d be happy to return their child to state education because they previously were in state education assumes the parent would be happy with the secondary state option because they were happy with primary, which may well not be true.

Presumably if a local prep closes it will largely top up the numbers at other local.preps, putting them on a sounder financial footing.

It doesn’t target people that can afford it as it’s not based on income or assets. There are many rich parents who use state schools (like you if you are 45% taxpayer)? Why should they pay less than parents who are not even using the state schools? That’s absurd.

People who chose private school are almost entirely concentrated in the top 5% of earners. It discretionary, and the consequences of not paying minor.

It's also wonderfully difficult to evade.

blogs.ucl.ac.uk/ioe/2021/02/08/housing-wealth-not-bursaries-explains-much-of-private-school-participation-for-those-without-high-income/

It depends. The parents may not be able to afford the fees of the larger schools and/or the larger schools may not accept the pupils if they don’t meet their admission criteria.

There are thousands of private school children whose parents are not in the top 5% income category. And in the top 5% income category there are huge numbers of parents who have children that are state educated. In fact the majority of parents in the top 5% category use state schools. Why do you not expect those parents to pay more for state education?

I've literally shown you the demographics. All taxes have hard cases, but the very worst that can happen in one of these (vanishingly rare) hard cases is that they send their kids to state school. It is one of the best targeted taxes of all time, with the added bonus of it being discretionary. 50% of the top 1%, who are pretty good at minimising their taxes, send their kids to private school. They will pretty much all pay.

The top 5% do pay more taxes, including for state education. We put more in and take less out. That's what a redistributive tax system means.

And the other 50 per cent of the top 1 per cent?

And if you think the top 1 per cent are good at minimising their taxes, why do you think they wouldn’t minimise this tax too, which by your own contribution is discretionary. Bear in mind that “minimising” includes behaviour changes like moving to Dubai for a few years to not pay income tax, precisely so that you can pay the boarding fees plus VAT?

So we have parents removing children from private schools which were the best choice for their child when state schools were inadequate. Even though they can afford the VAT increase, they are going to send their child to a school not as suitable just to spite the government.

Or they'd rather give up their careers and jobs that presumably they found fulfilling, because they were only ever in for the school fees so what's the point?

And now they're all going to move to Dubai just so they can afford to send their children thousands of miles away to boarding school.

And you still claim this is all because you value hard work and putting your children first.

They'll just suck it up. Do you really think a 20% increase in school fees for the top 1% makes the slightest difference?

By best-targeted, you presumably mean that it's targeted to avoid you. And is instead targeted at people who you don't like. Which delights you.

It's obviously not best-targeted in terms of targeting the people best able to afford it (since you've admitted that it misses 50% of the top 1%). Nor best-targeted at the people who will benefit from the money raised (although tbf I'm not a fan of hypothecated taxes).

Not traditional tax best practice...

There are lots of taxes designed to target me. I pay them, and I'm happy to do so. If they stuck an extra point on corporation, I'd be right there. If they want to reduce the dividend allowance for small businesses, I have no issue with it.

I don't think you really get what targeting is. This is a tax which hits only people absolutely able to afford it. It doesn't mean it has to hit every single person in that income bracket, and it is discretionary. If you don't want to pay it, don't send your kids to private school.

Top 1 per cent of income is 160k plus per year. Private school fees in london are 20-25k taking to 30ish with VAT. Someone on that income with 2 kids in private school would definitely see the difference. Take home pay on 160k is 95k minus 60k in school fees- they are most definitely going to notice it and very much so! So I have no idea what you are on about.